Midweek: Political arrests, war warnings, and Uzbekistan’s rising concerns

On March 18, a highly anticipated phone conversation took place between world leaders. Despite Putin’s agreement not to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, reports emerged that Shahed drones were once again spotted in Ukrainian airspace. Meanwhile, major European powers, including France and Germany, are ramping up preparations for war.

In Turkey, Istanbul Governor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a fierce critic and main political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was detained in a special operation.

In Uzbekistan, concerns over the rising number of early marriages among girls have resurfaced, with cases increasing sevenfold in the past year.

QALAMPIR.UZ’s Midweek program provides a detailed look at significant global and domestic events leading up to the middle of this week.

Erdogan Moves to Silence İmamoğlu

Ekrem İmamoğlu, a member of Turkey’s opposition Republican People’s Party, recently declared in a speech in Ankara that Erdogan’s era was coming to an end. He criticized Erdogan’s policies, arguing that they had harmed the country and transformed the government into a palace-centered system rather than a parliamentary democracy. İmamoğlu made these remarks just ahead of the Republican People’s Party’s primary elections, scheduled for March 23, to determine their presidential candidate. However, his chances of participating in the election have now been effectively eliminated following his arrest on March 19 in a special operation targeting corruption. Along with İmamoğlu, about 100 others have been detained.

The move to remove İmamoğlu from the political scene had begun even earlier. On March 18, Istanbul University revoked his diploma, citing an error in its issuance. This decision effectively disqualifies him from running for president, as Turkish law requires a higher education degree for candidates. The diplomas of 27 other individuals were also annulled due to alleged irregularities in their academic transfers. İmamoğlu’s transfer from the University of Northern Cyprus to Istanbul University in 1990 has been called into question, with Turkey’s Council of Higher Education declaring his diploma a forgery. The matter has now been referred to the Istanbul prosecutor’s office for further investigation.

Today, an arrest warrant was issued for İmamoğlu. Turkish media reported that he, his press secretary Murat İngun, and about 100 others were arrested as part of an anti-corruption operation. Authorities also searched İmamoğlu’s residence. He is suspected of engaging in irregularities related to state procurement through Medya A.Ş and an alleged agreement between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the Republican People’s Party. A significant police presence was deployed around İmamoğlu’s home in Sariyer as searches were conducted. According to reports, İmamoğlu and his press advisor were taken to court following their arrest.

In the wake of these events, access to several social media platforms in Turkey has reportedly been restricted. NetBlocks, an international internet monitoring service, confirmed that social media access was disrupted following reports of İmamoğlu’s detention.

Power Struggles Over a Sovereign State

Ahead of a phone conversation that the world had been anticipating, Donald Trump took to his social network, Truth Social, on March 17 to announce that key issues had already been agreed upon before speaking with Putin. This statement triggered widespread speculation in the media about the agenda of the upcoming discussion.

CNN and the Associated Press reported that the talks would center on territorial disputes and power plants. Reuters suggested that the control of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant might also be on the table. More notably, the U.S. publication Semafor, citing sources close to the discussions, claimed that Trump’s administration was considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory as part of a future agreement to end the war in Ukraine. The report further stated that Washington might even push the United Nations to acknowledge Crimea’s status under Russian control. Additionally, U.S. Special Representative Steve Witkoff revealed that Washington and Moscow were discussing access to Black Sea ports.

The conversation between Putin and Trump began on March 18 at approximately 17:00 Moscow time and lasted two and a half hours. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino described the talks as progressing well.

This marked the second direct conversation between the Russian and U.S. presidents since Trump’s return to the White House. Their previous discussion on February 12 lasted an hour and a half. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had indicated that the main topics would be bilateral relations and efforts to resolve the situation in Ukraine. However, Putin did not plan to state the talks. Shortly after the conversation ended, the Kremlin released details of what had been discussed.

According to the Kremlin, the leaders exchanged frank and in-depth views on the conflict in Ukraine. Putin expressed gratitude to Trump for his efforts to halt hostilities and reduce casualties. The discussion covered several critical points, including ensuring a 30-day ceasefire along the front lines and halting forced mobilization and military rearmament in Ukraine. The Kremlin statement emphasized that a key condition for de-escalation was the complete cessation of military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.

Other matters addressed included the fate of Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk, the cessation of attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, the safety of maritime routes in the Black Sea, and a prisoner exchange. In response to Trump’s request for clemency towards Ukrainian soldiers trapped in the Kursk region, Putin agreed to take them into captivity under humanitarian conditions, ensuring that prisoners of war would be treated according to international law.

During the conversation, Trump proposed a 30-day moratorium on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Putin agreed to the initiative and immediately instructed Russian forces to comply. Putin also took a constructive stance on Trump’s proposal to enhance security measures for ships navigating the Black Sea. Negotiations on this matter were held, and both sides agreed to further develop the details.

Another significant topic was the exchange of prisoners of war. On March 19, Putin announced plans for a 175-for-175 prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, 23 severely wounded Ukrainian soldiers being treated in Russian hospitals would be repatriated as a humanitarian gesture.

However, the most fragile agreement reached during the conversation—the commitment not to target energy and infrastructure—was almost immediately broken. Just hours after the phone call, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that around 40 drones were detected in Ukrainian airspace, with one striking a hospital in Sumy. According to Zelensky, the attack deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure. He urged Trump to recognize that Putin had already violated the agreement and warned of potential further escalations.

Europe Preparing for War

Two European leaders, Germany and France, are beginning to prepare for war on some fronts. Bavarian Health Minister Judith Gerlach stated that the German health system must be ready to provide medical care to both military and civilian personnel in a war scenario. According to Gerlach, Europe faces an increasing military threat from Russia. At the same time, the possibility of the US withdrawing from security agreements has heightened the need for such preparations. He stressed that not only the defense sector but also the civilian sector must be prepared for any crises, including military conflicts. He pointed out that Germany has neglected protection against global shocks for many years, a gap that must now be urgently addressed. Gerlach believes that alongside modernizing the army, it is crucial to strengthen civil defense and ensure continuous assistance to the population in wartime. He also highlighted the importance of preparing the medical system for emergencies, emphasizing that the ability to provide medical and nursing care to 80 million people during wartime would be a major challenge. The Bavarian government has already required hospitals to report on their emergency warning systems and crisis plans.

Meanwhile, France has reportedly begun preparations by drafting a war survival guide. The French government is preparing a 20-page guide detailing what citizens should do in case of war or other emergencies. Alongside this, the government will allocate a survival allowance for wartime or crises. The manual will reportedly outline potential military operations on French territory, as well as steps to take in natural disasters and epidemics. Officials aim to distribute it to the entire population by summer. The guide will be divided into three sections: the first focusing on crisis preparedness, including stocking water, canned food, and first aid supplies; the second outlining immediate actions during a crisis, such as seeking shelter in the event of a nuclear disaster; and the third explaining how citizens can volunteer for military, medical, or public service roles to aid in post-crisis recovery.

These preparations did not arise spontaneously. They began after Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 of this year. The shift in U.S. security policies, closer ties between Washington and Moscow, and uncertainty surrounding NATO have raised alarm among European leaders. The two emergency summits held in Paris and London shortly after Trump’s unexpected moves signaled a new level of vigilance among European officials. With the continent now committed to spending more than 800 billion on defense and taking independent steps to support Ukraine, European leaders—especially French President Emmanuel Macron—are preparing for serious decisions to protect Ukraine, European security, and their citizens.

Early Marriage Crisis

Early marriage in Uzbekistan increased by seven times in 2024 compared to 2023, according to Senator Gulnara Ma'rufova. Speaking at the fifth plenary session of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis on March 18, she reported that early marriages had reached approximately 300 cases this year—a sharp rise compared to the previous year. She noted that in most instances, girls were forced into marriage by their parents or relatives.

“What are the latest developments in this regard, what effective measures are being taken, and what proposals are there?” asked Marufova, addressing the Women’s Committee.

In response, Mukarram Nurmatova, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Family and Women, provided statistics: in 70% of cases, parents were the main reason, in 26% love was cited, in 3.4% the cause was pregnancy, and in 1.5% religious beliefs played a role.

"Indeed, this year, early marriages have increased sharply compared to last year. When community activists and social workers conducted door-to-door visits and investigated the issue responsibly, more cases were identified. Our coordination with relevant organizations revealed that in 70% of cases, parental pressure was the key factor," said Nurmatova.

To address this issue, amendments to Articles 15 and 16 of the Family Code are being considered. Under current legislation, district and city mayors can permit early marriages in exceptional cases. However, under the new proposal, the marriage age can only be lowered by one year in cases of pregnancy, childbirth, or legal recognition of a minor as fully capable. Additionally, fines outlined in Article 473 of the Code of Administrative Offenses will be increased.

The new penalties include:

• Engaging in marital relations with a minor: increased from 10 to 15 times the minimum wage (3.4 million to 5.1 million soums).
• Parents or guardians forcing a minor into marriage: increased from 15 to 20 times the minimum wage (5.1 million to 6.8 million soums).
• Performing a religious marriage ceremony for minors without legal registration: increased from 20 to 30 times the minimum wage (6.8 million to 10.2 million soums).

The alarming sevenfold rise in early marriages poses long-term risks, including potential negative impacts on the national gene pool. Global research highlights the importance of an optimal marriage age. For instance, Nicholas Wolfinger, a professor at the University of Utah specializing in family sociology, found that people who marry between 28 and 32 have a lower risk of divorce. Biologically, experts suggest that the best age for marriage is at least 25 for both men and women.