A new space race, Armenia’s turn to the West and strikes on Kyiv — Weekend

Military activity in Eastern Europe has intensified in recent days. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure were unlikely to go unanswered, and the expected retaliatory strikes have now been carried out.

Following the successful Artemis II space mission, China has launched a year-long space mission of its own. It appears that a familiar scenario from the Soviet era may be repeating itself, with space rivalry between the United States and China entering a new stage.

Yerevan continues to lean toward the West. During US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Armenia, the United States and Armenia signed a charter on comprehensive strategic partnership. Vladimir Putin is unlikely to simply watch this process unfold in silence, as Ukraine itself has already shown.

Another important event also took place in Kazakhstan. Several countries led by Russia gathered in Astana for the latest meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. Uzbekistan took part in the meeting as an observer state.

Oreshnik strikes

On May 24, 2026, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had carried out retaliatory strikes on military command facilities, air bases and defense industry enterprises in Ukraine. According to the statement, the attack involved Oreshnik, Iskander, Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, as well as air-, sea- and ground-launched cruise missiles and attack drones. Ukraine said the main strikes targeted the capital, Kyiv, and surrounding areas.

The reported use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile caused a particular international reaction. Why?

Oreshnik, which means “hazel tree” in Russian, is a medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile. Russia first used the weapon against the city of Dnipro in November 2024, which triggered widespread criticism. The concern was that this “hazel tree” is designed to carry nuclear warheads. The missile can reportedly fly at a speed of 13,000 kilometers per hour and poses serious challenges to air defense systems.

In addition, this weapon uses MIRV technology, meaning that several separate warheads can detach from a single missile and be directed toward different targets. It is believed that this technology was used in combat conditions for the first time during the November 2024 strike on Dnipro. So far, Moscow has used this weapon three times.

The first strike took place on November 21, 2024. The target was industrial facilities in Dnipro. At the time, Putin said the strike was a response to Ukraine’s use of Western missiles to attack Russian territory.

The second strike took place on January 9, 2026. This time, it occurred 60 kilometers from the NATO border. Through this strike, Russia demonstrated that the missile could accurately hit not only nearby targets, but also long-range targets in western Ukraine and near NATO borders. Russia’s Defense Ministry cited a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence in Valdai as the reason for the strike. Ukraine and the United States categorically denied the claim.

The third and, so far, deadliest strike was carried out against Kyiv itself on May 24, 2026. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, also said in a statement that Ukraine’s strike on a dormitory at Starobelsk College had prompted “Russia’s harsh response.”

Russia claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked Starobelsk Professional College in the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic on the night of May 22. As a result, 21 people were killed and more than 40 others were injured.

The sides continue to argue like children over who started the conflict, while people continue to die. As a result of the attack, two people were killed in the capital and two more died in the Kyiv region. Nearly 100 people were injured in total.

In addition, cultural sites such as the National Art Museum, the Philharmonic Hall and a newly opened museum dedicated to the memory of Chernobyl were also damaged. Dozens of apartment buildings and schools were also hit.

“This was a very difficult night for Ukraine. Many Russian missiles and Shahed drones targeted civilians. This is the largest series of damage caused to Kyiv’s cultural institutions since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. While Russian artists were accepting awards at the Cannes Film Festival, their brothers and sisters were shelling Ukrainian children. The awards given to Russian artists and their attempt to justify themselves by placing all blame solely on Russia’s dictator-president looked especially ironic,” said Tetyana Berezhna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for humanitarian policy and minister of culture.

After Russia’s strike on Kyiv, sharp reactions came from the West, although, as usual, they were mostly verbal.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the attack as “reckless escalation” and reaffirmed support for Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron also condemned Russia’s latest attacks. He said the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile showed Russia’s difficult position in the war and indicated that the conflict was entering a dangerous phase.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, strongly condemned Russia’s actions, calling them political intimidation and reckless nuclear brinkmanship.

“Russia is at a dead end on the battlefield, so it is terrorizing Ukraine by deliberately striking city centers. Moscow’s use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile is nothing more than a tactic of political intimidation and reckless nuclear brinkmanship,” she said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the strike as a “serious threat to the security of the European continent” because of its proximity to NATO borders and called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, used the situation to appeal for further Western support. He called on US President Donald Trump and Congress to speed up the delivery of Patriot air defense systems and anti-missile ammunition to Ukraine.

In short, Kyiv likely knew that a harsh retaliatory strike would follow when it attacked Russia’s energy infrastructure. Its possible aim may have been to accelerate free assistance from Europe and the United States. But whether Ukraine expected the attack to be on this scale remains an open question.

Is the space race returning?

During the Cold War, the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union became so intense that, among many other fields, space exploration also turned into part of the competition between the two powers. The Soviet Union was the first to reach space, while the Americans were the first to land on the Moon.

Today, the players have changed, but the race appears to be continuing. The United States’ main rival is no longer Russia, but China, including in space exploration. On the night of May 24, 2026, a Long March-2F rocket was launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert. At 11:08 p.m., the crewed Shenzhou-23 spacecraft entered orbit. The crew includes commander Zhu Yanzhu, pilot Zhang Yuanzhi and payload specialist Li Jiain.

The most important development, however, is that one of the three astronauts will remain in space for one year. This will be China’s first such long-duration mission. Until now, Chinese astronauts have typically stayed in space for about six months.

During the Shenzhou-23 mission, China plans to test automatic docking technologies needed for its future lunar program. Scientists will study the effects of long-term spaceflight on the human body, including radiation exposure, bone mass loss and psychological stress.

The Shenzhou-23 mission is not only a scientific project, but also a product of political competition. In April, NASA successfully completed the Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight around the Moon in more than 50 years. Four astronauts spent nearly 10 days in flight and traveled more than 1.1 million kilometers. Naturally, China, which has become the United States’ new competitor, could not afford to fall behind. According to available information, China aims to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030 and, together with Russia, establish a permanent lunar base by 2035.

This rivalry is not new. When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik into orbit in 1957, many became convinced that the United States was lagging behind its eastern rival. The space achievement dramatically increased the Soviet Union’s prestige. In 1961, when Yuri Gagarin became the first human to fly into space, President John F. Kennedy announced the national goal of reaching the Moon. When Neil Armstrong stepped onto the Moon in 1969, it was not only a scientific achievement, but also a geopolitical victory.

In that era, the space sector served as a symbol of soft power and technological superiority. Now, that competition is returning in a new form. The difference is that today’s race is not simply about planting a flag.

According to some unverified sources, the Moon may contain reserves of helium-3, a potential fuel for nuclear fusion. Although the technical details of extracting it and bringing it back to Earth remain unclear, many view Beijing’s push toward the Moon as an attempt to gain control over space resources. For this reason, the one-year Shenzhou-23 mission is important not only scientifically, but also strategically.

Turning to the West, or following Ukraine’s path

“It is impossible to be in a customs union with the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union at the same time,” the Russian leader once said. Yerevan, however, does not appear to share this view. Today, Armenia is expressing its goals openly, clearly and boldly.

On May 26, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while returning from India to Washington with his wife, landed in Yerevan for a brief working visit. At the airport, he held a joint press conference with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, and the two governments signed a number of historic agreements.

The most important of these was the Charter on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This is the key document raising relations between the two countries to the level of strategic partnership. Mirzoyan described it as a “historically unprecedented stage.”

“Considering the ongoing development of bilateral processes, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the parties have entered a historically unprecedented stage,” Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said.

Another important document was a framework agreement under “Trump’s Route for International Peace and Prosperity.” The project envisages the creation of a strategic transit corridor through Armenia’s Syunik region. It was emphasized that the route would operate exclusively under Armenian jurisdiction and would not affect the country’s sovereignty. Under the project, Armenia will grant the United States exclusive long-term rights of up to 99 years to develop the route, through which Azerbaijan hopes to establish a land connection with Nakhchivan. In the first stage, the United States is expected to receive a 74% stake, while Armenia would receive 26%. After the agreement is renewed, Armenia’s share could increase to 49%.

The third document was a memorandum of cooperation in the field of minerals and underground resources. Although Armenia is not a country with large reserves, this area also appears to be of particular importance to the United States.

Of course, this is an open move away from Russia and toward the West. Armenia’s rapprochement with the West did not happen overnight. These steps are the result of Yerevan losing Karabakh to Azerbaijan despite being an official member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and Moscow’s failure to meet Armenian expectations.

• In 2023, the European Union deployed a monitoring mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
• On March 26, 2025, Armenia’s parliament adopted a law officially launching the process of joining the European Union.
• In August 2025, cooperation between the United States and Armenia entered a new stage at the Washington summit.
• In January 2026, the framework agreement on “Trump’s Route for International Peace and Prosperity” was signed.
• On May 26, 2026, the Charter on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was officially announced.

The question is whether Moscow will remain silent this time. Analysts have different views. Some say Armenia could face the same fate as Ukraine, while others argue that this small country does not carry the same level of importance for Russia as Ukraine does.

How similar are the situations in Armenia and Ukraine? On one hand, there are significant differences. Yerevan is still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, although it has repeatedly threatened to withdraw. In addition, Armenia does not share a direct border with Russia, and the Kremlin’s direct military leverage over Yerevan is limited. Armenia’s rapprochement with Europe may irritate Moscow, but it does not create a border-level security threat.

On the other hand, Russia can use tools other than direct military pressure. These include economic pressure, information campaigns and the threat of diplomatic isolation.

This small country of 2.9 million people now resembles an important region caught between East and West. Its choice will shape not only its own future, but also the balance of power across the South Caucasus.

Putin now in Astana

Every diplomatic visit has its own purpose and its own hidden agenda. When Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on May 27, 2026, his visit was also full of such goals and plans.

At the airport, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev personally welcomed Putin. This was, of course, an important signal. However, even more attention was drawn by Kazakh air defense fighter jets, which performed a demonstration flight over the Palace of Independence and created the colors of the Russian flag in the sky with smoke trails.

The two leaders held expanded-format talks on May 28. At the end of the negotiations, 16 documents were signed.

The most notable and important document was an agreement on the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. Russia will finance 85% of the project. Construction of the plant is expected to be completed in 2035-2036. This is not simply another economic cooperation project or energy partnership. It means a 10-year strategic dependency. This raises a question: if a country agrees to build the foundation of its energy sector using the money of a neighboring state, how independently can it pursue policy toward that same state?

Other signed documents included:

• a cooperation program on nuclear and radiation safety for 2026-2030;
• memorandums on expanding bilateral cooperation in oil production and energy;
• cooperation on the North-South and Europe-Western China transit and transport corridors;
• a project to produce and launch the Soyuz-5 rocket at the Baiterek space complex.

Finally, the two presidents signed a joint declaration on the “Seven Pillars of Friendship and Good-Neighborliness.”

A day after the bilateral talks, Astana again became an important diplomatic stage. The latest summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council was held there. This is the highest body of the Eurasian Economic Union and consists of the presidents of member states. It meets at least once a year.

This time, the participants included the full members of the Eurasian Economic Union: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov. Armenia was represented not by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, but by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan. This was undoubtedly an important signal.

The expanded format also included leaders and representatives of observer states. They included Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Cuban Vice President Salvador Valdes Mesa, Iranian Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mohammad Atabak, and CIS Secretary General Sergey Lebedev.

At the beginning of the event, Tokayev presented reports at the summit and praised the organization’s achievements. It was reported that mutual trade within the Eurasian Economic Union exceeded $95 billion in 2025. Growth of more than 6% is expected in 2026.

Putin also listed the union’s key indicators in his speech. He emphasized that industrial production in the Eurasian Union had increased by 1.6%, agricultural output by 4.6% and construction volume by 4.2%. Speaking about the international standing of the Eurasian Economic Union, Putin said major regional organizations such as the CIS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were also interested in expanding ties with the union.

At the end of the summit, a package of important documents was signed. Particularly notable were protocols on customs legislation, decisions on financing agricultural cooperation, a decision to start negotiations on a free trade agreement with Tunisia, and a decision to update the terms of the existing free trade agreement with Serbia. In addition, a joint statement on the responsible development of artificial intelligence within the Eurasian Economic Union was adopted.

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev also attended the Astana summit. However, Uzbekistan participated as an observer. Why?

Uzbekistan has twice gone through the process of joining and leaving the Eurasian Economic Union and its predecessor integration structures. The first time was during the presidency of Islam Karimov. Uzbekistan was involved in integration formats starting with the Central Asian Cooperation Organization, established in 1993, but withdrew from the Eurasian Economic Community in 2008. The official explanation was that the organization was “not providing economic advantages for Uzbekistan.” Analysts, however, viewed the move as an attempt to avoid Russia’s dominant role and its hidden mechanisms of influence over other members. Uzbekistan returned to the Eurasian Economic Community in 2006 for certain reasons, but withdrew again in 2008.

During Mirziyoyev’s presidency, starting in 2019, Uzbekistan began building relations with the Eurasian Economic Union as an observer state. This time, Mirziyoyev also took an active part in the summit and put forward practical proposals. At the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, the Uzbek president proposed creating a barrier-free single digital trade space with Eurasian Economic Union countries.

At the end of the summit, a meeting was held between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In the presence of Tokayev and Mirziyoyev, a roadmap on investment and trade was signed. The document envisages the implementation of joint projects in sectors such as automotive manufacturing, energy, the chemical industry, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, logistics, construction materials, housing construction and agriculture. This agreement is a continuation of the understandings reached during the two leaders’ meetings in Bukhara and Turkistan in April and May.