Assessing the risk: Water shortage in Uzbekistan and Central Asia

Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asian sector of the National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has recently predicted that Central Asia will face a chronic water shortage by 2028. Speaking at an online roundtable on "Climate Change and Problems of Water Resources Use in Central Asia" on February 18, he highlighted the inefficiencies in the regional water management system.

"There is no international institution with extensive authority for water resources management. While countries engage in bilateral and trilateral negotiations, the overall system for resolving water issues remains complex. No institutions are developing a common strategy beyond water distribution. However, some progress is being made; for instance, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to jointly implement a project on 'Qambar Ota.' This is a positive step but not sufficient," the scientist noted.

Pritchin's claims have confused Uzbeks, leading to alarmist posts on social media, such as "water shortages will increase" and "a liter of water will be more expensive than gasoline." QALAMPIR.UZ sought a response from the Ministry of Water Resources regarding the Russian scientist's comments. According to the ministry's press service, Pritchin's remarks misinterpret the current water resources situation in the region and demonstrate a profound lack of understanding.

"The spread of such baseless opinions and information misleads the general public, especially young people, creating negative attitudes toward the topic. Significant importance is placed on further developing cooperation for the rational use of transboundary water resources in Central Asia. Specifically, Uzbekistan is consistently developing relations with Central Asian countries on water issues within the framework of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFASS) and the Interstate Water Coordination Commission (IWC), as well as through intergovernmental working groups and joint commissions on water use. In recent years, mutual agreements with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan have resulted in positive outcomes in improving water supply levels in the Syrdarya and Amu Darya basins," the ministry official stated.

Additionally, the ministry's press secretary, Shukhrat Suyunov, projected that by 2030, Uzbekistan would face a water deficit of 15 billion cubic meters. He cited the following factors as contributing to this situation:

"On average, the country withdraws about 50-51 billion cubic meters of water annually, with approximately 20 percent originating within Uzbekistan and the rest from neighboring countries. Due to climate change, water resources are decreasing every year, while demand is increasing proportionally with the population."

Russian scientist Pritchin also mentioned that population growth impacts the situation. He pointed out that the region is rapidly developing, with demographic changes, and Uzbekistan is leading this trend.

Fact: As of December 2024, Central Asia's population exceeded 80 million, with Uzbekistan having the largest population in the region at over 37.5 million.

The expert further stated that, according to various estimates, up to 50 percent of the water intended for irrigation is lost before reaching the fields due to inefficient water resource use. The ministry spokesman responded with the following example:

"In 2024, 555 kilometers of canals were reconstructed across 75 facilities using state budget funds, with 433 kilometers of canals concreted. Additionally, 160 kilometers of canals were modernized in the Fergana Valley. Under initiatives by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Karakalpakstan and regional governments, 13.5 thousand kilometers of internal irrigation networks were established by clusters and farms. Filtration (absorption into the ground) in concreted irrigation networks decreased, improving the water management system and water supply to 300 thousand hectares of land. The efficiency of the irrigation system and networks increased from 0.66 to 0.67. Water-saving technologies were introduced across 28 thousand hectares nationwide before 2018, increasing to 1.9 million hectares (44 percent). In 2024 alone, 2.5 billion cubic meters of water were saved using water-saving technologies and laser equipment in crop irrigation."

Furthermore, Shukhrat Suyunov told QALAMPIR.UZ that more than 90 percent of Uzbekistan's water resources are utilized for agriculture. The country has the largest number of irrigation and land reclamation networks, and the largest water management infrastructure in the region, with an irrigated area of 4.3 million hectares. Additionally, over 60 percent of the land is irrigated using pumping stations, and about 50 percent of the irrigated areas are saline to varying degrees, complicating the tasks.

"Therefore, if our President declared 2024 as the 'Key Year for Reducing Water Losses in Irrigation Networks,' 2025 has become the 'Year of Increasing Pump Efficiency,'" said Suyunov.

For reference, 71 percent of the Earth's surface is water. Of this, 97.2 percent is salt water in the oceans, and 2.8 percent is fresh water. However, not all of this is usable, as two-thirds of the fresh water is in glaciers or underground. This makes water a highly valuable resource, especially for Uzbekistan, which has a variable continental climate and consists mainly of deserts.

QALAMPIR.UZ also asked the Ministry of Water Resources how Uzbekistan plans to cope with water shortages following the launch of the Qoshtepa Canal.

For your information, the Qoshtepa Canal, constructed by Afghanistan's interim "Taliban" government starting in 2022, is intended to receive water from the Amu Darya. The canal, which is expected to be completed in three stages, will be 285 kilometers long and 100 meters wide. Public concern exists over the future of the Aral Sea and Uzbekistan's agriculture. In 2023, Uzbekistan's Minister of Water Resources Shavkat Khamroyev announced that "other forces" were behind the Kushtepa Canal project.

According to Suyunov, the canal's full operation could impact the economic sectors of regions downstream of the Amu Darya, including agriculture, during years of water scarcity.

For reference, the Amu Darya, which begins at the confluence of the Panj and Vakhsh rivers in the foothills of the Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan, flows through Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan, and eventually into the Aral Sea, is 2,400 kilometers long. According to the Scientific and Information Center of the Central Asian Interstate Water Management Coordination Commission, in 2023, Turkmenistan used the most Amu Darya water (42 percent of the river's water - 6,741.7 cubic meters per capita). Uzbekistan used 38.4 percent, and Tajikistan used 19.8 percent. No data is available for Afghanistan, but it ranks fourth in the usage list.

Given the current situation, Uzbekistan has already started water-saving measures. According to the press service, the Ministry of Water Management will undertake the following actions in 2025:

"Pumping stations will be modernized, 570 kilometers of main canals and 15 thousand kilometers of internal economic networks will be concreted, reducing water losses. Additionally, the total area of water-saving technologies will be expanded to 2.4 million hectares. The sector will be digitized, and 10 billion cubic meters of water will be saved in agriculture this year alone," said a ministry official in an interview with a QALAMPIR.UZ correspondent.

Suyunov also mentioned that the DSHMK, which has been operating for over 30 years, distributes water resources among regional countries without conflicts.

It appears that the countries downstream of the Amu Darya are attempting to "solve" the water shortage by maximizing water conservation and modernizing its use. However, for these countries, whose main economy is agriculture, this may not be an easy task. In conclusion, it can be said that both governments and individuals must take the global issue of fresh water shortage seriously and responsibly.