Tashiyev is out. Is history repeating itself in Kyrgyzstan?

Various opinions have emerged after Sadyr Japarov dismissed his longtime ally of 26 years, Kamchybek Tashiyev, along with officials close to him, reportedly due to a perceived potential threat as Tashiyev was seen as a possible presidential contender. Some observers claim the two friends have become rivals, while others believe the move was part of a hidden agreement between them. However, Tashiyev, who was in a hospital in Germany at the time of his dismissal, said he had been unaware of the decision and was upset that he had not been given the opportunity to say goodbye. This statement triggered further speculation.

Analysts suggest that Japarov, who came to power following unrest in the country, may now fear a similar scenario unfolding in his own political career and has therefore begun a “purge.” When did the partnership between Sadyr Japarov and Tashiyev—widely considered one of the most successful tandems in Kyrgyzstan’s modern history until recently—begin? Could another change of power occur in Kyrgyzstan, where leadership has often shifted due to protests and internal conflicts? How were previous presidents forced to step down? We review the events from the beginning.

Sadyr Japarov’s rise to power

The political events that took place in Kyrgyzstan in October 2020 became one of the sharpest turning points in the country’s history. Protests that began over parliamentary elections quickly escalated into mass unrest, the seizure of the presidential administration building, and a change of power. Most notably, Sadyr Japarov, who was in prison at the time, became the country’s leader within weeks.

Parliamentary elections were held on October 4, 2020. According to official results, only four of 16 parties passed the 7 percent threshold. The winning parties were widely viewed as being close to then-President Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

Political groups dissatisfied with the results and their supporters began gathering in Bishkek’s Ala-Too Square on October 5. The protests rapidly expanded. During the night of October 6, protesters seized the “White House,” which houses the presidential administration and parliament. Dozens of people were killed in the clashes and hundreds were injured to varying degrees.

Fearing further unrest, the Central Election Commission annulled the election results under pressure, creating a political vacuum in the country. The international community closely monitored the situation.

During the protests, demonstrators also stormed prisons and freed several political prisoners, including Sadyr Japarov, who had been incarcerated for seven years.

Japarov had been sentenced in 2013 to 11 years in prison in connection with the kidnapping of a regional governor in Issyk-Kul. After his release, his supporters quickly mobilized in the political arena.

Within days, Japarov was appointed prime minister. Soon afterward, President Jeenbekov resigned. According to the constitution, presidential powers should have passed to the parliamentary speaker, but the speaker declined the post. As a result, power passed to Prime Minister Japarov.

Although Russia maintains a military base in Kant, it did not interfere in Kyrgyzstan’s internal political process during the events. The Kremlin described the developments as Kyrgyzstan’s internal affair and called on political forces to reach a constitutional compromise. Moscow initially adopted a cautious position, neither openly supporting nor opposing Japarov.

After consolidating power, Japarov held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, discussing political stability, economic cooperation, and security. The call was seen as an important signal that Moscow accepted him as the de facto leader. Shortly afterward, in December 2020, Japarov visited Russia, marking one of his first major international meetings as acting president. In January 2021, he won the early presidential election by a large margin.

At the same time, a referendum transformed Kyrgyzstan from a parliamentary republic into a presidential republic. Presidential powers were significantly expanded, the number of members of parliament was reduced, and the government structure became more centralized.

Supporters described the changes as necessary for stability, while critics viewed them as excessive centralization of power. Japarov’s journey from prison to the presidency became one of the most unusual stories in Central Asian political history. Tashiyev was widely believed to have played a key role in his release and rise to power. After the 2021 constitutional changes, political decision-making became increasingly concentrated around the president, while the security bloc became a key pillar of the new system.

In recent years, one of the most influential political tandems in Kyrgyzstan has been President Sadyr Japarov and former head of the State Committee for National Security (SCNS) Kamchybek Tashiyev. After the 2020 crisis, the two figures shaped the country’s new power architecture. They have been long-time political allies, working together since the 2000s within nationalist political movements and continuing to cooperate after the 2010 revolution.

Following the 2013 Issyk-Kul events, both politicians faced criminal charges. Japarov was imprisoned, while Tashiyev came under political pressure. The October 2020 events facilitated their political comeback. After the unrest, Japarov became prime minister and then acting president, while Tashiyev was appointed head of the SCNS.

This led to a governance model based on two pillars: Japarov as the center of political and strategic decision-making, and Tashiyev controlling the security and law enforcement apparatus. Many observers felt the country was effectively governed by both men.

Tashiyev’s political influence and authority grew significantly, and many began to see him as a future presidential candidate. As the next presidential election approached, some political forces openly expressed sympathy for Tashiyev over the incumbent president. Calls were reportedly made to members of parliament, public figures, and intellectuals in Tashiyev’s name, encouraging various political actions.

Seventy-five individuals, including officials, former deputies, and socio-political activists, reportedly initiated proposals to hold an early presidential election. Having noticed this in time, Japarov reshuffled key political figures. The initiators were placed under investigation.

Japarov dismissed Tashiyev, who was seen as his main rival. However, given Kyrgyzstan’s history—where Japarov himself became president after years in prison—Tashiyev’s dismissal may not end his political ambitions. The fate of previous leaders offers several examples.

Askar Akayev

Kyrgyzstan’s first president, Askar Akayev, ruled the country for 15 years. He was first elected president by the Supreme Council in 1990 and later re-elected in direct nationwide elections in 1991, 1995, and 2000. In early 2005, parliamentary election results gave the opposition less than 10 percent of seats, sparking mass protests. Demonstrators demanded both the annulment of the election results and Akayev’s resignation. On March 24, protesters clashed with law enforcement and stormed the government building, forcing Akayev to leave the country. While in Moscow, he officially resigned in April 2005. His immunity and privileges were later revoked. Since 2005, Akayev has lived in Moscow and pursued academic work, becoming a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev (2005–2010)

Opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev came to power after the 2005 Tulip Revolution. He was elected president in July 2005 and re-elected in 2009. On April 7, 2010, a coup brought a provisional government led by Roza Otunbayeva to power. Bakiyev fled to Kazakhstan and later to Belarus, where he still resides. He was stripped of his status, placed on a wanted list, and sentenced in absentia to multiple prison terms on charges including abuse of power and organizing violence against protesters.

Roza Otunbayeva (2010–2011)

Roza Otunbayeva served as Kyrgyzstan’s president from 2010 to 2011, becoming the first female head of state in Central Asia. She had previously served as foreign minister and ambassador to several countries. As interim leader, she oversaw the political transition, adoption of a new constitution, and the shift to a parliamentary system. After leaving office, she continued working in international diplomacy, including roles in UN missions.

Almazbek Atambayev (2011–2017)

Almazbek Atambayev was elected president in 2011 and served a single term, stepping down voluntarily in 2017. He supported Prime Minister Sooronbay Jeenbekov as his successor. Relations later deteriorated, with Atambayev accusing the new administration of corruption and clan politics. In 2019, he was stripped of immunity, arrested after a special operation, and later sentenced to prison on multiple charges. During the 2020 protests, he was briefly freed by supporters before being re-arrested.

Sooronbay Jeenbekov (2017–2020)

Sooronbay Jeenbekov governed Kyrgyzstan for three years. He was elected in 2017 with Atambayev’s support. Protests erupted in October 2020 over disputed parliamentary election results, leading to clashes, the occupation of government buildings, and the release of several political figures from prison. The Central Election Commission annulled the results, and Jeenbekov resigned on October 15, stating he did not want to be remembered as a president who shed blood.

What is the current situation?

Returning to the present, Tashiyev had positioned himself not only as a security chief but also as the “internal face” of the presidential administration. He led the powerful SCNS, frequently appeared in the media, and defended key domestic policies.

His dismissal was officially described as a measure to prevent social division and strengthen national unity. The restructuring also includes major changes within the security apparatus: the Border Service has been separated into an independent agency, and the State Guard Service has been placed directly under presidential control.

For now, the future of the situation in Kyrgyzstan remains uncertain. Historically, internal tensions in the country have often ended in political upheaval. Aware of this, Japarov has appealed to the Constitutional Court, which is expected to review the submission in writing on February 17.