Kazakhstan sharply reduces imports from Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan is the only major importer of Uzbek goods that has reduced, rather than increased, its volume of imports over the past decade, according to a report by "Ranking.kz".

In 2023, exports from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan decreased by 32% compared to 2013, amounting to just $1.4 billion. This decline was not only in the total value but also in Kazakhstan's share of Uzbekistan's overall exports. In 2013, Kazakhstan accounted for 14.5% of Uzbekistan's foreign trade revenue. Ten years later, this share has fallen to 5.7%.

The downturn began in 2015, with a sharp 25.7% drop in Uzbek exports to Kazakhstan, followed by an even steeper 48.9% decline the next year. By 2016, the export value from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan was $1.8 billion, a level that has not been reached since. From January to August 2024, Uzbekistan's exports to Kazakhstan saw an additional 8.2% decrease, according to Uzbek statistics.

In recent years, the Uzbek government has worked to diversify its export markets, both geographically and in product composition. The number of countries buying Uzbek products has expanded from 149 to 178, and the government has aimed to reduce dependence on single markets. For example, in 2013, a quarter of Uzbekistan's exports went to Russia; now, this share has declined to 14.1%. A similar trend is seen with China, where the share of Uzbek goods dropped from 14.3% to 10% over the last decade.

According to the Uzbek Statistics Agency, Kazakhstan imported $872 million worth of products from Uzbekistan in the first eight months of this year. However, figures from the State Revenue Committee of Kazakhstan's Ministry of Finance indicate a lower amount—$761.5 million—suggesting a discrepancy of over $100 million.

Based on Kazakhstan’s customs data, Uzbek exports in the first eight months of 2024 primarily consisted of automobile industry products, which accounted for 28.4% of total imports. During this period, Kazakhstan imported $215.9 million worth of cars and components, including engines, from Uzbekistan. The second largest category was fruits and vegetables, amounting to $132.2 million. Other significant imports included metallurgical and light industrial products, household appliances, and tobacco.

What Kazakhstan exports to Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan’s exports to Uzbekistan are largely raw materials, especially grain. In the first eight months of 2024, over 1.9 million tons of grain products, including 1.8 million tons of wheat and meslin, were shipped to Uzbekistan, with a total trade value of $370 million. In comparison, flour exports were lower, with 277,300 tons worth $90.6 million. Kazakh officials have raised concerns about the country's missed opportunities to export more value-added products like processed grain, but the situation remains unchanged.

Kazakhstan continues to supply raw materials to processing plants in Uzbekistan, where they are refined and then exported to other countries. According to KazTAG, citing Kazakh Senator Arman Utegulov, Uzbekistan is expected to process about 1 million tons of Kazakh grain for export to Afghanistan.

A significant portion of Kazakhstan's exports to Uzbekistan also includes metallurgical products, making up 22.3% of the total. In the first eight months of this year, Kazakhstan exported $319.9 million worth of ferrous metal products and $66.3 million of non-ferrous metal ores and concentrates to Uzbekistan. Additionally, Kazakhstan shipped oil and oil products ($65.1 million), meat ($70.2 million), vegetable oils ($102.6 million), and sugar ($30 million).

Comparing the trade volumes, it is evident that the value of exports from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan is twice that of Uzbek exports to Kazakhstan. This trend is particularly clear in the most recent period, where Kazakhstan's exports reached $1.7 billion, while imports from Uzbekistan stood at $0.8 billion.

Overall, the trade volume between the two neighboring countries during the first eight months of 2024 decreased by nearly 15%, falling from $2.9 billion to $2.5 billion, according to data from Kazakhstan's National Bureau of Statistics. In 2023, Uzbekistan's share in Kazakhstan's total trade turnover also declined, dropping from 3.2% to 2.7%.