Uzbekistan’s chances of reaching playoffs estimated at 1%

The Guardian has calculated national teams’ chances of reaching the playoffs ahead of the conclusion of the group stage of the 2026 World Cup. In the publication’s analysis, Uzbekistan national team’s chances were assessed as among the lowest in the tournament.

According to the publication’s calculations, Uzbekistan, which is in the same group as Portugal, Colombia and DR Congo, has only a 1% chance of reaching the round of 32. However, the team’s chance of being eliminated even if it finishes third is estimated at 31%.

The forecasts put Uzbekistan’s chances of finishing the group in fourth place at 69%.

Earlier, it was reported that Ecuador’s 2-1 victory over Germany today, June 26, sharply reduced Uzbekistan national team’s chances. With this win, Ecuador finished third in Group E with four points and moved to the top of the overall ranking of third-placed teams.

Under the tournament regulations, the eight best teams among the 12 sides that finish third in their groups will advance to the playoff stage. At the moment, even the team ranked eighth in this table has three points.

This makes the situation much more complicated for Uzbekistan national team. The team will now face the Democratic Republic of Congo in the final round of the group stage. As things stand, Uzbekistan must beat its opponent by at least four goals to keep its chances of reaching the playoffs alive. Only then will Fabio Cannavaro’s Uzbekistan team have a chance of advancing from the group.

For reference, Uzbekistan will play DR Congo in the final round of the group stage. The match will take place in Atlanta on June 28 this year and will begin at 4:30 Tashkent time.