Is Mirziyoyev becoming the face of regional leadership? – Midweek

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s absence from the summit in Azerbaijan is being interpreted as fear of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Uzbekistan, one of the most active countries working to integrate the Taliban into the international community, surprisingly supported the UN resolution condemning the Taliban.

As U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine were temporarily halted, Russia’s invasion intensified. However, reports indicate that deliveries were quickly resumed.

QALAMPIR.UZ’s Midweek program brings details of key global developments up to the middle of the week.

Is Tokayev afraid of Putin?

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev did not attend the 17th Summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), held on July 4 in the city of Khankendi, Azerbaijan. His absence sparked public discussions and a wave of speculation. Kazakhstan was instead represented by its Prime Minister. Kazakh media outlet "Orda" put forward several possible explanations for Tokayev’s decision not to attend. One theory suggests that Tokayev may have avoided visiting Azerbaijan due to strained relations between Moscow and Baku. However, this version seems inconsistent with Tokayev’s record. He is one of the few leaders in the region who has engaged directly with Putin in recent years and openly declared at international events that Kazakhstan does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. Still, like other post-Soviet leaders, Tokayev must carefully navigate between Moscow and the West. The phrase “two steps forward, one step back” could easily describe his current balancing act. While there may be lingering fear of the Kremlin, Tokayev's often firm rhetoric toward Putin complicates the assumption that he skipped the summit out of fear.

Another theory suggests Tokayev’s absence was merely a matter of diplomatic protocol. According to this explanation, it is customary for a prime minister, not a president, to represent Kazakhstan at ECO summits. In fact, this was the case at the previous summit held in Tashkent in November 2023, when Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov represented Kazakhstan. Moreover, the presidents of Turkmenistan and Pakistan also skipped the recent summit in Khankendi. However, Tokayev's absence from the Tashkent summit last year was likely for reasons beyond protocol. At that time, President Putin visited Kazakhstan on November 9 — the same day as the ECO summit in Tashkent — and Tokayev hosted him with full honors at the Akorda Presidential Palace. This raises questions about the claim that his absences are purely formal.

A third and more politically charged explanation links Tokayev’s absence to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Some believe Erdogan is using summits like this one to push for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which only Turkey currently recognizes. Tokayev has traditionally been cautious in matters that involve disputed or unrecognized territories. At the first EU-Central Asia summit held in Samarkand in April this year, regional countries, including Kazakhstan, reaffirmed their commitment to the UN resolution on the TRNC. Therefore, it is plausible that Tokayev avoided the summit to maintain diplomatic neutrality and balance among competing global powers — a strategy consistent with the foreign policy approaches of many Central Asian leaders today.

Is Mirziyoyev taking over the leadership of the region?

However, it is also possible that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is treading carefully to avoid upsetting various political forces, which could ultimately jeopardize his influence in the region. Every country has its own national interests, and there is little room for compromise or debate over those priorities. In this context, the President of Uzbekistan’s recent visit to Baku serves as a vivid example. At a time when tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan were escalating, the Uzbek leader was the first to arrive in Baku. While officially it was a routine state visit tied to participation in the summit, some observers see this as a display of cautious diplomacy that may be excessive.

During his speech at the summit, President Mirziyoyev also condemned the attacks on Iran carried out by Israel and the United States. He warned that military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran could draw the entire region into conflict and trigger a large-scale environmental disaster. He further reiterated his support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state — a stance he has voiced before. Uzbekistan has been the most vocal country in Central Asia in recent years advocating for a just resolution in Palestine and the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

The issue of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) also remains present within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The recent summit in Khankendi was attended by Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan — alongside TRNC leader Ersin Tatar. Despite being part of the Turkic world, the three Central Asian members of the OTS — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan — as well as observer state Turkmenistan, have all officially reaffirmed their adherence to the United Nations resolution not to recognize the TRNC. Nevertheless, Ersin Tatar, following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s lead, continues to attend interregional summits where Uzbekistan is also represented and continues his campaign for de facto recognition. This ongoing effort has not deterred Uzbekistan from participating in such high-level gatherings, indicating a pragmatic approach to multilateral diplomacy.

Notably, on July 8 — just four days after the ECO summit in Khankendi — a telephone conversation took place between President Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders discussed pressing issues related to further developing and strengthening the comprehensive strategic partnership and allied relations between Uzbekistan and Russia. Particular attention was given to implementing the agreements reached at the highest level, especially in trade and economic cooperation. They also emphasized the importance of thorough preparation for the second meeting of the Uzbekistan–Russia Council of Regions, scheduled for the fall of this year, and ensuring its success.

Uzbekistan votes against the Taliban

Last week, Russia officially recognized the Taliban. However, the joy of Afghanistan’s interim government was short-lived. Following Moscow’s move, a series of setbacks began for the group. Most notably, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for the Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, and Afghanistan’s Chief Justice, Abdul Hakim Haqqani. The ICC stated that both men were responsible for ordering, encouraging, or instigating crimes against humanity — specifically gender-based persecution. According to the court, these crimes occurred from the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 and continued at least until January 20, 2025. The UN has confirmed that women and girls in Afghanistan were systematically persecuted through a series of decrees that restricted their rights to education, family life, freedom of movement, speech, conscience, and religious belief.

In addition to these violations, the UN cited other serious abuses, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, and sexual violence. Victims included political opponents and even those who passively resisted Taliban policies. International condemnation of the Taliban intensified further with the adoption of a United Nations General Assembly resolution on July 7. The 11-page resolution harshly criticized the treatment of women and girls in Afghanistan. A total of 116 countries — including Uzbekistan — voted in favor of the resolution, effectively condemning the Taliban’s gender policies. Two countries voted against it, aligning themselves with the Taliban. Surprisingly, those two countries were the United States and Israel. Even Russia, which had just recognized the Taliban, as well as China, India, and Iran, chose to abstain.

The presence of the Taliban’s interim government at the recent ECO summit in Khankendi was welcomed by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who expressed satisfaction at their participation. Just three days later, however, Uzbekistan voted in support of the UN resolution condemning the group. At first glance, this may appear contradictory. But from the outset of its diplomatic engagement with the Taliban, Tashkent has repeatedly emphasized the importance of women’s rights and education in Afghanistan. In that sense, Uzbekistan’s vote aligns with its longstanding position and should not come as a surprise.

The current situation for women under Taliban rule has been described as “a ban on everything except breathing.” Alongside the denial of education and public freedoms, reports of sexual violence and early marriage are widespread. Girls as young as 10 are reportedly being “married off” to men in their 40s and 50s — often in arrangements that resemble human trafficking more than marriage. One recent case drew international outrage: according to Tolo News, a 7-year-old girl in Afghanistan’s Helmand province was married to a 45-year-old man who already had two wives. Despite initial inaction, Taliban authorities eventually intervened and halted the marriage. Both the father and the man were detained — but neither was formally charged. Local sources reported that the only consequence was a ban on marrying the girl until she turns nine.

Residents and healthcare professionals in Helmand expressed alarm over these practices, warning of the deep psychological, social, and physical consequences of child marriage. They stressed that such marriages threaten not only girls’ futures but also their mental health, development, and access to education. Afghanistan’s deteriorating economy has fueled the rise in child marriages. According to the UN, since the Taliban returned to power in 2021 and barred girls from attending school, child marriages have increased by 25 percent, while child births have risen by 45 percent. The case of 9-year-old Parwana Malik in 2021 remains etched in the public memory. Her father sold her to a 55-year-old man in exchange for food, sheep, and land. Thankfully, she was later rescued by a charity organization.

US resumes aid to Ukraine

On July 2, reports emerged that the Pentagon had halted a shipment of missiles and ammunition intended for Ukraine. It was later revealed that the decision was made unilaterally by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, without prior consultation with the White House. The stated reason was concern over the depletion of U.S. military reserves. These concerns were later confirmed, with officials acknowledging that the U.S. stockpiles had been significantly reduced due to ongoing conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East. While initial headlines suggested a full suspension, the U.S. State Department later clarified that the supply of arms had only been temporarily paused. Nonetheless, the brief interruption created a strategic window for Russia, which has a record of escalating its aggression against Ukraine during periods of international distraction — particularly when conflict arises between Iran and Israel. With Ukrainian air defense systems left vulnerable, Russian forces intensified their attacks.

One of the most devastating strikes occurred on July 10, when Russian drones and missiles targeted the capital, Kyiv. The assault injured 16 people, 10 of whom were hospitalized, and killed two civilians. Fires broke out in residential buildings, warehouses, office complexes, non-residential facilities, and gas stations. Several vehicles were also damaged. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that the ambulatory department of Primary Medical Center No. 1 was nearly destroyed in the attack.

Amid this crisis, political tensions in Washington also escalated. After a single phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly realized he had been misled and promptly resumed aid to Ukraine. However, Trump seemed unaware that the arms shipments had been paused in the first place.

On July 8, during a cabinet meeting, President Trump denied having approved the suspension and ordered the immediate resumption of weapons deliveries. “No, I did not approve stopping the arms deliveries,” Trump said when asked directly. He affirmed that the U.S. would continue to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine and instructed Secretary Hegseth to restart the shipments, with a specific focus on Patriot interceptor missiles — a critical component of Ukraine’s air defense system. According to senior administration officials, the weapons package in question had already been allocated by the previous administration and was en route to Ukraine before being abruptly halted. Much of the ammunition is currently stockpiled in Poland and is expected to arrive in Kyiv soon.