Karimov's warning revisited: The risky revival of Rogun HPP

Tajikistan is Uzbekistan’s neighbor—a mountainous country located in Central Asia. Like Uzbekistan, this former Soviet republic has no access to the sea. Ninety-three percent of its territory is mountainous, and although the country possesses mineral resources, their extraction and transport demand great expense and effort. Despite Tajikistan producing about 60 percent of all water resources in Central Asia, electricity shortages increase during the winter months. Remote areas are often plunged into darkness. To address these energy challenges, the Tajik government has launched the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power plant (HPP). While the project is of immense economic importance for Tajikistan, this massive structure poses a threat to other countries in the region, including Uzbekistan. Drying lakes, disease outbreaks, and large-scale flooding near the Uzbekistan-Tajikistan border are potential risks attributed to the Rogun project.

About the Rogun Hydropower Plant

The Rogun Hydropower Plant is a colossal hydroelectric facility under construction on the Vakhsh River in southern Tajikistan, 110 kilometers from Dushanbe.

When completed, the dam of the Rogun plant, standing 335 meters tall, is expected to be the tallest in the world. The plant will have a capacity of 3,600 megawatts, making it the largest hydroelectric facility in Central Asia. The project is considered the longest-running construction effort in the world. Construction began in 1976 but was halted after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The year 1993 was especially devastating for the project. A powerful flood destroyed the dam bridge, flooding all the previously built infrastructure. Today, the project has been revived.

While the project carries substantial economic significance for Tajikistan, its massive scale could endanger neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan.

What Are Residents Afraid Of?

According to the publication Nezavisimaya, the World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the safety of the Rogun HPP project being constructed in Tajikistan. The complainants expressed deep concern for their environment and future.

Their complaint targets the World Bank’s “Sustainable Financing of the Rogun HPP” initiative and the associated technical assistance project, which aims to update the environmental and social documentation first drafted in 2014. The project has received an investment of $350 million.

The complainants argue that it is unacceptable for the World Bank and other co-financing institutions—who plan to allocate over $1 billion in additional funding—to have approved the Rogun HPP project despite serious environmental shortcomings.

The main issue is that the environmental and social impact assessments are outdated, incomplete, and fail to reflect the current risks associated with the project.

According to the complainants, the project documents do not adequately consider the interests of people living downstream, particularly in the environmentally fragile Aral Sea basin. The reduction and seasonal redistribution of Vakhsh River water during construction, reservoir filling (expected to last at least 15 years), and future operation will lead to serious water shortages downstream—especially in the lower reaches of the Vakhsh and Amu Darya rivers. These grave consequences have not been properly addressed.

Another Threat Looming Over the Dying Aral Sea

These concerns are not without foundation. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that during the reservoir filling process alone, the Amu Darya’s inflow to the Aral Sea will drop by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually. This accounts for at least 25 percent of the current flow. Losing such a large water volume would further worsen the fragile condition of natural and human-made ecosystems, accelerating land degradation, soil salinization, and desertification.

People living in the lower Amu Darya basin are already suffering the long-term effects of the Aral Sea disaster, a legacy of Soviet-era hydropower policies. They continue to face poor health due to dust storms and polluted water, and struggle with lost livelihoods caused by water shortages and degraded land.

Completing the Rogun project could significantly intensify these problems. Altering the river’s flow will require massive and costly changes to agriculture and water supply systems.

The failure to address the cumulative impact of the Rogun project is particularly troubling. There is little recognition of how the dam will interact with other large-scale projects, such as the Kushtepa Canal currently under construction in Afghanistan. Experts have not provided a reliable forecast of how much damage these two megaprojects could inflict on the Amu Darya’s ecosystems and downstream populations. This double blow introduces immense uncertainty and risk for the entire river basin—especially in the context of worsening climate change and shrinking water resources.

According to the World Bank’s forecasts for Uzbekistan, by 2050, water availability in the Amu Darya basin could fall by 15–30 percent. This would lead to the loss of up to 250,000 jobs in agriculture alone and require billions of dollars in adaptation investments.

Impact of the HPP on Nature

The completion of the Rogun HPP project also endangers the region’s biodiversity. Valuable forest ecosystems, such as the riparian forests in the Tigrovaya Balka reserve—part of the UNESCO World Heritage List—and the Amu Darya reserve at the Uzbekistan–Turkmenistan border, could suffer irreparable damage. Two critically endangered species of Amu Darya sturgeon may go extinct due to altered water flow and pollution.

It is worth noting that a decade ago, Tashkent and Ashgabat strongly objected to the completion of the Rogun project. Today, however, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan do not publicly oppose it. This silence does not mean the risks have disappeared. Rather, it may reflect shifts in geopolitical dynamics or a lack of transparent regional dialogue over water resources. Still, the absence of criticism does not absolve Tajikistan or its financial backers of their responsibility to ensure Rogun’s environmental and social safety for the entire region.

Workers Sacrificing for Rogun

There’s a saying: “There is no war without victims.” The “war” to complete Tajikistan’s monumental project continues. Its victims are the workers building it. Since construction began, around 100 workers have reportedly died due to explosions and technical mishaps. The actual number could be higher, given that 20,000 people are working on the site.

According to verified records, in 2020 alone, 15 workplace incidents occurred at the Rogun HPP, resulting in 3 deaths and 15 injuries. In 2019, 33 accidents were documented, leaving 20 dead and 25 injured. In 2024, three people died and one was injured in a hydroelectric station emergency. Most accidents happened during underground operations. Of the six units planned, only two have been launched so far. The third unit is expected to come online this year. Therefore, more casualties may occur before the project is fully completed.

Will the Money Spent on the Project Pay Off?

The economic feasibility of the project, especially in its current form with a 335-meter dam, is under scrutiny. While over $5 billion has already been invested, the cost of completing the Rogun plant continues to rise and has surpassed $6 billion. This means the electricity generated must be sold at high prices to recover construction costs.

Meanwhile, neighboring countries are rapidly developing their energy sectors, casting doubt on whether Afghanistan or Pakistan will be willing to pay premium prices for Tajik electricity. The Tajik government continues to raise domestic electricity tariffs annually and has even criminalized non-payment—residents can now be imprisoned for not paying their bills. These factors suggest that the high investment might not justify the returns. The people’s complaints deserve serious attention—not just from the public but from government officials and international leaders.

Karimov’s Opposition to the Project

Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first president since 1991, was a vocal opponent of the Rogun HPP. He warned that building the world’s tallest dam in a seismically active area could be catastrophic.

During his 2012 visit to Kazakhstan, Karimov addressed the construction of the Rogun and Kambarata hydropower plants at a press conference with then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

According to Kazakh media, Karimov stressed the necessity of an international review for both projects.

“Before we build anything, before we sign agreements with major powers, we must conduct a fair examination and clearly explain to our people what the consequences will be—especially for those living downstream,” Karimov said.

He reminded that both Rogun and Kambarata were designed in the 1970s–80s during the Soviet era, when projects were often driven by gigantomania. More than 40 years have passed, and modern hydraulic infrastructure must meet very different standards.

Karimov continued: “They dream of entering the Guinness Book of Records, but they don’t realize these dams are being built in seismically dangerous areas, and the lives of hundreds are at stake. Just imagine the disaster that could unfold if the Toktogul reservoir burst during an earthquake.”

At the time, tensions between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the Rogun project were high. Uzbek officials repeatedly emphasized that their neighbors’ construction plans lacked adequate planning. The Tajik side, in turn, dismissed Uzbek experts’ warnings as baseless. Over the years, Uzbekistan has scaled back its involvement in the matter—possibly due to leadership changes.

In summary, the Rogun Hydropower Plant may be a vital step for Tajikistan’s energy independence. However, ignoring or downplaying the risks to the environment, neighboring countries, and the region’s shared water resources could lead to irreversible consequences.