In Uzbekistan, inflation may climb to 11 percent. What's driving this increase?

The Central Bank reported that inflation in Uzbekistan might reach 9-11 percent in 2024.

According to the report, overall inflation has declined since the year's start, hitting 8 percent annually in March. Core inflation has also slowed to 7.6 percent annually. However, the deregulation of some controlled tariffs starting May 1 (including increased gas and fuel prices) is expected to boost overall inflation.

"The inflation expectations among residents and business owners persistently surpass the current and projected inflation levels. Furthermore, the adjustment of regulated prices and the introduction of VAT on certain goods and services from April may fuel the inflationary expectations," stated the report.

Originally, the Central Bank aimed to achieve a 5 percent target by 2023. Yet, due to certain factors, the deadline was pushed back to 2025. Forecasts suggest that core inflation in 2024 will remain no lower than 7-8 percent.

In essence, inflation denotes the decline in the value of money concerning goods, marked by an increased money supply relative to goods.

Additionally, the Central Bank presented various economic analyses, including:

- A 6.2 percent economic growth observed in Q1 2024.
- A 0.9 percent depreciation of the soum since the year's start.
- GDP growth is anticipated to fall within the 5.2-5.7 percent range by year-end.