Will Nazarbayev’s fate be repeated under Tokayev?

Kazakhstan is considering a return to reforms from the early years of independence, including restoring a unicameral parliament and reintroducing the position of vice president. Naturally, such changes cannot take place without amendments to the Constitution. Does this mean that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has pledged not to run again in elections, may reverse his word and seek another presidential term? Will his term be reset? These are the questions we examine today.

Do you remember the “Bloody January” events that took place in Kazakhstan in early 2022? On January 2, 2022, protests erupted in the Mangystau Region over a sharp rise in liquefied gas prices. Within days, the demonstrations spread across the country and escalated into a major tragedy. Peaceful rallies turned into armed clashes, arson attacks on government buildings — including the Almaty city administration and the presidential residence — and widespread destruction. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev declared a state of emergency and launched what he described as an “anti-terrorist operation.” He also requested assistance from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, led primarily by Russia. According to official data, 238 people were killed, while thousands were injured and detained.

Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, along with his family members, lost their positions and political influence. Large-scale political and constitutional reforms were launched across the country. “Bloody January” remains the largest and most tragic crisis in Kazakhstan’s history since independence.

Four years have now passed since those events. While public protests have subsided, the reforms triggered in their aftermath — a kind of political restructuring — are still ongoing.

On January 20, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has led the country since 2019 and was elected in 2022 to a single seven-year term, convened a session of the National Kurultai, a consultative body under the president, and announced major political initiatives planned for this year.

The first of these proposals is to return to a unicameral parliamentary system and rename it the Kurultai. According to the president, this reform aims to move away from a “super-presidential” system, strengthen the role of parliament, and increase its accountability to the public.

The new parliament would consist of 145 seats. Tokayev emphasized that quality matters more than quantity, stating that the legislature should be composed of genuine patriots and qualified professionals.

The new parliament may have three deputy speakers, while the number of committees should not exceed eight. It is proposed that the heads of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Audit Chamber, and the Central Election Commission be appointed only with parliamentary approval. Deputies would also elect all judges of the Supreme Court upon the president’s nomination.

Deputies would be elected under a proportional representation system, meaning parliamentary seats would be allocated in proportion to the votes received by each party. The quota for the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan would be abolished, while quotas for youth, women, and persons with disabilities would be retained. The electoral threshold for parties would remain at five percent. Deputies would serve five-year terms. A three-stage legislative process is proposed: first, deputies approve a bill as a whole; second, they approve amendments; and finally, they adopt the law.

A unicameral parliament is not unfamiliar to Kazakhstan. In the early years of independence, the country had a single legislative body — the Supreme Council. Under the 1993 Constitution, Kazakhstan was a parliamentary republic, with the Supreme Council as the sole legislative authority. The 1995 Constitution, adopted by referendum, introduced a bicameral parliament consisting of the Senate and the Majilis.

The head of state also proposed abolishing the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, an institution inherited from First President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and replacing it with a new platform. Tokayev suggested establishing the People’s Council of Kazakhstan as a venue for nationwide dialogue.

“At the new stage of reform, Kazakhstan needs a broad platform or forum to regularly conduct nationwide dialogue on all issues of social development. This platform should include key socio-political associations and structures that contribute to national unity and cohesion,” Tokayev said.

In essence, the People’s Council would become a new state body incorporating elements of consultative institutions from other countries. All ethnic groups, social strata, and regions would be represented. The council would hold the status of the country’s highest advisory body. It is proposed that it consist of 126 members, all appointed by the president, while the chair would be elected from among its members.

“At the same time, the new body will focus on developing proposals to improve domestic policy and will be engaged in promoting and explaining the principles of state ideology, as well as the Constitution and other key state documents,” the president added.

The Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan was established in 1995 on the initiative of First President Nursultan Nazarbayev to ensure interethnic harmony and stability. Until April 2021, Nazarbayev himself headed the Assembly, holding the position for life.

On April 29, 2021, Nazarbayev decided to transfer his powers as chair of the Assembly to President Tokayev. By a collective decision of its members, Nazarbayev was granted the status of honorary chair.

Following the “Bloody January” events in 2022, Nazarbayev’s political influence sharply declined. By parliamentary decision, he was stripped of his lifetime powers as chair of the Assembly of the People and the Security Council. A constitutional referendum held in 2022 also revoked his Elbasy status.

Another major expected change is the restoration of the post of vice president. Yes, restoration. Many people know, and those who have forgotten may recall, that Kazakhstan had a vice presidency from 1991 to 1996. The position was officially abolished on February 22, 1996, by a decree of Nursultan Nazarbayev following constitutional reforms in 1995. Yerik Asanbayev was the first and only vice president in Kazakhstan’s history.

“It is not without reason that people say everything has its time. I believe that time has come. Today, at the final session of the National Kurultai, I would like to present a new and important proposal. This initiative will logically complete the political framework that has been consistently formed over several years.

I am referring to the establishment of the institution of the vice president of the Republic of Kazakhstan and its formal закрепление in the Constitution. The vice president will be appointed by the president with the consent of parliament, by a majority vote. The scope of the vice president’s authority will be determined by the head of state,” Tokayev said.

The introduction of the vice presidency would also lead to the abolition of certain administrative structures that currently support parliamentary activity, as well as the position of state advisor.

The vice president would represent Kazakhstan’s interests at international forums and negotiations with foreign delegations, present the president’s interests in parliament, cooperate with domestic and foreign socio-political, scientific, and cultural organizations, and carry out other tasks assigned by the president.

According to Tokayev, the introduction of the vice presidency and the transition to a unicameral parliament will not weaken the president’s role. He will remain the central figure within the system of state power.

As expected, none of these large-scale changes can occur without constitutional amendments. Tokayev has complained that the Constitution contains a number of ambiguities and errors that need to be addressed by legal experts and linguists.

“It has been established that there are certain errors in the text of our Constitution. Terminological and stylistic inaccuracies were allowed at the time. Within the framework of constitutional reform, we must eliminate these gaps. Not only legal scholars, but also qualified language specialists will be involved,” he said.

In this regard, the president instructed the creation of a constitutional commission tasked with preparing amendments related to the transition to a unicameral parliament and the introduction of the vice presidency, as well as determining the date of a referendum.

This raises the question of how such errors went unnoticed during six previous constitutional amendments. Moreover, under Tokayev’s leadership, constitutional changes have not been frequent. Overall, the Constitution was amended three times during his political career. Amendments in 2017 and 2019 took place while he served as Senate chair, while the 2022 changes followed the third year of his presidency and coincided with a large-scale political backlash against the Nazarbayev family.

To recall the constitutional changes: in 1998, the terms of office for the president and members of parliament were extended. In 2007, Kazakhstan switched to a proportional electoral system and granted the First President the right to be elected an unlimited number of times. In 2011, procedures for early presidential elections were established. In 2017, certain presidential powers were transferred to parliament and the government. In 2019, amendments were made in connection with renaming the capital Nur-Sultan. In 2022, a nationwide referendum amended one-third of the Constitution — 33 articles — and established a single seven-year presidential term.

As a result of the June 5, 2022 referendum, all constitutional provisions related to the status and privileges of First President Nursultan Nazarbayev were removed. References to his special status as Elbasy and his immunity were eliminated.

The exemption allowing the First President to bypass the ban on serving more than two consecutive terms was removed from Article 42. Article 91 was also amended to delete provisions designating Nazarbayev as the founder of independent Kazakhstan and guarantor of its immutable principles.

Lifetime immunity from criminal liability for Nazarbayev and his family members, as well as his lifetime chairmanship of the Security Council and the Assembly of the People, were removed from the Constitution. As a result, the constitutional law “On the First President — Elbasy” lost its legal force.

Following the constitutional reform, early presidential elections were held on November 20, 2022, in which Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has led the country since 2019, won 81.31 percent of the vote.

Prior to this, Tokayev had repeatedly emphasized his commitment to constitutional reforms and stated that he would not hold office for more than seven years. Most recently, in a 2025 interview with Al Jazeera, he addressed the issue again.

“I have already announced that I will step down in 2029. This is both a demand of my people and a personal requirement. The president is not God’s messenger. He is a state manager elected by his people. And in our system, there are only seven years,” he said.

After the expected constitutional changes in 2026, the legal reset of his presidential term appears to be restricted, although definitive conclusions are difficult at this stage.

Under Article 42 of the Constitution, the president of Kazakhstan may be elected only once for a seven-year term. Re-election is strictly prohibited. Amendments to Article 91 classify the seven-year single-term rule as an absolute norm that cannot be changed under any circumstances, including through future constitutional reforms or referendums.

According to current legislation, no “reset” is expected to occur in 2026. Tokayev’s current presidential term ends in 2029, and under the existing Constitution, he is not eligible for re-election. Even if constitutional amendments take place in 2026, restrictions on presidential terms are legally guaranteed to remain inviolable.

So what do you think? What will the upcoming reforms change in Kazakhstan? Can Tokayev use constitutional amendments to reset his term?