Plane crash in Kazakhstan: Were birds or drones responsible?

December 26 is a day of mourning in Azerbaijan. The mourning was declared yesterday, December 25, by a decree of the country's President Ilham Aliyev, after an Embraer 190 aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines flying from Baku to Grozny crashed in the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people.  

In fact, on December 25, the main attention of the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States was expected to be focused on the Russian city of St. Petersburg. Because an informal summit of the CIS heads of state was held there. However, the crash in Aktau shifted the focus of attention from Russia to Kazakhstan. Let's take a look at the sequence of events. On December 25, the Embraer 190 aircraft with 62 passengers and 5 crew members departed Baku for Grozny at 7:49 a.m. local time. However, as the plane approached the Chechen capital, at approximately 8:20 a.m., it unexpectedly turned around and began flying towards Aktau, Kazakhstan, one of the alternative airfields for the flight.  

At 10:35 a.m. Astana time, the aircraft reported a distress signal due to a malfunction in its control system. A few minutes later, the crew requested an emergency landing in Aktau, but the plane failed to reach the line where rescuers and doctors were waiting for them.  

A few kilometers away, at 11:28 a.m., the plane crashed, after which kerosene vapors in its fuel tanks exploded. The front of the plane was completely destroyed and burned, and the rear flew several dozen meters. Some passengers left the plane themselves and even helped the injured get out of it. Rescuers and doctors soon arrived at the scene. More than 430 employees of the Kazakh Emergency Service and about 80 pieces of technical equipment were involved.  

Azerbaijan Airlines announced a list of 67 people on board the plane, of whom 42 were Azerbaijani, 16 Russian, 6 Kazakh, and 3 Kyrgyz citizens. The entire crew was Azerbaijani.  

According to the latest data, 38 people died in the plane crash. Among the victims were 15 Azerbaijanis, 9 Russians, and 2 Kyrgyz citizens, while the citizenship of 3 more people has not yet been determined. A separate process of identifying the victims of the plane crash is expected, as the bodies were severely burned. 29 people, including three children, were hospitalized.  

A hotline has been opened in Kazakhstan for relatives of plane crash victims. Residents of Aktau have started a mass blood donation for the victims of the disaster. Aktau Airport continues to operate as usual despite the crash, with the exception of one flight delay.  

As for the crashed plane itself, it was manufactured in 2013. The plane has landed a total of 9,949 times and has a total flight time of 15,257.22 hours. The last full technical inspection was carried out on October 18, 2024, and since then the plane has flown 671 hours.  

The captain of the plane, Igor Kshnyakin, also has extensive experience, with a total of more than 15,000 hours of flight time - 11,200 of which were as a captain.  

As mentioned above, an informal summit of the heads of state of the CIS member states was held in St. Petersburg on December 25. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was also supposed to attend it. However, upon learning of the Aktau plane crash, the President decided to return the plane, which had entered Russian airspace, halfway back to Baku. On the plane, Aliyev gave the necessary instructions to the relevant state institutions to investigate the causes of the accident and take urgent measures.  

He also called Putin and informed him that he would not be able to attend the summit. The leaders expressed their condolences. Other heads of state who had congratulated Ilham Aliyev on his birthday the day before also expressed their condolences to the President of Azerbaijan.  

The Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan has initiated criminal cases under Articles 262.3 (Violation of traffic safety and air transport rules that caused the death of two or more people through negligence) and 314.3 (negligence) of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan.  

Kazakh law enforcement agencies have also opened a criminal case under Article 345 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (violation of safety rules when driving a vehicle, resulting in the death of two or more people due to negligence). The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has also opened a criminal case under Article 263 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (violation of traffic safety and air transport rules).

President Ilham Aliyev convened a meeting at Heydar Aliyev International Airport upon returning to Baku to address the recent plane crash incident. During the meeting, the President stated that he had spoken with the Prime Minister and formed a commission to investigate the accident. A delegation of Azerbaijani representatives was dispatched to Aktau, Kazakhstan, where the crash occurred. Additionally, President Aliyev directed Azerbaijani medical teams to travel to Aktau shortly.

“According to the information I received, an AZAL plane en route from Baku to Grozny altered its course due to adverse weather and headed towards Aktau airport, where the crash occurred during landing. Images of the crash have circulated in the media and on social networks, but the exact cause remains unclear. Various theories exist, but it is premature to draw conclusions. A thorough investigation is necessary. The Prosecutor General's Office has launched a criminal case, and the public will be regularly updated on the commission's findings and the case's progress.

I extend my condolences to the victims and their families. May God have mercy on the deceased, grant a swift recovery to the injured, and provide patience and comfort to their loved ones,” President Aliyev said.

President Aliyev acknowledged multiple possible causes of the crash, including a bird strike, an onboard oxygen tank explosion, or a technical malfunction.

Reports from Grozny airport indicated that the flight from Baku to Grozny was redirected to Makhachkala due to fog and subsequently to Aktau. However, weather data suggested cloudy conditions in Grozny on the morning of December 25, prompting media speculation that the airfield's closure could be linked to drone attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the North Caucasus, triggering the "Kover" operation plan.

The head of North Ossetia, Sergei Menyailo, reported that air defense systems intercepted a drone at 8:28 AM, resulting in debris falling on the Alania Mall, causing a fire and the death of a woman.

Khamzat Kadyrov, Secretary of the Security Council of Chechnya, reassured that Grozny’s airspace remains protected and emphasized the importance of vigilance.

Survivors of the Embraer 190 crash described hearing and feeling multiple explosions, followed by breathing difficulties. Photographs from the crash site show significant damage to the aircraft's tail, with numerous holes of undetermined origin, potentially from an internal or external explosion.

Subhonkul Rakhimov, a 48-year-old passenger, recounted that the plane attempted to land 2-3 times before the explosion. Following the blast, the aircraft changed direction. Rakhimov praised the pilot's efforts, crediting him with saving lives.

When oxygen masks deployed, Rakhimov noted a lack of oxygen, prompting him to switch seats and use another mask. Rakhimov, a resident of Yekaterinburg, was traveling to Grozny for business via Baku.

Eyewitness accounts, cited by ORDA, commended the flight crew for steering the plane away from residential areas near Aktau airport, averting further casualties. Sayin, a nearby village with 1,300 residents, was in close proximity to the crash site.

Eyewitnesses reported that a bird strike damaged the engine, an oxygen tank exploded, and passengers lost consciousness. Mangystau’s regional health department corroborated the cylinder explosion report.

The investigation will determine the validity of these theories. A black box recovered at the crash site is expected to aid investigators. QALAMPIR.UZ will continue to provide updates as the situation develops.