Breaking ties: Azerbaijan’s retaliation over Russian threats and air incident

The investigative commission established in Kazakhstan, which also involved representatives of Azerbaijan in preparing this report, confirmed the following remaining facts in the preliminary report: On December 25, 2024, a regular flight was made from Baku, the Republic of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, the Russian Federation. The Embraer 190 passenger aircraft belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines was in full flight condition when it took off and during the flight to Grozny. Neither of the aircraft’s engines had any technical malfunctions before the incident. The aircraft lost GPS signals while performing flight operations in the airspace of the Russian Federation, including over the Grozny airport. After the aircraft failed to make a second landing over Grozny, the captain decided to return to Baku. After this decision was made, two extraneous noises were recorded over Grozny with an interval of 24 seconds. Numerous penetrating and blind damage to the aircraft fuselage was found, photographed, and videotaped. Information was also provided about the formation of damage to the aircraft fuselage due to the impact of foreign objects. The preliminary report does not contain any substantiated information about bird strikes. Information, including the fact of an oxygen cylinder explosion, was also not recorded. According to the Chicago Convention, after the preliminary report is prepared, a final report on the causes of the accident must be prepared within 1 year from the date of the accident. Work on the preparation of the final report by the Republic of Kazakhstan and other countries participating in the investigation has already begun. However, information that was not included in the 53-page initial investigation report, which we briefly touched upon above, is also being circulated on the networks. In particular, Reuters, citing a source in the Azerbaijani government, reported that the Embraer 190 aircraft that crashed near the city of Aktau was shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile.

Azerbaijan's Retaliatory Strikes

One of the most common versions of the plane crash is related to Ukrainian drones and the Russian air defense system that worked against them. That is, according to this version, which has spread on social networks, when Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia, Russian air defense systems were active and hit the Azerbaijani plane, or the Ukrainian drone itself could be to blame. Russian propaganda, which is currently not taken seriously by any sane person, tried to shift the blame to Ukraine through this version. However, it seems that everything was in vain. We remembered this version for a reason. On January 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. According to Aliyev's press service, the meeting was held at the initiative of the Ukrainian side. The leaders discussed political, economic, and humanitarian relations between the two countries, cooperation in the energy sector, and regional security issues. In addition, on February 5, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree allocating $1 million for humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. These funds were allocated from the Presidential Reserve Fund and were used to purchase and ship electrical equipment manufactured in Azerbaijan to Ukraine. The decree also noted that in connection with the recent situation in Ukraine, the Azerbaijani government has repeatedly sent humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people. As the decree states, Aliyev provided Kyiv with several humanitarian aid during the invasion. According to information, since the beginning of the Russian invasion to this day, Azerbaijan has provided $40 million in aid to Ukraine. However, this $1 million aid, which was sent at this time, can be considered the first signal to Moscow. Indeed, such signals were followed by direct “blows”.

The Next Blow to Russia’s “Soft Power”

The Azerbaijani government announced the closure of the Kremlin’s “soft power” organization, known as “Rossotrudnichestvo” or “Russian House,” led by Yevgeny Primakov, who is under EU sanctions. The decision was made on February 6, just a day after Azerbaijan provided $1 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. According to local Azerbaijani media, the government justified its decision by stating that the country no longer tolerates external interference.

This is not the first “soft power” organization to be closed in Azerbaijan. Previously, the office of the American Agency for International Development (USAID) was also shut down. Both organizations are considered to be tools of influence for the countries they represent. An official notification was sent to Russia regarding the closure of “Rossotrudnichestvo.” The Azerbaijani government cited the organization’s failure to register as a legal entity as the reason for its closure. However, Yevgeny Primakov claimed that the organization had repeatedly requested registration for many years, but its appeals went unanswered.

Primakov stated, “The Russian Embassy in the Republic of Azerbaijan, our representative office, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have repeatedly appealed to the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan for assistance in registering over the years. We were always ready for this, but our appeals went unanswered.”

Azerbaijan Ends Operations of 'Rossotrudnichestvo'

“Rossotrudnichestvo” was established in 2008 by Dmitry Medvedev, the then-President of Russia, to maintain Russian influence primarily in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and to promote Russia's political and economic interests. It functions similarly to the US development agency USAID, but with a more Russia-focused agenda. Officially known as the Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Russians Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation, it operates in 71 countries, mainly in Central Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

The agency's activities include organizing events, festivals, exhibitions, concerts, and conferences. It also provides grants and creates information centers to promote Russian culture. However, after Russia invaded Ukraine, “Rossotrudnichestvo” was scrutinized for allegedly supporting pro-Russian rallies and demonstrations across Europe. In July 2022, the European Union imposed sanctions on the agency for supporting actions undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity. Canada followed suit with similar sanctions.

“Rossotrudnichestvo” also operates in Uzbekistan, under the Russian Center for Science and Culture, established in 2001. Its activities are guided by several agreements between Uzbekistan and Russia, including the Agreement on the Foundations of Interstate Relations, Friendship, and Cooperation (1992) and the Agreement on the Establishment and Operation of Information and Cultural Centers (1998).

Interestingly, the organization's official website mentions compliance with Russian legislation and international treaties but vaguely refers to adhering to Uzbek laws without specifying which local regulations it follows. The head of the Tashkent office coordinates activities with the Russian Ambassador to Uzbekistan and reports on its operations regularly.

After being sanctioned by the EU in July 2022, the representative office in Tashkent relocated to a new building at 63 Yunus Rajabiy Street, near the Kosmonavtlar metro station. Since August 2023, Irina Aleksandrovna Staroselskaya has been leading the office as a counselor of the Russian Embassy in Uzbekistan.

Former boxer Valuev was barred from entering Azerbaijan

After Azerbaijan ordered the closure of Russia’s state-funded cultural diplomatic branch, Rossotrudnichestvo, in the country, Nikolai Valuev reacted by suggesting that Moscow could target ethnic Azars in Russia and their financial activities. Yes, this is the same Nikolai Valuev, the former Russian superheavyweight boxer known for his 2007 defeat to Uzbek boxer Ruslan Chagaev for the WBC superheavyweight title, a match where he was severely beaten. Currently, Valuev serves as the first deputy chairman of the Russian Tourism Committee. Now, the same Valuev who once struggled against Chagaev’s powerful punches has been banned from entering Azerbaijan due to his controversial remarks about Azars.

The ban was confirmed by Aykhan Hajizade, the spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who stated that Valuev's comments were offensive and threatening to the state and people of Azerbaijan.

“In connection with the statements made by the said deputy against Azerbaijan, his name was included in the list of persons prohibited from entering the Republic of Azerbaijan and was banned from entering our country. In general, we would like to note that this is not the first case when State Duma deputies were included in the list of ‘undesirable persons’. For example, the corresponding list in Azerbaijan previously included Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the CIS Affairs Committee of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, and Vitaly Milonov, Deputy Chairman of the Family Protection Committee, who acted against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We would like to note with regret that all these deputies who are working against our country are members of the ruling United Russia party. Appropriate measures will continue to be taken within the framework of our country's legislation against such individuals who act against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country and the people of Azerbaijan,” Hajizadeh stated.

Valuev’s statements and the resulting ban have sparked controversy but did not come as a surprise to many. Observers note that the current State Duma has become a platform for hostile rhetoric against Russia's neighbors and strategic partners. Some deputies openly criticize countries for not enforcing Russian laws, including those who did not prosecute citizens who joined the Russian army during its invasion of Ukraine. Others have made inflammatory remarks about migrants, referring to them in derogatory terms.

The aggressive stance taken by some Russian deputies extends beyond rhetoric, with frequent mentions of Ukraine’s future and veiled threats against neighboring countries. To many, these deputies seem less like lawmakers and more like enforcers of the Kremlin’s geopolitical agenda.