Weekly Digest: Trump announces EU Tariffs, Zelensky's NATO setback, Umurzakov's return, and Russia-US relations

The process of restoring relations between Russia and the United States continues. Following Riyadh, the next destination was Istanbul.

However, this is not the case with Ukraine. After the historic clash between Trump and Zelensky in the White House on February 28, the new US administration may reconsider its assistance to Ukraine.

Former head of the Presidential Administration and later Presidential Advisor on Special Assignments, Sardor Umurzakov, attended an official meeting for the first time after a long hiatus.

Russia and the US Narrowing the Gap

The third round of negotiations to restore relations between the US and Russia has concluded. The first round was a phone call between the leaders of the two countries, followed by the second round of negotiations in Riyadh, which was seen as a continuation of the initial dialogue. The chief diplomats from the US, Marco Rubio, and from Russia, Sergey Lavrov and Yuriy Ushakov, participated in the Riyadh talks. It was reported that the participants agreed to maintain constant communication to ensure the timely and effective continuation of the process. Indeed, the process of restoring relations that had been disrupted in recent years is progressing steadily. Just ten days after the Riyadh talks, on February 27, delegations from the two countries met at the US Consulate General in Istanbul. Although the status of the delegation members was not as high as in Riyadh, this meeting is considered another step towards restoring relations between Washington and Moscow, which have been deteriorating for three years. The American delegation in Istanbul was led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sonata Coulter, while the Russian delegation was headed by Alexander Darchiyev, Director of the North Atlantic Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The meeting in Istanbul began at 10:00 local time and lasted for more than six hours. Although the negotiations lasted a long time, there is little detailed information about what was agreed upon or which issues were discussed. It was noted that the Russian delegation left the US Consulate General without comment, and nothing was disclosed to the press. However, the US State Department later stated the Russia-US meeting in Istanbul on February 27. According to the statement, the meeting was dedicated to issues related to the activities of diplomatic missions. The US statement indicated that the discussions resulted in the parties agreeing on specific initial steps to stabilize the activities of diplomatic missions. The US expressed concerns about the need to ensure stable staffing levels at the US Embassy in Moscow and the use of banking and contract services. The statement also mentioned that Deputy Assistant Secretary Coulter and Ambassador Darchiyev agreed to hold another meeting on these issues shortly, with the date, location, and representation to be determined.

However, Donald Trump, as the US President and the only force in the world capable of opposing Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine, does not want to completely lose his influence. While he is working to end the cold relations between the Kremlin and the White House, he is also indirectly limiting Putin's ambitions. As evidence, Trump extended the sanctions imposed by various US presidents in 2014, 2018, and 2022. According to the document in the US Federal Register, all restrictions will remain in effect after March 6, 2025. A few days before this decision, Trump announced that he was not considering lifting sanctions against Russia and that this was not part of the negotiations with the Kremlin. However, he added that the issue would eventually be discussed. On February 26, Trump told journalists that the US was ready to lift sanctions against Russia, but only after the Russia-Ukraine war ended.

Putin, on the other hand, is doing everything possible to maintain the good relations developing between Russia and the US. On February 27, at a meeting of the Federal Security Service board, he stated that some Western elites were unhappy with Russia's rapprochement with the US. Putin accused them of trying to maintain instability in the world. He emphasized the need to use all diplomatic and special services' capabilities to prevent potential sabotage from the West.

"We understand that the restoration of Russia-US relations does not satisfy everyone. Some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world. These forces are trying to disrupt the ongoing dialogue or compromise, and we see this. Taking this into account, we must use all the capabilities of diplomacy and special services to prevent such attempts," said the Russian President.

According to Putin, the new US administration and Russia have promising relations. He noted that there are contacts between the two countries to restore interstate relations and gradually resolve the significant and systemic strategic problems accumulated in the global architecture.

Umurzakov's Return to Activity

Sardor Umurzakov has resumed official activities on behalf of Uzbekistan after a long hiatus. As the Presidential Advisor on Special Assignments, Umurzakov held a series of meetings in Beijing, China. On February 24, he met with Liu Jianchao, head of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, and on February 25, he met with Li Shulei, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and head of the Central Committee's Propaganda Department. According to the Xinhua news agency, the parties discussed implementing important agreements reached by the leaders of the two countries, strengthening inter-party exchanges, and deepening mutual experience in state governance. Umurzakov expressed Uzbekistan's readiness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with China in all areas and to further develop bilateral relations as directed by the leaders of the two countries.

Umurzoqov, who had been relatively inactive for nearly a year and a half, began the current year with new responsibilities. According to the Presidential Decree "On Measures to Effectively Organize Strategic Analysis and Research Activities in the Fields of Social, Political, and Economic Development" adopted on December 31, 2024, he was assigned several new tasks. The decree established a Coordinating Council for organizing the activities of analytical and research structures. One of the main tasks of the Coordinating Council is to regularly submit long-term strategic analytical documents on social, political, and economic development, as well as proposals on the country's internal and external policies, to the President. The Coordinating Council was established as an advisory body responsible for organizing and coordinating all processes of strategic research on internal and external policy issues. Ensuring the proper functioning of the Council, overall coordination, and interdepartmental cooperation was assigned to the Presidential Advisor on Special Assignments, Sardor Umurzakov. The Coordinating Council's structure includes working groups responsible for the following areas:

• Security and social stability
• State and society building
• Socio-economic development
• Foreign policy and international cooperation
• Strategic planning and development of regions
• Environmental agenda, including issues such as climate change and water scarcity

It is currently unclear whether Umurzakov's visit to China marks the end of his long period of inactivity. However, many remember his highly active political career as the head of the Presidential Administration from July 16, 2022, to August 17, 2023. On August 17, 2023, he was relieved of this position, and the reasons for his removal were not disclosed. Following his departure, the position of head of the Presidential Administration was also abolished. Sardor Umurzakov was not left without a job, as he was appointed Presidential Advisor on Special Assignments on the same day. However, since then, he has not been as visible to the public as before.

Since August 2023, the former head of the Presidential Administration, Sardor Umurzakov, had not been seen in public until June of the previous year. His photo performing Hajj rituals in Mecca was circulated on social media. Umurzakov stayed at the "Al Alayam Elite" hotel along with other Uzbek pilgrims and stated, "I came to perform Hajj like ordinary people." A month later, on July 28, Shavkat Mirziyoyev's advisor on economic development, effective governance, and international cooperation, Suma Chakrabarti, wrote on his X platform page about meeting with Sardor Umurzakov and former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili. Chakrabarti referred to Umurzakov and Kvirikashvili as two reformers.

"Tonight, I had an excellent conversation with Presidential Advisor on Special Assignments Sardor Umurzakov and former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili. Two reformers who have done a lot for their countries," Chakrabarti wrote.

25% Tariff on European Goods, No NATO Membership for Ukraine

On February 26, Donald Trump held the first government meeting of his second term as President. During this meeting, Trump delivered unfavorable news to the EU and Ukraine. Specifically, Trump announced that the US would soon impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, and that the decision had already been made. He also emphasized that the EU was established to undermine the United States and had succeeded in doing so, likely referring to the differing tariff policies between the two entities.

"We made a decision, and we will announce it soon. In general, it means 25%, and it will apply to cars and similar items... I love European countries. I love all countries for many reasons, but the European Union was created to break the United States. That was the goal, and they did an excellent job," he said.

According to Trump, these measures are aimed at protecting American manufacturers and creating equal conditions for local goods in the market. He also stated that the tariffs are a response to the European Union's trade policies and an opportunity to support the American economy. According to Reuters, the European Union imposes a 10% customs duty on passenger cars, which is four times higher than the US customs duty of 2.5%. Additionally, the 17.5% or higher value-added tax in EU countries is cited as one of the main reasons for American officials' dissatisfaction.

In response to Trump's criticism, the EU stated that it is the world's largest free market and warned that it would respond firmly and swiftly to any unjustified barriers and tariffs on fair trade. EU officials have issued similar warnings before. However, tariffs have not yet been increased, and there is still an opportunity to resolve the issue without escalating it into a "trade war." In light of these warnings, an EU official promised to "facilitate trade, reduce costs for American exporters, and harmonize standards and regulations across 27 countries."

During the same meeting where Trump announced the 25% tariffs on certain EU products, he also made concerning statements about Ukraine's security. Donald Trump stated that Washington would not offer additional security guarantees to Kyiv and would leave the matter to Europe. Additionally, the US President told Ukraine to "forget" about NATO membership, suggesting that the war started because of Ukraine's desire to join the North Atlantic Alliance.

"I do not plan to provide additional guarantees beyond the existing ones. We will leave this matter to Europe. However, we will certainly try to ensure that everything goes well," Trump said.

He also mentioned that Washington might support the deployment of European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and expressed confidence in the ability to stop the war. Trump emphasized that the agreement would be "good" for Ukraine. According to him, the US would try to help Ukraine regain some of the lost territories, but it would be a complex process.

Post-White House Clash Situation

Following the historic clash between Trump and Zelensky in the White House on February 28, relations between Ukraine and the US faced a serious test. After the heated argument with Trump, Zelensky immediately had phone conversations with French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Council President Antonio Costa. It is reported that the US has already begun taking measures against official Kyiv. Initially, there were reports that the US had stopped funding Ukraine's energy sector. Subsequently, The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration was considering halting all military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky's statements in the Oval Office. According to the source, the decision could affect billions of dollars' worth of supplies, including radars, armored vehicles, ammunition, and missiles.

According to CBS News, after Zelensky's visit to the White House turned into a 10-minute debate, Ukrainian officials tried to revive the natural resources agreement. However, they were told that continuing the dialogue was pointless. Sources reported that US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz informed Zelensky that he had made a significant mistake, causing harm to both Ukraine and the US, before asking him to leave the White House. After Zelensky left the White House, European officials called Washington to ask how the agreement could be salvaged. However, Trump no longer wanted to speak with Zelensky, and there was growing uncertainty within his administration about how to help end the military actions. According to Axios, one of the minor but significant factors that angered Trump was Zelensky's failure to wear a suit. Sources said that Trump's advisors had repeatedly explained to Zelensky's team that abandoning the military style during the White House visit would be more respectful. However, it appears that Zelensky ignored this advice. After the contentious meeting, Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, responding to Trump's accusation that he "does not want to stop the war" by saying, "No one wants the war to end more than Ukrainians." He also stated that he did not make any mistakes during the White House meeting and refused to apologize to Trump.