Escape or exile?

Did Japarov exile Tashiyev? This question can be described as “topical” today. Videos have circulated showing former head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiyev warmly saying goodbye to several close associates at Manas Airport. The footage was published on the morning of February 17 by his associate Utkirbek Rakhmonov. However, the exact date of the farewell was not specified. According to the post, Tashiyev has temporarily left the country. No details were provided about his destination or the purpose of his trip. Unconfirmed reports suggest he may have traveled to Germany. This raises the question: is it a medical or vacation break, or political exile?

If one relies on President Sadyr Japarov’s interview with the Kabar agency on February 16, Tashiyev will not return to public service after his resignation. According to the president, friendly relations will remain, but he will not be entrusted with any official position. The interview did not specify the reasons behind this decision.

However, Japarov said he personally met his longtime friend and associate after the resignation that caused a “political shock.” According to the president, they discussed everything face to face. He emphasized that Tashiyev should now rest and focus on his health. At this point, anyone familiar with the chronology of events may question how accurate these face-to-face talks were. After being dismissed, Tashiyev stated that the decision had been unexpected and that he had been in Germany undergoing treatment at the time. He also said he was upset that he had not been given the opportunity to say goodbye.

Later, Japarov claimed that before making what he described as a difficult decision, he had called his friend, explained the situation, and warned him while trying to protect him. The conflicting accounts have left observers unsure whom to believe.

Against this backdrop, some commentators have suggested that the resignation had been planned in advance and was part of a staged agreement between the two longtime allies. Considering that such political “performances” are not uncommon, some observers have begun to take this theory seriously.

President Japarov, however, said personnel decisions were made independently and without any agreements or external pressure. According to him, law enforcement agencies continue to operate as usual. He also rejected the possibility of a coup or early elections, saying there are no grounds for instability. The president stressed that the country must be governed “not by force, but by reason,” adding that he personally monitors the work of state institutions and that reforms will continue within the framework of the law.

Japarov also addressed questions about regional divisions, early elections, crime, and the fight against corruption. He firmly rejected rumors that the country could split between north and south. According to him, some politicians previously exploited such divisions in their struggle for power, while ordinary citizens became instruments in that rivalry.

“I will never allow a division between north and south. Such divisions appear when politicians need them,” the president said.

According to Japarov, large-scale personnel rotation has been underway in state institutions since 2021. Governors and judges have undergone full rotation, with southern officials working in the north and northern officials working in the south. This process has covered all government agencies and will eventually reach the village level. The president noted that tenders, land, and other resources have often been awarded to officials’ relatives or close associates, and he pledged to eliminate such practices.

A country divided by mountains

The “North–South” issue in Kyrgyz politics is not just a geographic concept but one of the most sensitive and defining aspects of the country’s 30-year history. To understand why Japarov emphasizes this issue, it is necessary to look more closely at the nature of this invisible divide.

The Tien Shan mountain range runs through the middle of Kyrgyzstan, separating the north and south. The northern regions—Chui, Issyk-Kul, Talas, and Naryn—have historically been more influenced by Russia and are more urbanized and industrialized. The southern regions—Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Batken—border the Fergana Valley and are more traditional, agricultural, and densely populated.

Since independence, power transitions in Kyrgyzstan have often depended on regional balance. If the president came from the north, he needed to reach an understanding with southern elites to avoid unrest. For example, southern elites played a major role in the 2005 Tulip Revolution that led to the departure of northern president Askar Akayev, while northern protesters fueled the unrest that removed Kurmanbek Bakiyev in 2010.

The Japarov–Tashiyev tandem was seen as a rare alliance between north and south. Japarov, from Issyk-Kul, secured northern support, while Tashiyev, from Jalal-Abad, was viewed as a southern strongman. His dismissal and departure from the country are now interpreted by some as a disruption of this balance. Japarov’s repeated statements about preventing division are seen as an attempt to calm these concerns.

By describing regional division as a “political game,” Japarov frames any potential unrest as unpatriotic. If he truly manages to bridge the divide, it would mark a historic turning point. However, the sidelining of a powerful figure like Tashiyev could still provoke reactions among southern elites.

Although Japarov presents his actions as part of building a fair system, many observers believe the purge is aimed at removing Tashiyev’s allies and weakening his influence.

A “purge” in the prosecutor’s office

For example, on February 14, Nurgazy Matisakov, head of Kyrgyzstan’s Transport Prosecutor’s Office and Tashiyev’s nephew, was dismissed. He had previously served in several prosecutorial roles, including in Uzgen, Jayil, and Issyk-Ata districts. Major personnel changes also took place within the Prosecutor General’s Office, according to the presidential press service.

Boimirza Maatov was dismissed from his post as First Deputy Prosecutor General, a position he had held since 2024. By presidential decree, he was replaced by Malik Bekturganov, formerly the prosecutor of Osh, who has extensive experience in the prosecutor’s office. Zalkarbek Akhnazarov was also appointed Deputy Prosecutor General.

Tashiyev’s dismissal as head of the State Committee for National Security and Deputy Prime Minister on February 10 by presidential decree may still lead to further discussions and possibly significant developments. These events will continue to be closely monitored, as developments in Kyrgyzstan may directly affect Uzbekistan. As the saying goes, “When your neighbor is peaceful, you are peaceful.”

Readers can follow the chronology of the evolving relationship between the two leaders in a separate analysis titled “Two Rams’ Heads Cannot Boil in One Pot.”