Information is provided regarding the state debt of Uzbekistan



Information is provided regarding the state debt of Uzbekistan. As of January 1, 2023, the state debt of Uzbekistan amounted to $29.2 billion, which is equivalent to 36.4 percent of the GDP. By July 1, the debt had increased to $31.5 billion. In 2024, it is projected to reach approximately 37 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These figures were reported in the budget for 2024-2026, presented by the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

Simultaneously, according to the latest financial records, the public debt stood at 36.8% of the GDP. Of this, the external debt of the state was $25.9 billion, while the internal debt was $5.6 billion. In 2023, the budget legislation allocates $4.5 billion for external debt.

In the preliminary analysis, assuming macroeconomic and fiscal stability, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to be around 37% in 2024, 37.4% in 2025, and 37.9% in 2026. Expectations also suggest that the country's Gross Domestic Product may increase from $100 billion in 2024 to $125 billion in 2025 and $140 billion in 2026.

In developing the budget forecast parameters for the next three years, adherence to the "fiscal rule" is essential. This rule sets an upper limit of 60 percent of the macroeconomically safe GDP for the state debt in the medium term. To achieve this, the budget deficit is not to exceed 4 percent in 2024, with the aim of maintaining an average of 3 percent in the medium term.

Furthermore, the budget document indicates that in 2024, the projected consolidated budget deficit is 52.5 trillion soums, equivalent to 4.0 percent of the GDP. This takes into account the foreign debt funds to be attracted for the implementation of state programs. In 2025 and 2026, the consolidated budget deficit is expected to be 3.0 percent.

To ensure that the public debt remains at a safe level and is effectively managed, the Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to take several measures in the medium term:

•    Continue the practice of setting annual limits on the state debt.
•    Reduce currency risks by attracting debt funds in the national currency. In this case, the net issuance volume of state treasury bonds is limited to 25 trillion soums in 2024.
•    Develop and approve a public debt management strategy for the medium-term period, aimed at forming a public debt portfolio with optimal cost and risk indicators, to be submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers.
•    Extend the average term of public debt repayment and diversify public debt sources.
•    Accelerate the process of attracting international investors to the government treasury bond market.
•    Prevent, eliminate, or reduce risks related to public debt servicing.
•    Ensure transparency in the information regarding the state debt.

Overall, the text provides comprehensive information on Uzbekistan's state debt and the measures being taken to manage it effectively.


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