Central Bank leaves key rate unchanged

Today, October 24, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the key policy rate unchanged at 14 percent. This was announced by the press service of the Central Bank.

According to the statement, economic activity trends continued in the third quarter of this year. The maintenance of relatively tight monetary conditions, the fading impact of last year’s inflationary factors, and the stabilizing effect of the strengthening exchange rate on commodity prices contributed to the slowdown of annual inflation in September.

However, against a backdrop of active aggregate demand, risks of price increases related to external supply factors and high services inflation persist. Taking these factors into account, the Central Bank Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at an annual level of 14 percent.

In September 2025, the overall inflation rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 8 percent annually. Food and non-food goods groups contributed to this slowdown, with inflation decreasing to 6.1 percent year-on-year. Services inflation, even without the impact of regulated prices, remains above the general inflation rate due to demand factors. Due to tighter monetary conditions slightly moderating demand factors and the impact of a strengthened exchange rate, core inflation has entered a decelerating dynamic and slowed to 7 percent year-on-year in September. In particular, the strengthening of the Soum is helping to slow down import inflation and stabilize non-food commodity prices to some extent.

In recent months, the share of goods and services whose price growth in the consumer basket has slowed compared to the corresponding period last year is increasing, indicating that price stabilization is becoming broad-based. In September, inflation expectations of the public and entrepreneurs continued to decline, though they remain above current and forecast inflation rates.

Considering the above, the inflation forecast for the end of the current year has been revised downwards and is expected to be around 8 percent.

The high economic growth and investment activity in the third quarter of this year is expected to continue into the next quarter, with a real GDP growth forecast of around 7–7.5 percent for the year-end.

The growth in real incomes of the population and active retail lending are supporting purchasing power and increasing consumer demand. This, in turn, may contribute to the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy in the future.

At the same time, the possibility of secondary effects on inflation from the liberalization of energy prices in the coming months, as well as the risk of supply-related issues for certain goods, remains.

Under these circumstances, ensuring a stable downward trajectory of inflation requires maintaining the current relatively tight level of monetary conditions.

Relatively tight monetary conditions will serve to rebalance aggregate demand by preserving the attractiveness of savings in the economy, optimizing lending rates, and proportionately shaping resource prices in the money market, thereby reducing the impact of monetary factors on inflation.

"The Central Bank will ensure a sufficiently tight level of monetary conditions to achieve the inflation target of 5 percent in the medium term," the statement reads.

For information, the next meeting of the Central Bank Board to review the key rate is scheduled for December 11, 2025.

It is worth recalling that the Central Bank Board decided to keep the key policy rate at an annual level of 14 percent at its meeting on September 11.