Putin’s 30-year secret – Midweek

A meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is expected soon. Following this, there is a possibility that Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin may also meet face to face.

It has been revealed that Central Asian countries have healthier diets compared to other regions of the world. However, the situation in neighboring Afghanistan remains dire.

Afghan entrepreneurs are increasingly choosing Uzbekistan as a destination for business. In the past six months alone, more than 200,000 Afghans have come to Uzbekistan for commercial purposes.

A new virus has emerged in China. Is there a potential threat to neighboring Uzbekistan?

Putin’s 31-year secret has come to light. Long before becoming president, he reportedly viewed not only eastern Ukraine and Crimea, but also northern Kazakhstan as Russian territory.

Find out more about the week’s key global developments in the QALAMPIR.UZ's Midweek program.

Is the end of the war in sight?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the broader US–Russia relationship may be nearing a pivotal moment. President Putin responded to Trump’s ultimatums in an unusual setting—a church. However, Telegram personality Dmitry Medvedev nearly escalated tensions further with an offensive response to Trump, which reportedly prompted the appearance of two US nuclear submarines near Russian waters. During a visit to Valaam Monastery, Putin appeared to send a message urging Trump to handle the matter quietly and resolve the conflict through closed-door diplomacy. As Trump was preparing to give Putin a 10-day ultimatum to end the war, both sides began to recognize the need for direct dialogue. Trump dispatched his special envoy, Stephen Witkoff—who is increasingly seen as more influential in foreign policy than Secretary of State Marco Rubio—to Moscow for the fifth time this year.

On August 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Witkoff at the Kremlin. Prior to the visit, Trump had stated that if Witkoff returned without meaningful results, sanctions would be imposed immediately. Following three hours of talks, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov—who holds considerable sway over Russian foreign policy alongside Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov—briefed the press. Ushakov said that during the meeting, Putin had sent multiple signals to the White House regarding a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict. He also claimed to have received similar signals from Trump, but declined to share specifics, indicating that further US action was awaited. Back in Washington, Trump was expected to announce sanctions based on Witkoff’s report. However, those plans were put on hold. Not long after Witkoff left Moscow, international media began reporting—citing White House sources—that a meeting between Trump and Putin could happen soon.

The "New York Times" first reported that such a meeting might take place as early as next week. "Fox News" later revealed that the proposal came from Putin himself, and after hearing the message via Witkoff, Trump expressed readiness to meet if it could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled satisfaction with Witkoff’s efforts for the first time. He told reporters he had spoken to Trump by phone after returning from Ukraine’s Sumy region. Zelensky stated that Russia appeared less inclined toward continuing the war. His remarks came after Witkoff had reportedly briefed him on the Kremlin discussions, suggesting the potential for a breakthrough in the nearly four-year conflict. The situation is developing rapidly, and the world may be on the cusp of significant news. Even the White House has acknowledged the possibility of a high-level meeting between Trump and Putin next week.

Now let's move on to the sanctions

Despite Donald Trump’s promise of an upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin, the U.S. president has imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on India for purchasing oil from Russia.

Previously, Trump had said sanctions would be unnecessary if Putin stopped his aggression. However, this new measure appears to stem from two reasons: first, Russia has continued its invasion; second, the tariff is scheduled to take effect in 21 days, giving time for potential diplomatic progress. Observers believe Trump signed the order to signal seriousness about sanctions and to increase pressure ahead of the potential talks. With the new tariff, the total duty on certain Indian imports to the U.S. will rise to 50 percent. India remains one of the largest buyers of Russian industrial raw materials.

As for the anticipated Trump–Putin–Zelensky summit, Reuters reports that the meeting location between Trump and Putin has not yet been finalized. Trump reportedly plans to meet Putin first, then Zelensky, without the involvement of European leaders.

Putin was “broken” long ago

During his 25-year rule, Russian President Vladimir Putin has violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of multiple nations. The invasions of Georgia and Ukraine are well known. While Putin initially gave reassurances that Russia would not invade Ukraine, the full-scale war launched in 2022 has become the largest conflict in Europe in decades. More recently, Russian propaganda has increasingly questioned Kazakhstan’s sovereignty over its northern regions—particularly areas bordering Russia. These claims, sometimes made in official channels and sometimes in Russian media, have fueled unease in Central Asia.

This week, a newly declassified German Foreign Ministry document revealed that Putin’s imperial ambitions date back more than three decades. The document shows that in 1994—while serving as Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg—Putin told the German Consul General that he considered Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and northern Kazakhstan to be historic Russian lands. According to the German Foreign Ministry’s publication "Documents of German Foreign Policy", the note from January 14, 1994, records Putin as saying: “Crimea, the eastern part of Ukraine, and northern Kazakhstan—at least these territories have never been alien to Russia. They have always been part of the Russian state, and no Russian can be convinced that these areas are now foreign.” The diplomat, Eberhard von Puttkamer (who served as Consul General from 1991 to 1995 and died six years ago), also noted that Putin added: “As long as the economic and social conditions for Russians in Ukraine and Kazakhstan remain satisfactory, there is no problem.” At the time, Putin had just been appointed Deputy Mayor and Head of the City Committee for External Relations in St. Petersburg. His mentor and then-mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, reportedly held similar views. Sobchak argued that after the Soviet Union’s collapse, its constituent republics should have reverted to their pre-Soviet borders and referred to later territorial arrangements as negotiable.

Sobchak opposed Crimea's transfer to Ukraine, calling it “nonsense,” and warned that Ukraine should not be allowed to create its own military, claiming it would inevitably use it. Putin later cited Sobchak’s views in his controversial 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” in which he claimed that “Crimea has always been ours,” and described modern Ukraine as a creation of Vladimir Lenin and Bolshevik Russia.

This long-standing ideology, shaped under Sobchak’s influence, appears to have deeply impacted Putin’s worldview. At one point, Putin even claimed that Kazakhstan had never existed before, and credited the country’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, with creating a state where there had never been one. In 2014, he publicly praised Nazarbayev for accomplishing what he called “a unique achievement.” This view is echoed by some in the Russian political establishment. For instance, State Duma deputy Vyacheslav Nikonov once said, “The territory of Kazakhstan is a wonderful gift from Russia and the Soviet Union.” In response, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev firmly stated that “no one from outside ever gave these lands to the Kazakh people.”

Central Asia is full, but Afghanistan…

The concept of development varies widely across the globe. For instance, while Central Asia has made significant strides in reducing malnutrition in recent years, the situation in Afghanistan remains dire. This contrast stems largely from differences in political systems, historical upheavals, and the influence of powerful global actors. However, the focus today is not on political causes, but rather on how Central Asia has tackled food insecurity over the past two decades. According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the rate of malnutrition in Central Asia has decreased more than fivefold in the last 20 years — from 13.1 percent in 2005 to 2.8 percent in 2024. The most significant improvements occurred before 2019, but progress was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the number of people suffering from hunger in 2020–2021 rose to 2.5 million.

Nevertheless, thanks to renewed food security policies and economic recovery, the region has resumed positive momentum, now recording progress that is three times better than the global average. Globally, the rate of malnutrition fell from 12 percent in 2005 to 8.2 percent in 2023, while in Central Asia it dropped to just 2.8 percent by 2024. The average daily cost of a healthy diet in Central Asia stood at $3.78 per person in 2024. Over the past six years, this figure has gradually increased — from $3.10 in 2019 to $3.81 in 2023. However, a slight decrease was recorded in 2024, marking the first drop in recent years. Despite these positive trends, healthy diets remain out of reach for 11.5 million people in the region. This is still a significant improvement from 2020, when that number stood at 14.5 million — a reduction of 3 million people in four years. Chronic malnutrition among children has also seen notable improvement. The prevalence of stunting among children under five in Central Asia decreased from 14.8 percent in 2012 to 7.4 percent in 2024 — a near twofold improvement. Similarly, the rate of wasting (acute malnutrition) declined from 3.8 percent to 2.1 percent during the same period.

In contrast, the situation in neighboring Afghanistan — which borders three Central Asian countries — continues to worsen. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has reported that child malnutrition in Afghanistan has reached record levels. According to WFP estimates, around a quarter of the country’s population, or 10 million people, are undernourished. One in three Afghan children suffers from chronic malnutrition. The deterioration is attributed largely to a sharp decline in humanitarian assistance over the past two years. A significant drop in international funding has constrained aid efforts. Additionally, in April of this year, the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump halted all food aid to Afghanistan — one of the world’s poorest nations.

Another factor worsening food insecurity is the mass return of Afghans from neighboring countries. Deportations of undocumented migrants have surged. In just the past two months, the WFP has assisted 60,000 Afghans returning from Iran. According to WFP spokesman Ziauddin Safi, $15 million is needed to support all returning Afghans from Iran alone. Overall, the organization requires $539 million to support the most vulnerable families in Afghanistan through January 2026. Compounding these challenges is the climate crisis. Matiullah Kholis, head of Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency, warned that drought, water shortages, shrinking arable land, and recurring floods are severely affecting the population and the economy.

Afghan traders are being lured to Uzbekistan

Let’s stay with the topic of Afghanistan. Much has been said about the Taliban's return to power and their harsh crackdown on drug production and distribution. This initiative is reportedly ongoing, and some statistics show a decline in narcotics production. However, Afghanistan's continued negative impact on its neighbors suggests that the Taliban has not yet established full control over the country. For instance, the Drug Control Agency of Tajikistan reported that in the first half of 2025, ten armed clashes occurred between Tajik security forces and Afghan drug traffickers along the Afghan border.

According to the agency, four Afghan nationals were killed in these incidents. Most of the clashes took place in the border areas of Afghanistan's Badakhshan province, adjacent to Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The traffickers reportedly used heavy weaponry and advanced communication tools. According to "Avesta", the number of such clashes in this period exceeds the figure for the same period in 2024, when six incidents were recorded. The agency also reported that 1,692 kilograms of narcotics were seized at the Afghan border in the first half of this year — accounting for over 54.4% of the country’s total drug seizures.

Meanwhile, while Tajikistan shares alarming figures about Afghanistan, the Uzbek State Committee on Statistics reported that Afghan nationals made up the largest group of foreign visitors who entered Uzbekistan for business purposes in the first half of 2025. Between January and June 2025, a total of 223,600 foreign citizens visited Uzbekistan for commercial reasons — an increase of 158,600 people or nearly 3.5 times compared to the same period last year. Afghan citizens accounted for nearly 93% of those arrivals.

To be precise, 207,536 came from Afghanistan, followed by 12,244 from Tajikistan, 1,642 from Turkmenistan, 451 from Russia, 276 from Turkey, 255 from Kazakhstan, and 1,177 from other countries.

Will China’s malaria threat affect Uzbekistan?

Since COVID-19, any new virus reported — especially in China — quickly becomes a global concern. Recently, nearly 4,000 new cases of chikungunya fever have been recorded in Guangdong province, China. Authorities stated that no serious or fatal cases have occurred so far. Chikungunya is caused by the chikungunya virus, transmitted to humans via mosquito bites. Symptoms typically appear 3 to 7 days after infection and include fever, joint pain and swelling, headaches, muscle pain, and rashes.

People most at risk of developing severe symptoms include newborns, seniors over 65, and those with heart disease, high blood pressure, or diabetes. According to the World Health Organization, the chikungunya virus is mainly transmitted in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. However, there is no approved vaccine or specific treatment yet. Chinese health experts have attributed the outbreak to the rainy season, which increases mosquito populations. In response, scientists in China have begun releasing large mosquito larvae that feed on the virus-carrying mosquitoes.

Although China and Uzbekistan do not share a land border, the shortest distance between them is only 340–350 km. Naturally, news of the chikungunya outbreak in China raised concerns in Uzbekistan as well. However, Uzbekistan’s Committee for Sanitary and Epidemiological Safety and Public Health has issued a statement reassuring the public. According to the agency, the disease does not pose a threat to Uzbekistan because the mosquito species Aedes albopictus — the primary vector for chikungunya — is not present in the country.