Midweek: Iran bombings, Trump’s papal joke, and Putin’s controversial ceasefire

India may invade Pakistan in the coming hours. In any case, Islamabad officials are closely monitoring the situation with such suspicions.

Iran has witnessed two terrible explosions in the past four days: one at the port in Bandar Abbas, and the other at a factory that has long been under Western sanctions.

Putin is stealing the show again. This time, he declared a 2-3 day truce just so he can sit quietly at the parade scheduled to be held in a few days. Trump recommended his man for the papacy.

QALAMPIR.UZ's Midweek program covers details of important events that have taken place in the world until the middle of the week.

India may set foot in Pakistan in the coming hours

The conflict between India and Pakistan is intensifying. Five rounds of firing have been reported along the border since the attack in Kashmir. The latest such exchange of fire took place on the night of April 29 along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, according to an Indian army statement. Forty-eight tourist attractions in the Indian-administered territory have been closed, according to reports. Security has been tightened in the Pahalgam district, where the attack occurred. It is unclear how long the area's attractions will remain closed. Locals fear the attack will seriously damage tourism, the region's main source of income.

Pakistan has moved military equipment to the border with India. Dozens of self-propelled artillery units of the Pakistani army have been spotted 80 kilometers from the Indian border on the Line of Actual Control.

As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, countries around the world are arming both sides. For example, Flightradar has recorded several Turkish military transport planes flying into Pakistan. Pakistani sources claimed that six Turkish Air Force C-130 military transport aircraft landed at a military base in Islamabad.

France, for its part, is also taking advantage of the situation to sell arms to India. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu signed a contract for the supply of 26 French Dassault Rafale fighter jets. The contract, worth about 6.5 billion euros, includes the supply of 22 Rafale-M fighter jets and four Rafale-D trainer aircraft. Along with the French fighter jets, India has been using Russian aircraft based on the Vikramaditya aircraft carrier since 2009. As of 2023, the country had 42 such fighters, but almost half of them are in reserve.

Fears of a full-scale military clash between the two countries are growing by the hour. In particular, such fears have been revived in Islamabad in recent days. Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said a few hours ago that the country has reliable intelligence indicating that India intends to launch a military strike in the next 24 to 36 hours. If this timeframe is accurate, then there are only a few hours left for this assumption to become a reality.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif also said in an interview with Reuters that a military attack by India is imminent. He added that such a step would only be taken if there is a direct threat to Pakistan's existence, without ruling out the use of nuclear weapons.

Iran blasts

Iran has suffered two deadly blasts in four days. On April 26, a powerful explosion at the Shahid Rajaee seaport near the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas killed 70 people and injured more than 1,200. Initial reports suggested that the disaster was caused by an explosion of sodium perchlorate, a key component of solid fuel used for missiles, at the port. However, on April 27, the country's Defense Ministry stated that there were no military cargoes at the port and that such reports were being made under the influence of Iran's enemies. Interestingly, this incident occurred shortly after the start of the third round of talks in Oman on the nuclear program, where the Persians have shown resistance to bowing to Trump. Some sources suggest that the explosion may have been staged. However, no official information has confirmed this.

According to Iranian media, the explosion shattered windows within a radius of several kilometers. In addition, many photos on the Internet show a huge plume of smoke after the explosion.

Following the incident, Iranian authorities took several measures. In particular, the Ministry of Health declared a state of emergency in the region, advising people to stay indoors, close windows, and wear masks. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country's Interior Minister had traveled to the region to oversee the investigation into the explosion. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered security and judicial authorities to investigate the explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas and determine whether it was intentional or accidental. In a special address, he expressed condolences to the families of the deceased and wished a speedy recovery to the injured. Additionally, the Ayatollah reminded officials to consider the possibility of a bomb being involved in the incident. However, Iranian officials have stated that there is no current evidence to support the bomb theory.

The photos published so far show that part of the port has been severely damaged. The number of people killed and injured in the explosion at the port was substantial, and the incident has been met with great concern worldwide. Among many heads of state, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev also sent his condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

For your information, Bandar Abbas is located at a strategically important point on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, where the Persian Gulf connects with the Gulf of Oman. According to the Ports and Shipping Organization, it is the largest port in Iran. Last year, 85 percent of the country's containers were transported through it, as well as a large portion of Iran's oil. In 2020, a cyberattack targeted computers at the same port, causing massive disruptions to waterways and roads leading to the facility.

As noted above, the explosions in Iran in the past few days have not been limited to Bandar Abbas. Shortly after the incident at the port, a similar explosion occurred at the warehouse of a company specializing in the production of pyrotechnics and explosives in the city of Isfahan. The Isfahan Provincial Emergency Situations Department confirmed the explosion at the Avanar Parzian company's factory. It was reported that one person was killed and several others were injured. The company was engaged in the production and sale of rockets and dynamite. It was also noted that its operations are supervised by the country's Supreme National Security Council.

According to sources from *Iran International*, the company may be connected to the Iranian Aviation Industry Company, a major manufacturer of unmanned aerial vehicles. This raises further suspicions about who or what may be behind the explosions, given the series of serious incidents in the country. The Iranian Aviation Industry Company provides technical and overhaul services to the country's military helicopters and aircraft. It is subordinate to the Iranian Aviation Industry Organization, which was listed by the European Union many years ago as an organization linked to Iran's sensitive nuclear activities or the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems.

Kazakhs are being recruited into the invasion of Ukraine

There have been reports that leaflets are being widely distributed on the streets of Kazakhstan, calling on citizens to participate in a war in a foreign country. The story concerns the Russian Ministry of Defense recruiting citizens of other countries to join Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has become a significant issue for Central Asian countries. Recently, photos of such leaflets have appeared on social media. The leaflets display the name of the Russian Ministry of Defense and its contact details. These photos were sent to the editorial office of "Tengrinews.kz" by users on social networks. They claim that the leaflets were distributed in the streets of Astana and Almaty.

The publication has sent official requests to the National Security Committee and the Ministry of Internal Affairs regarding the incident. According to the National Security Committee, an investigation is underway into the online distribution of these leaflets. However, it has not been confirmed that the leaflets were physically handed out on the streets.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs also stated that it had not determined whether the leaflets were physically distributed. However, the ministry did not rule out that leaflets containing these recruitment appeals had been posted on social media. The Ministry of Internal Affairs strongly advises Kazakhstan's citizens to comply with the country’s legislation and refrain from such actions, which can lead to serious legal consequences.

For your information, in Kazakhstan, the deliberate illegal participation of citizens in the armed conflict or military operations of another state is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 5 to 9 years. Since 2022, 97 criminal cases have been opened in Kazakhstan for the participation of citizens in wars abroad. This means that since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at least 97 Kazakhs have joined military conflicts abroad. The lack of a peace-loving attitude from Kazakhstan’s northern neighbor is a multifaceted problem for the country, causing growing concerns.

As noted earlier, this issue is a real headache not only for Kazakhstan but for all of Central Asia. For example, just a few days ago, an employee of the "Russian House" was arrested in Kyrgyzstan on charges of recruiting citizens for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One of the officials of the "Russian House" in the city of Osh, Natalia Sekerina, was to be held in custody until June 17, according to a court decision. However, on April 28, the Pervomai District Court in Bishkek eased the precautionary measure against Sekerina and another person, whose name was not disclosed, in the case of recruiting Kyrgyz citizens into the Russian army. According to a source in Kyrgyzstan’s security forces, TASS reported that all the defendants in this case were placed under house arrest following a meeting between the head of the State Committee for National Security of Kyrgyzstan, Kamchibek Tashiev, and the Russian Ambassador to the republic, Sergei Vakunov.

Trump wants to install his own man in the papacy

The funeral of former Pope Francis, who died of a stroke on April 21 this year at the age of 88, was held on April 26 in St. Peter's Square in the Vatican, with about 200,000 people in attendance. Now, attention turns to who will succeed him. It is reported that the highest clergy of the Roman Catholic Church gathered behind closed doors on April 28 to set a date for the election of a new pope. According to the reports, cardinals will gather in a conclave to elect a new pope on May 7.

However, the date of the conclave has not yet been officially announced. According to the rules of the Roman Catholic Church, the conclave to elect a new pope should have been set between May 5 and 11.

For your information, cardinals under the age of 80 can participate in the conclave and be elected. Currently, 135 of the 252 members of the council meet this criterion. Until a new pope is chosen, cardinals are prohibited from communicating with the outside world.

This is not the main point of focus here. The key issue is not who will be elected pope, but the stance of current US President Donald Trump on the matter. On April 29, Trump humorously nominated himself in response to a reporter's question about who will be the next pope. Of course, this was undoubtedly a joke. Trump has been married three times and is currently married, while the Catholic Church has forbidden popes from marrying for more than a thousand years. However, another statement made by Trump that day attracted attention. After joking about his desire to become pope, he, in a somewhat serious tone, recommended that the conclave consider the candidacy of the New York cardinal and stated that he would follow the developments. However, American publications report that Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York is not among the favorites to occupy the papal throne. Moreover, throughout history, a pope has never been elected from the United States.

Of course, the eventual election of a new pope will not significantly impact geopolitics. The Catholic Church and the papacy have lost much of their power and influence over the centuries. Today, the person holding the papal position does not play the same important role in the domestic and foreign policies of Catholic states as it did several hundred years ago during the time of Innocent III. The power of the Catholic Church began to decline in 1303, when the ambassador of King Philip IV of France slapped Pope Boniface VIII in the face. The rise of Protestantism in the 16th century, founded by those who broke away from the Catholic movement, effectively ended the political power of the pope, limiting it to the Vatican.

Is the “May 9 truce” proof of Putin’s selfishness?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared a truce on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in World War II, to be held on May 9 this year. The truce will last from 00:00 on May 8 to 00:00 on May 11, with the Russian army halting all hostilities during this period. The Kremlin has stated that this decision is based on humanitarian considerations. In its announcement, the Kremlin also urged Ukraine to follow suit and warned that the Russian army would respond firmly if the truce was violated.

Putin had previously declared a temporary ceasefire for several hours around Easter 10 days ago. However, this ceasefire ultimately proved to be more of a formality, as the Ukrainian side claimed that the Russian army violated more than 2,000 ceasefire rules during the designated period. Putin's new proposal for a truce seems even more questionable, as it is clear that his main motivation is to ensure the smooth and peaceful conduct of the Moscow parade. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to reject the ceasefire, criticizing Putin's intentions. Zelensky argued that Ukraine was ready to "work with all partners" to end the war but accused Russia of refusing to engage in any meaningful peace efforts and of attempting to manipulate global opinion and deceive the United States. Zelensky added that any truce should not be held for the sake of a parade but should aim to save lives.

"Now there is another attempt at manipulation: for some reason, everyone should wait until May 8 and only then cease fire in order to keep Putin silent during the parade. We value people's lives, not parades. That is why we believe – the world believes – that there is no reason to wait for May 8. The firing should stop for more than a few days so that they cannot start killing again. An immediate, complete, and unconditional ceasefire – and at least 30 days," Zelensky said.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that there was no need to wait for May 8. They argued that a ceasefire could be established immediately, not just for the duration of a parade, but for a genuine, long-lasting peace.

The United States also expressed disappointment with Putin's proposal. White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt issued a statement asserting that "US President Donald Trump wants a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine, not a temporary one." Trump, after attending Pope Francis’s funeral and having informal discussions with Zelensky, returned to the US with a renewed resolve to confront Putin. He later posted on his platform, expressing skepticism about Putin's desire to end the war and asserting that he would force Putin to negotiate peace through the imposition of financial sanctions.

Putin’s actions suggest that the May 9 truce may be more about optics than actual peace efforts. While framing the truce as a humanitarian gesture, it appears aimed primarily at ensuring a peaceful parade, not a meaningful cessation of hostilities. This raises the question of whether Putin’s truce is a genuine attempt at peace or merely a tactical move to bolster his image on the international stage. In the eyes of many, this move could be seen as yet another example of Putin prioritizing his own interests over the lives of those affected by the war.