Weekly Digest: Tensions rise over Qoshtepa, drunk driving, Syria, and Trade Wars

The Hidden Truths Behind the Qoshtepa Canal

In 2022, the Taliban initiated a project that sparked significant concerns across Central Asia—the construction of the Qoshtepa Canal. This canal, expected to have severe consequences for water distribution in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, was met with alarm from neighboring countries. In 2023, Uzbekistan's Minister of Water Resources, Shavkat Khamroyev, hinted at the involvement of "other forces" behind the project. This week, one of those alleged forces was identified.

Reports suggest that the construction of the Qoshtepa water facility in Afghanistan was covertly funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), with financial support continuing even under Taliban rule. Over the weekend, the Russian newspaper Izvestia, known for its long history of state-aligned reporting—from the Soviet era to Putin’s Russia—published an article on the matter. According to the report, the canal's construction has cost an estimated $700 million and is now 80% complete. However, with USAID funding facing uncertainty, construction may come to a halt.

Izvestia reiterated concerns long raised by experts, warning that the project lacks proper oversight. The crude excavation techniques used in building the canal could lead to disruptions in the irrigation system and severe environmental consequences. Diverting water from the Amu Darya River could trigger a water crisis in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The underlying motive behind USAID’s involvement, as alleged in the report, is to destabilize Central Asia while maintaining influence over Kabul.

Poor Construction and Environmental Risks

Some points raised in the Izvestia article seem difficult to dispute. If USAID has indeed financed the canal while it is being built under Taliban control, it is reasonable to expect that the construction would be conducted in an unsophisticated manner. Evidence of this surfaced at the end of 2023, when a major accident occurred at the site, which the Taliban failed to address. The canal experienced a significant water leak that rapidly expanded. By November 5, the flooded area covered 19.5 km²; by November 25, it had grown to 23.8 km²; and by December 13, it had reached 30.3 km². No corrective measures were taken. Experts attributed the leak to the canal walls’ inability to withstand the force of water diverted from the Amu Darya. However, Afghan engineers claimed that water was intentionally redirected at the 75.6-kilometer mark to regulate groundwater levels.

The Qoshtepa Canal is planned to be completed in three phases. According to representatives from the Afghan National Development Corporation, the second phase—located in northern Afghanistan—is already 81% complete, while work on the dam has reached 67% completion. This phase, which commenced in 2024, was originally set to be finished by March 2025.

However, as Izvestia highlighted, $700 million in funding for the canal reportedly came from USAID. With the Trump administration freezing USAID assistance, the future of the project has become uncertain. Sources familiar with the situation claim that USAID originally began financing the project under the previous Afghan government. After the Taliban took power, funding allegedly continued despite Washington’s official stance against the group. The Izvestia report further suggests that financial support was deliberately concealed through various channels.

According to these sources, the United States played a “double game” by maintaining financial influence over both the Taliban and the broader region. On one hand, continued funding increased the Taliban’s reliance on external financial aid, giving Washington a degree of control over Kabul. On the other, the depletion of water resources in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan could escalate tensions, potentially destabilizing Central Asia.

The idea of diverting Amu Darya’s water to irrigate northern Afghanistan’s deserts dates back over 50 years to the tenure of the country’s first president, Mohammad Daoud Khan. However, these plans were shelved following the 1979 revolution and the ensuing civil war. The project was revived in 2018 under former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

As envisioned, the canal is to span 285 kilometers in length and 100 meters in width, providing irrigation for agricultural lands in the Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab provinces. However, the Amu Darya, a vital water source for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, has seen significant declines in its water levels in recent decades. Experts argue that Qoshtepa’s construction will only worsen this crisis, upsetting the delicate balance of water distribution.

The Central Asian Interstate Water Management Coordination Commission estimates that the new canal would divert up to 70% of the Amu Darya’s downstream water supply, leaving only 30% for lakes and wetlands reliant on the river. This could accelerate desertification and intensify regional droughts.

Hundreds of Victims of Reckless "Pianists"

On January 24, during the third plenary session of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis, official statistics on traffic accidents in Uzbekistan were revealed. In 2024 alone, there were 9,364 road accidents, resulting in 2,203 deaths and 8,901 injuries.

Traffic accidents stem from various factors, including excessive speeding, road defects, pedestrian misjudgments, and failure to follow traffic regulations. Some incidents result from mere negligence or unpredictable circumstances. However, one category stands out as particularly reckless: intoxicated driving. Operating a vehicle while under the influence of alcohol or drugs poses a direct threat to the lives of road users. Over the past five years, such incidents have claimed hundreds of lives in Uzbekistan.

At a March 14 meeting of the Senate Committee on Defense and Security, it was reported that between 2020 and 2024, around 600 traffic accidents in Uzbekistan were caused by drunk drivers, leading to the deaths of 322 people. In light of these alarming figures, the committee discussed possible amendments to Article 266 of the Criminal Code, which pertains to traffic safety violations.

The Legal Consequences of Drunk Driving

Under current legislation, Article 266 of Uzbekistan’s Criminal Code states that:

"A driver responsible for an accident that results in moderate or severe bodily harm can face penalties such as a fine of up to 50 times the basic calculation amount, deprivation of certain rights for up to three years, restriction of freedom for up to three years, or imprisonment for up to three years.

If the accident results in the death of one person, the offender faces deprivation of certain rights or imprisonment for up to seven years.

If multiple deaths occur, or if the accident leads to major destruction or other grave consequences, the driver can be sentenced to up to ten years in prison.

Many argue that these penalties are too lenient, given the severe consequences of reckless drunk driving. Public outrage over such cases is growing, with social media users calling for harsher punishments."

As per the Constitution of Uzbekistan, the Senate of the Oliy Majlis holds the authority to propose legislative initiatives. At the recent committee meeting, representatives from the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Ministries of Justice and Internal Affairs, and the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs presented proposals for tougher penalties.

A key suggestion was to increase the punishment for offenders who drive while intoxicated—especially repeat offenders or those already stripped of their driving privileges. The working group is now considering draft legislation to impose stricter penalties on those who drive under the influence of alcohol, narcotics, or other substances affecting cognitive function.

With the rising toll of preventable road deaths, stricter legal measures may soon be introduced to ensure greater road safety in Uzbekistan.

A Historic Week for Syria

Last week was a defining moment for the new Syria under Jolani's leadership. The events of the past days have taken on historical significance, as the pro-Assad Alawite uprising in Latakia, which began on March 6, was forcefully suppressed by March 10, leaving behind signs of a massacre. While this has raised some concerns about the new administration’s approach, interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara stated on March 10 that the crisis in Latakia province had been successfully resolved.

Amid these developments, North Press Syria reported that on the same day, the Syrian interim government reached a significant agreement with the Kurdish leadership. This agreement marks a turning point in Syria’s political landscape, as the Kurdish autonomous administration—which had controlled 30% of the country—has now been integrated into the new Syrian government. Under this arrangement, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have controlled northeastern Syria for years, will integrate their civil and military structures into the national government. The agreement also includes the transfer of key facilities such as border crossings, an airport, and vital oil and gas fields under a unified administrative framework. The implementation of this agreement is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.

Following the fall of the Assad regime, Ahmed al-Shara’s administration has been actively working to dissolve armed groups and consolidate power across Syria. As part of this effort, the interim president signed a temporary constitutional declaration establishing a five-year transition period. During the signing, he expressed hope that this declaration would “mark the beginning of a new era in Syria.”

The interim constitution retains certain provisions from Syria’s previous legal framework, particularly regarding religious and legal foundations. It stipulates that the president must be Muslim and recognizes Islamic law as the main source of legislation. According to BBC, the new document strengthens the separation of powers, judicial independence, women’s rights, and press freedom. Furthermore, it emphasizes accountability for crimes committed during the rule of Bashar al-Assad.

A crucial aspect of the declaration is the expansion of the Syrian People’s Council (parliament) in overseeing the presidency. The council is granted the authority to remove the president from office or limit his powers. However, according to Al Jazeera, implementing such measures may prove difficult, given that one-third of the parliament is appointed by the president, while the remaining members are selected by a committee under his influence.

The Third Front in the "Trade War"

A new front has opened in Donald Trump’s ongoing "trade war," with the European Union now drawn into the conflict. The dispute escalated after the US president announced in late February that he would impose a 25% tariff on European Union imports, including automobiles. Trump described the EU as an institution designed to undermine American interests, citing historical tensions between the two sides.

On March 12, the United States officially imposed tariffs of up to 25% on steel, aluminum, and select goods imported from the European Union and other trade partners. These tariffs, set to take effect in mid-April, have prompted an immediate response from European leaders.

The European Commission swiftly announced countermeasures aimed at protecting European businesses, workers, and consumers from what it considers unjustified US tariffs. The EU’s retaliatory duties will target industrial products such as steel and aluminum, as well as household appliances and various consumer goods. Additionally, the measures will cover agricultural products, including beef, seafood, eggs, dairy, and vegetables.

Rather than responding all at once, the EU plans to implement its countermeasures in phases, similar to Canada’s approach to US trade restrictions. Beginning on April 1, the first phase will introduce tariffs on €8 billion worth of US goods. A second phase, scheduled for April 13, will impose further trade restrictions on products valued at €18 billion. In total, the EU’s response will impact €26 billion worth of American imports—a figure intended to match the economic damage expected from the new US tariffs.

According to the European Commission, this strategy is designed to apply gradual pressure on Washington, ensuring that European industries remain competitive while discouraging further escalation of the trade dispute.