Analysts: Uzbekistan highly likely to qualify for 2026 World Cup

The Uzbekistan national team has a 92.6 percent chance of directly qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a report by "We Global Football".  

Led by head coach Temur Kapadze, Uzbekistan is considered the main contender for a World Cup spot after Japan, Iran, and South Korea. The team solidified its position with a 1-0 victory over Kyrgyzstan in the 7th round of the third qualifying stage.  

Iran has the highest qualification probability in Group A, reaching 100 percent after the 7th round. Uzbekistan, currently in second place, is expected to qualify for the World Cup for the first time in its history. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates, which suffered a loss in the 7th round, has a 6 percent chance of qualification, while Qatar’s chances stand at 1.3 percent. The group’s bottom teams, Kyrgyzstan and North Korea, are given a 0 percent probability of making it to the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.  

For reference, the Asian continent has been allocated 8.5 slots for the upcoming tournament. The top two teams from each of the three groups will earn direct qualification, while the third and fourth-placed teams will compete for 2.5 remaining spots through playoff matches.  

As it stands after seven rounds, Uzbekistan is in second place in Group A with 16 points, trailing Iran, which leads with 19 points. The UAE and Qatar, both with 10 points, are in third and fourth places, respectively. Kyrgyzstan and North Korea occupy the last two spots with 3 and 2 points.  

It is worth noting that an earlier report by Football Meets Data had estimated Uzbekistan's qualification chances at 88 percent.