Uzbekistan's national debt was projected to surpass $45 billion in 2025

Uzbekistan's national debt is projected to reach $45.1 billion by the end of 2025. This figure is expected to account for 36.7 percent of the country’s GDP, according to the "Budget for Citizens" report released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

Updated estimates suggest that by the end of 2024, the national debt will reach $39.7 billion.

"By 2025, the public debt is projected to reach 45.1 billion dollars or 36.7 percent of GDP," the ministry stated.

By the end of 2024, newly signed agreements on state foreign debt will total $5 billion. Of this amount, $2.5 billion will be allocated to investment projects, and $2.5 billion will support the budget.

In 2025, an additional $5.5 billion in foreign debt is planned, with $3 billion allocated for budget support, and $2.5 billion reserved for investment projects.

Current Debt Figures

As of July 1, 2024, Uzbekistan's state debt amounted to $37 billion, or 33.2 percent of GDP. This includes $30.9 billion in external debt (27.7% of GDP), and $6.1 billion in domestic debt (5.5% of GDP).

The Ministry of Economy and Finance detailed how these funds have been spent across sectors:

• $13 billion for state budget support programs.
• $5.7 billion for energy projects.
• $2.8 billion for agriculture and water projects.
• $2.7 billion for transport projects.
• $2.7 billion for housing and communal economy projects.
• $2.3 billion for healthcare, education, and ICT projects.
• $1.7 billion for other sectors.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed the risks related to Uzbekistan’s public debt and overall foreign debt at a low level.

Over the past five years, the public debt-to-GDP ratio has consistently exceeded 30 percent, a trend expected to continue. By the end of 2024, the ratio is forecasted to be 35.5 percent, increasing slightly to 36.7 percent in 2025.

To prevent excessive borrowing, Uzbekistan’s budget law stipulates that the maximum public debt should not exceed 60 percent of the GDP forecast.