All roads lead to Ankara: What do Trump and Europe want from Erdoğan?

For a brief moment, global attention shifted from the stadiums in the United States hosting the FIFA World Cup to Ankara, Türkiye. On July 7-8 this year, the next NATO summit was held.

Türkiye, long viewed by the West as a kind of “adopted son,” has now become as vital as water and air not only for Europe, but also for a powerful state like the United States. Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, or the troubled situations in Syria and Palestine, Türkiye stands at the center of potential solutions. Perhaps this is why U.S. President Donald Trump, whose last two years in office can hardly be called highly successful, sees Erdoğan’s government as the answer to all his problems.

Against the backdrop of Washington sharply reducing its spending on NATO, Türkiye, which has the alliance’s second most powerful military, is also becoming Europe’s closest brother and partner. In short, all roads lead to Ankara.

Trump’s gift

On July 7 this year, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Ankara on an official working visit as part of the 36th NATO summit and bilateral talks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan personally welcomed Trump at the airport, and a grand ceremony was held at the Beştepe Presidential Complex.

It appears that the Ankara atmosphere suited the U.S. leader, who was visiting Türkiye for the first time in 11 years. Setting aside his usual harshness and arrogance, he showed the courtesy expected of a guest. Global media widely discussed how Trump seemed slightly caught off guard by the pomp of the summit protocol, while Erdoğan firmly took him by the hand and guided him in front of the cameras.

Indeed, Trump has rarely allowed anyone to do this. He has always tried to present himself as a leader and someone in control of the process. These scenes showed Türkiye as the only force within NATO capable of “managing” and influencing the U.S. leader. Trump’s lavish praise for the host leader, calling him “my friend” and “a strong leader,” was not entirely ordinary. His open statement that “if it were not for the esteemed President, I would not have attended this summit” particularly drew public attention.

“If it were not for the esteemed President, I would not have attended this summit. I thank him very much. As everyone knows and as the press has written, we are very good friends. The esteemed President is doing a very good job. He met us at the airport. He is a wonderful leader, a leader respected by the whole world. From our first meeting, our relationship developed very well, and our relations have always been good,” Trump said.

However, a look at recent history shows that relations have not always been as good as described. Many may remember that a few years ago, Trump himself threatened to completely destroy the Turkish economy. One of the main reasons for the cooling of relations was Türkiye’s removal in 2019 from the program to produce the F-35 fifth-generation multirole fighter jet.

The F-35 is not simply a U.S. product. It is a program created through international cooperation, with the United Kingdom as the only Level 1 partner, Italy and the Netherlands as Level 2 partners, and Türkiye participating as a Level 3 partner alongside Canada, Australia, Norway and Denmark. Türkiye joined the program in 1999 and was one of the partner countries that invested in its development.

Türkiye was not only an investor in the project, but also one of its manufacturers. Turkish Aerospace Industries, or TAI, produced the central and internal fuselage of the F-35 in cooperation with Northrop Grumman, one of the largest aerospace and defense technology corporations in the United States. According to the U.S. government, Türkiye also produced more than 900 other parts for the F-35.

But in July 2019, everything fell apart. The reason was Türkiye’s signing of a contract to purchase the S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system from Russia. U.S. Defense Department officials described this step as a direct threat to NATO security and as exposing the technical secrets of the F-35 aircraft to Moscow. As a result, Washington decided to remove Türkiye from the program.

After this decision, Türkiye lost more than $9 billion in expected participation benefits from the project. In addition, according to a 2025 Congressional Research Service report, six F-35 aircraft belonging to Türkiye are still being kept in the United States, and the $1.7 billion paid for these aircraft has not been returned to Türkiye.

So why did Türkiye, which had good relations with the West, decide to buy military technology from Russia, the West’s rival? There were several reasons behind this political move. First, the need for an air defense system pushed Türkiye to accept one of the available offers. Russia’s S-400 system was far cheaper than the U.S. Patriot system and stronger than the alternatives offered by China and France.

It should also not be forgotten that even before the S-400 issue, there had already been a much deeper rift in relations between Türkiye and the United States. After the attempted military coup in Türkiye on the night of July 15, 2016, which Ankara considers to have been organized by the movement known as FETO, relations between Türkiye and the West sharply deteriorated.

The Turkish government believed that U.S.-based religious figure Fethullah Gülen was behind the coup attempt and demanded that Washington extradite him, but the United States did not fulfill this demand. The mass purges that followed, including the dismissal of thousands of soldiers, judges and officials, cast a shadow over Türkiye’s cooperation with Western institutions and pushed the country close to international isolation. It was during this difficult period that Ankara turned to Moscow to meet its defense needs.

As a result, the S-400 deal was signed, which was interpreted as an open turn away from the United States. This dealt another blow to Türkiye-U.S. relations, which had already weakened.

It should also be taken into account that from this period onward, Erdoğan began turning Türkiye into a country that was not dependent solely on the West in foreign policy, but pursued a distinct, independent and multi-vector policy. Along this path, he began establishing warm relations not only with Russia, but also with China and Iran. Washington could not simply watch this silently.

Eventually, at the end of Trump’s first presidential term, on December 14, 2020, large-scale sanctions were imposed on Türkiye under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA. This began placing serious pressure on Türkiye’s economy and contributed to rising inflation in the country.

Today, however, the situation is completely different. Trump and Europe now need Türkiye’s help. While Türkiye’s ties with Russia and Iran once worked against it, these factors have now lifted the country one step above others.

Does Türkiye no longer need the F-35?

Over the past six years, Türkiye did not simply sit and wait for the F-35 door to reopen. On the contrary, the very sanctions and restrictions imposed on it pushed Ankara to fundamentally rebuild its own defense industry.

Even the numbers alone show how successful this course has been for Türkiye. In 2002, Türkiye’s defense and aerospace industry consisted of only 56 companies and 62 projects, while its dependence on foreign suppliers was close to 80%. Today, this sector has expanded to more than 3,500 companies and over 1,400 projects. Türkiye is now able to produce almost all the military equipment it needs domestically.

The sector’s total turnover has also grown several times over. From $1.1 billion in 2002, it reached $20.2 billion by the end of 2024. At the same time, export figures have also grown significantly. According to independent research institutions, between 2020 and 2025, the country sold a total of $30.7 billion worth of defense products abroad.

For comparison, Türkiye’s annual defense exports have exceeded the annual military budgets of countries such as Iraq, Pakistan, Denmark, Greece, Finland, Egypt and Malaysia.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, Türkiye’s arms exports increased by 103% in 2020-2024 compared with 2015-2019, while the country’s share in global arms exports rose from 0.8% to 1.7%. This leap in the defense industry brought Türkiye to 11th place among the world’s 25 largest arms exporters. Interestingly, during the same period, Türkiye’s arms imports also fell by 33%, showing that the country’s dependence on foreign markets has declined.

Türkiye’s most famous “export product” is undoubtedly unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones. Baykar’s Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı drones have been tested in conflicts in Libya, Karabakh and Ukraine, gaining a global reputation as “battle-proven” products. Today, these drones are used by more than 30 countries in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Eastern Europe. Bayraktar drones quickly became popular due to their technological capabilities and low cost. One Bayraktar TB2 costs about $5 million, which is nearly six times cheaper than the U.S. Reaper drone.

In addition, Türkiye is developing its first modern fifth-generation fighter jet, the KAAN, also known as TF-X. Although this project still remains dependent on foreign partners for the engine, the experience gained from the F-35 has proven useful in developing the body and other components.

Nevertheless, the Erdoğan administration has not completely given up hope on the F-35 fighters. Since the 2021 G20 summit in Rome, when Erdoğan and Joe Biden agreed to establish the Türkiye-U.S. Strategic Mechanism, the F-35 issue has officially been included on the agenda at every meeting held within this format.

However, even after the agreement with Biden, Türkiye has still not received either the F-35 aircraft or the money invested in them. Therefore, within the framework of NATO summits, one of Erdoğan’s main demands has been to restore Türkiye’s participation in the program or receive new military equipment in return for the money paid for undelivered aircraft.

“We do not want to sanction our friends”

Russia is capturing Ukrainian cities one after another and knocking on Europe’s door, while the United States cannot leave the war in the Middle East without being labeled a “loser.” In such a situation, Türkiye’s help has become more important than anything else. Along this path, Trump is ready to reject even the decisions he once made. Trump himself is promising to lift the sanctions imposed on Türkiye.

“We will lift these sanctions. I can say that clearly. We will lift these embargoes and sanctions. The time has come. We do not want to sanction our friends. It is very simple. We do not impose sanctions against our friends,” the U.S. leader said.

Speaking about the F-35 fighter jets, Trump said “this is an issue that will be considered,” indicating that Türkiye may return to the program in the future.

At first glance, the issue may seem resolved — the U.S. President has made a promise with his own words. However, in democratic countries, decisions are not made solely on the basis of a president’s promise. Lifting sanctions and supplying Türkiye with F-35s must be approved by the U.S. Congress.

According to Section 1245 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, Türkiye can return to the program only if it completely abandons the S-400 system. However, the real situation shows that Ankara wants to keep all of its military technologies while receiving the goods it has already paid for.

Therefore, it is difficult to expect a long-unresolved problem to be solved solely because of Trump’s empty promises. As usual, Washington is likely to drag out consideration of this decision as much as possible. As for the sanctions issue, if the United States wants Erdoğan’s help in the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, it will have no choice but to abandon them, at least temporarily.