Midweek: Security guarantees for Ukraine, Milley's fraud, and Turkish wealth

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had nearly lost hope of Ukraine joining NATO at the Munich conference, traveled to Turkey in search of security guarantees. Meanwhile, in the Saudi capital, Riyadh—2,000 kilometers from Ankara—discussions among key political figures took place without his participation, addressing broader issues related to Ukraine’s future.  

Argentina’s controversial president, Javier Milei, a former TikToker known for his flamboyant style, is facing allegations of fraud. 

Selçuk Bayraktar, the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an entrepreneur and the creator of Turkey’s renowned combat drones, has been listed among the country's 15 wealthiest billionaires.  

                               The "tokenist" president  

Javier Milei, Argentina’s ultra-populist leader who rose to prominence through TikTok, is now entangled in a financial scandal. He is accused of fraud linked to the Libra cryptocurrency. Milei promoted Libra on his social media platforms, an unusual move for a sitting president but not surprising given his unconventional political style. However, the situation quickly escalated into controversy. Following Milei’s endorsement, the cryptocurrency’s value surged, reaching a market capitalization of $4.5 billion. But within just three hours, its price collapsed by 95% as insiders began offloading large quantities of the token. Investors who had bought in at the peak suffered significant losses, with many going bankrupt. In response to the incident, opposition lawmaker Leandro Santoro condemned the situation as an “international disgrace” and called for impeachment proceedings against Milei. Additionally, legal action has been initiated against him. Despite this, the president denies any involvement in the project.  Milei has since deleted his promotional post about Libra. According to local media, the post remained online for several hours on February 14, claiming that the Libra project would boost Argentina’s economy. It also included a link to the project's website and the token’s contract address. Shortly after removing the post, Milei released a statement denying any connection to the cryptocurrency.  

“I was unaware of the details of this project. When I found out later, I decided to stop promoting it to the public,” he stated.  

While the accusations against Milei remain unproven, if confirmed, he could go down in history as one of the biggest financial fraudsters of the 21st century—surpassing even Victor Lustig, the infamous conman who "sold" the Eiffel Tower and deceived crime boss Al Capone.

                Not just a son-in-law: Bayraktar is conquering milestones

Selçuk Bayraktar, the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the owner of Baykar Teknoloji, has secured the 15th spot in Forbes’ ranking of the richest people in Turkey. His brother, Haluk Bayraktar, is also among the top 20. Recent figures indicate a sharp increase in the brothers' wealth over the past few years. Selçuk Bayraktar, who owns 52.5% of Baykar's shares, has seen his fortune rise from $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion. Meanwhile, his brother Haluk Bayraktar, who holds a 47.5% stake, has increased his wealth from $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion. Strategic investments in the defense industry and a surge in production have significantly boosted Baykar Teknoloji’s valuation. The company, known for manufacturing combat drones such as the Bayraktar TB2 and AKINCI, continues expanding its global market share. The company's international reputation grew after its drones played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's victory in the Karabakh war and later served as a key defense tool for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. These battlefield successes have drawn considerable international attention, further contributing to the brothers' rising fortunes. Their rapid financial ascent is reflected in Forbes’ rankings. For instance, Selçuk Bayraktar, Baykar’s board chairman and technical director, jumped 535 spots—from 2,410th place in 2024 to 1,875th this year. Haluk Bayraktar, the company’s CEO, climbed 508 places, rising from 2,545th to 2,037th.  

Baykar was founded in 1984 by Selçuk and Haluk’s father, Özdemir Bayraktar, one of Turkey’s most influential industrial figures of his time. For many years, the company focused on manufacturing spare parts for the Turkish automotive industry. However, in the early 2000s, Baykar shifted its focus to drone production. Today, Baykar’s flagship product, the Bayraktar drone, is in high demand worldwide. In 2023, the company became Turkey’s largest defense exporter, securing contracts with partners across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. While some attribute Baykar's success to Selçuk’s ties with President Erdoğan, the company’s trajectory suggests otherwise.  The connection between the Bayraktar and Erdoğan families is longstanding. Özdemir Bayraktar, Selçuk's father, had known Erdoğan since childhood. In 2016, Selçuk married Sümeyye Erdoğan, the youngest daughter of the Turkish president. However, Selçuk’s career path and achievements indicate that his success is not solely due to these ties. The 45-year-old entrepreneur has an impressive academic background. He graduated from Istanbul Technical University in 2002, earned a master’s degree from the University of Pennsylvania and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and later obtained a doctorate from the Georgia Institute of Technology. In 2014, he led the development of Turkey’s first indigenous combat drone, the Bayraktar TB2, now exported to dozens of countries. His contributions to defense technology have earned him several prestigious awards, including Azerbaijan’s Order of Karabakh in 2021 and Ukraine’s Order of Merit (Third Class) in 2022, presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Despite his focus on technological advancements, speculation about Selçuk Bayraktar’s political future is growing. Some believe he could be a potential successor to Erdoğan. In 2023, "The Wall Street Journal" reported that Bayraktar might run for president in Turkey’s next elections. His supporters have reportedly considered nominating him as a candidate, and Turkish political analysts have not ruled out the possibility. In an interview with "The Wall Street Journal" last year, Bayraktar stated that he had no intention of entering politics but did not dismiss the idea entirely. Meanwhile, Erdoğan, who has been in power for over two decades, has announced that he will not seek re-election in 2028. However, given his long-standing political influence and his statement that he will stand by the Turkish people “not just until the market, but until the grave,” it is unlikely that he will step away from politics entirely. One potential strategy for Erdoğan to maintain power is transitioning Turkey into a parliamentary system and assuming the role of prime minister. Yet, if Selçuk Bayraktar’s success continues at its current pace and his popularity among both Turkish citizens and the international community grows, Erdoğan may not need to take such measures to secure his political legacy.

                                           Zelensky in a hurry

Following the Munich Security Conference, which temporarily paralyzed Europe and was attended by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky paid an official visit to the United Arab Emirates on February 16. The primary purpose of the visit was reportedly to further advance prisoner exchange efforts. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE has played a key mediating role in facilitating exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow. For instance, on February 5, a 150-for-150 prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia was carried out under UAE mediation.  After his visit to the UAE, Zelensky traveled to Turkey, another important mediator in this process. On February 18, he was received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the Presidential Palace in Ankara. The main objective of this visit, as previously stated, was to accelerate the release of Ukrainian soldiers held in captivity. Additionally, discussions focused on food security issues. Meanwhile, during a separate meeting between the First Ladies—Olena Zelenska and Emine Erdoğan—humanitarian aid was the primary topic of discussion. However, it has become evident that Zelensky’s agenda in Turkey extended beyond these humanitarian and security concerns. He also sought Ankara’s support in securing the kind of assistance he has been requesting from the European Union, particularly security guarantees. According to Zelensky, Ukraine expects such guarantees not only from Europe and the United States but also from Turkey.  

In recent days, Zelensky appears to have little choice but to rely on security assurances from a select group of nations. After NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte downplayed Kyiv’s prospects of joining the alliance during the Munich conference, the Ukrainian president has been forced to explore alternative measures. When speaking of security guarantees outside NATO, Zelensky refers to defense mechanisms similar to those provided to Israel. During a February 17 interview with NBC, he specifically highlighted this issue in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict. He pointed out that when Iran launched missile strikes against Israel last year, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and even Jordan intervened by deploying air defense systems to protect Israel. Zelensky argued that Ukraine requires a similar level of international protection.  

“What do we need? We don’t know exactly how it works, but when Iran attacked Israel, the United States, France, Great Britain, and other allies, even Jordan, stepped in to protect the Israeli people with their air defense systems. Israel is not a NATO member, yet these countries stood by it. They intercepted and destroyed the Iranian missiles. This is, of course, a good thing. I believe Ukraine needs the same guarantees, and this must be done as soon as possible,” Zelensky stated.  

In his push for security assurances, Zelensky had previously proposed at the Munich conference that NATO provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry and a 1.5 million-strong army as an alternative to membership. He believes that such a force would be sufficient to defend Ukraine. Meanwhile, the "Associated Press" has reported that several European countries have been secretly working on a plan to deploy troops to Ukraine. According to the publication, discussions around this idea began nearly a year ago, with the United Kingdom and France being the most active proponents. The main catalyst for this acceleration is the evolving security stance of the new U.S. administration. However, specific details of the plan remain undisclosed. The estimated size of the European contingent being considered for deployment reportedly ranges between 30,000 and 40,000 troops, depending on the conditions outlined in a future peace agreement. European officials, however, have not confirmed these figures. Additionally, not all European nations are willing to commit troops. Poland, for instance, has already stated that it has no plans to send forces to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the United Kingdom and Sweden have both expressed readiness to deploy peacekeeping troops.  As Ukraine’s search for security guarantees intensifies, Zelensky continues to press for stronger international commitments, even as uncertainties over NATO membership persist.

                     Meeting between “heavyweights”  

While Zelensky was in Turkey, an official U.S.-Russia meeting took place in Saudi Arabia. The talks, chaired by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, included key figures such as Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Notably, neither the EU nor Ukraine was invited. As news of the secretive U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh spread, it triggered a sharp reaction, particularly from Zelensky. He firmly stated that Ukraine would not recognize any agreements made regarding its fate without Kyiv’s involvement. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce later clarified that the meeting was not the beginning of formal negotiations on Ukraine but rather a follow-up to a phone conversation between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The composition of the Russian delegation suggested broader economic discussions beyond Ukraine. The presence of Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, signaled an interest in rekindling U.S.-Russia economic ties. Before the negotiations, Dmitriev told Russian media that American oil companies might eventually return to Russia and that the Kremlin was open to joint Arctic projects with the U.S.  

“We believe they will return someday. Why would they willingly forfeit access to Russia’s natural resources?” Dmitriev remarked.  

He further claimed that U.S. firms had lost approximately €300 billion due to sanctions imposed on Russia, blaming the Biden administration for spreading "false information" about Russia’s economic stability. According to *The Moscow Times*, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only one major American company—ExxonMobil—was involved in oil production in Russia. Exxon held a 30% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project but was unable to sell its shares due to Kremlin-imposed restrictions, extended until 2026.  Meanwhile, U.S. oilfield services giants such as Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes withdrew from Russia in 2022, severely impacting Russia’s oil production capacity. In response, Putin ordered an increase in domestic drilling technology to 80% by 2025, though over half of such equipment still originates from "unfriendly" nations.  

As for discussions on Ukraine, few details have emerged. Yuri Ushakov described the negotiations as "successful" and stated that both sides agreed to "consider each other’s interests in the future." The potential for a U.S.-Russia summit was also raised, though Ushakov dismissed any notion of immediate rapprochement, cryptically stating, "It is difficult to say that our positions are getting closer, but the topic was discussed."  Does this suggest the Trump administration has no major objections to Russia's ongoing actions in Ukraine? Or, as some critics might jest, did Hillary Clinton actually win the 2016 election?