Trump takes Qatar under his wing: The US now plans to protect Qatar like Israel

Nearly a month after Qatar was attacked by Israel, the country is now turning into a second Israel in the Middle East. A few days ago, US President Donald Trump presented Qatar with a historic reward to ease long-standing tensions. On October 1, Trump signed an executive order guaranteeing Qatar’s security, declaring that any armed attack against the country would be regarded as a threat against the United States. In the decree, Trump stated that ensuring Qatar’s security and protecting its territorial integrity would henceforth be part of US policy. Washington, he said, “will take all legal and appropriate measures, including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military actions, to protect the interests of the United States and the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.” Experts predict that this decree could trigger seismic changes in Middle Eastern politics.

However, it is fair to say that those seismic shifts have already begun. The roots of this security guarantee trace back to Israel’s attack on Doha on September 9 this year, aimed at eliminating Hamas leaders. That incident had already changed the political landscape of the Middle East. Following the attack, Saudi Arabia effectively replaced the United States with Pakistan as its new security partner. The military agreement signed between Riyadh and Islamabad just a few weeks ago was almost identical to the guarantees the US is now granting to Qatar. This indicates that Arab states continue to pursue divergent foreign policies. The small but extremely wealthy Qatar is aligning itself with the United States, a country foreign to regional values, while the large and powerful Saudi Arabia has drawn closer to Pakistan, with which it shares strong religious and cultural ties. The Israel factor continues to divide these two camps. At this point, many questions and uncertainties arise — some of which we will attempt to address below.

Qatar wins

Trump’s historic decree was also distributed by the US Embassy in Qatar. Washington emphasized that for many years, the two countries had maintained cooperation in various fields, with Qatar hosting US forces and the Al-Udeid Air Base enabling critical security operations. It was also highlighted that Qatar had acted as a loyal ally in the pursuit of peace, stability, and prosperity, as well as serving as a mediator in resolving regional and global conflicts.

The September 9 attack has indeed led to numerous changes — with Qatar’s response standing out the most. Following the assault, Doha made a major diplomatic move by calling for an emergency Arab-Islamic summit of Muslim nations. Leaders of Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and several Arab states gathered, strongly condemning Israel’s aggression. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed to defend one another in the event of an external attack. These developments served as indirect pressure on Israel and its only remaining ally on the planet — the United States.

But what was the final outcome? In short, Qatar emerged victorious. Initially, Qatar vowed to retaliate against Israel for the attack, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to strike Doha again if it dared to respond. After Trump and Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani had dinner together in the United States, Doha postponed its retaliation. Trump later assured in various meetings that Netanyahu would not launch another attack on Qatar. Shortly after, during the UN General Assembly session, Netanyahu, who was visiting Washington, entered the White House and, in a phone call with Qatar’s prime minister facilitated by Trump, apologized for violating the country’s sovereignty. Israeli media reported that Trump personally demanded this apology. Moreover, after Israel’s formal apology, Doha demanded compensation for the family of the slain officer, and under US pressure, Israel reportedly agreed.

Thus, while Qatar did not strike back at Israel, it gained far more in return — a US security guarantee. This means Qatar now enjoys a relationship with Washington nearly as close as Israel’s. The executive order stating that any threat to Qatar’s sovereignty will henceforth be viewed as a threat to the United States implies that Washington will defend Doha much like its NATO partners. Although Qatar is not a NATO member, such a level of protection was previously enjoyed only by Israel. From a security policy standpoint, Qatar can now, in some sense, be regarded as a “second Israel” in the Middle East.

Why did Trump do it?

Trump’s decision to grant Qatar such massive compensation surprised many. Washington’s security guarantee is no ordinary gesture — obtaining such protection usually requires the backing of numerous lobbies in Congress, the White House, and across the US political establishment, as Israel does. Yet Qatar lacks such influence. Despite that, Doha succeeded in securing US protection. Analysts link this to several factors.

First, during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, Tehran struck Qatar. The attacks were directed at US assets — specifically, the Al-Udeid Air Base located in Qatar — in retaliation for the devastating strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Thus, Qatar suffered collateral damage due to its hosting of US forces.

Second, Israel’s airstrike in Doha that killed senior Hamas figures marked the second time Qatar had been attacked this year because of its cooperation with Washington. After all, Qatar mediates between Hamas and Israel at the request of the United States.

Experts argue that these events gave Qatar legitimate grounds to formally request a US security guarantee. Alarmed by escalating risks, the Al Thani family was forced to appeal to Washington for written, unilateral assurances. Their reasoning was simple: as long as Qatar supported US policies, it was being targeted by other states — meaning Washington had a responsibility to protect it. However, analysts suggest that beyond this, significant economic and personal interests were also at play. Earlier this year, Trump’s visit to Doha secured trillion-dollar investments, and the Qatari Emir reportedly gifted him a private jet worth half a billion dollars — factors that may have influenced Trump’s decision to provide Qatar with a security umbrella never before extended to any Gulf state.

There is also another crucial but often overlooked factor: the defense pact recently signed between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan to protect each other from external attacks. This development represented a loss for the US, as Trump’s close ally, the “Dark Prince” of Riyadh, entered a defense agreement with another power. Despite the periodic rapprochement between Pakistan and the US — largely influenced by India — ideological divisions continue to separate them. The Israel factor, again, plays an underlying role here.

Why has the US long avoided granting security guarantees to Arab States?

Although the United States maintains several military bases across the Middle East, it has long refrained from providing formal security guarantees to Arab nations. There are several reasons for this. Chief among them was the risk of direct confrontation with Iran. Deep sectarian divides between Sunni Arabs and Shi’a Muslims have always shaped regional politics. For instance, following the 2019 Houthi attacks, Iran launched drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Yet, at that time, Trump — despite being seen as a close ally — refused to deploy US troops or Patriot missile systems to defend Saudi Arabia.

Another factor is the internal discord among Arab monarchies themselves. In recent history, these states have often been at odds — most notably the rift between Doha and Riyadh. From 2017 to 2020, Saudi-led Gulf countries imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and criticizing Al Jazeera’s liberal editorial stance. In such circumstances, granting a US security guarantee to any Arab monarchy would have been a political minefield. For Washington, mandatory defense obligations could easily drag it into regional conflicts.

Qatar, however, had long sought such protection. The Al Thani family had supported US military and diplomatic initiatives in the region for years. Yet successive US presidents, regardless of party, avoided granting this guarantee out of fear that Saudi Arabia or the UAE would soon demand similar treatment.

Can Qatar trust the US guarantee?

There are doubts surrounding the credibility of Washington’s new security guarantee to Qatar — especially since it comes directly from Trump. Legally, international agreements must be approved by the Senate to carry binding force. However, historically, US presidents have often entered international accords without Senate consent. The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran under Barack Obama is a prime example.

Qatar has long been one of America’s principal military partners in the region. By hosting the vast Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar has allowed the US Central Command to operate more effectively. Even before Trump, former President Joe Biden in 2022 designated Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States.

The key issue now, however, lies in who is providing the guarantee and the nature of that individual’s reliability. Analysts warn that Trump has a high likelihood of failing to fulfill his commitments, given his unpredictable approach to both domestic and foreign policy. Political analyst Aaron David Miller describes Trump as a “situational and transactional” leader — one who acts without strategic foresight. Miller cited the fruitless summit between Trump and Putin in Anchorage as an example.

Moreover, public trust in the current US leader — whose statements on Monday often contradict those on Tuesday — has already eroded. Considering that Trump quietly allowed an attack on a country that had invested trillions of dollars in the US and gifted him a luxurious jet, his security guarantees appear worth little more than a yellow cent. In essence, this situation resembles “a wolf offering to guard the lamb.”