Midweek: Trump’s vision for Gaza, Syria’s foreign visits, and the plane crash investigation

This week, global politics is marked by escalating trade tensions, shifting alliances, and renewed diplomatic maneuvers. U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his economic confrontation by imposing fresh tariffs on China, following temporary compromises with Canada and Mexico. While his administration claims these measures will protect American interests, they risk economic disruptions both at home and abroad.

In the Middle East, a surprising shift in alliances is unfolding as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, voices unexpected support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This development raises questions about Turkey’s evolving strategy in Syria and the potential geopolitical consequences of such an alliance.

Meanwhile, diplomatic channels between Russia and Ukraine hint at possible negotiations, though uncertainty looms over whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be included in the talks. At the same time, tensions rise over the investigation into an Azerbaijani plane crash, which could impact relations between Moscow and Baku.

“Old Age” in U.S. Foreign Policy

On February 4, China announced new tariffs on several American goods in response to the U.S. administration’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied gas, along with a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and vehicles. This move followed Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese products, raising concerns over the potential for prolonged economic conflict. Despite this, reports suggest that Trump may soon hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, leaving room for speculation on whether a resolution similar to those with Canada and Mexico could emerge.

Trump has already demonstrated flexibility in negotiations with U.S. neighbors. On February 3, just a day before new tariffs were set to take effect, Trump reached agreements with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The U.S. agreed to delay tariffs for a month in exchange for Mexico deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border and Canada implementing a $1.3 billion border control plan with 10,000 additional guards. However, Trump acknowledged that these economic maneuvers could have short-term negative consequences for American consumers, as reduced imports from key trading partners may lead to product shortages.

Further escalating tensions, Trump has hinted at extending his tariff policies to the European Union, citing a $300 billion trade deficit and accusing Europe of unfair trade practices. In response, the EU has warned of retaliatory measures, vowing to defend its economic interests. Meanwhile, Trump has also threatened BRICS countries with extreme tariffs if they move away from the U.S. dollar as an international trade currency. This aggressive trade stance signals that Trump’s economic confrontations may continue to escalate on multiple fronts.

Arab States Say “No” to Trump Again

Trump’s foreign policy faced another setback as his recent proposal regarding the Palestinian population was swiftly rejected by Arab nations. The U.S. president suggested relocating Gaza residents to Jordan and Egypt under the pretense of improving their living conditions. However, this plan was met with immediate resistance.

On February 1, at a meeting in Cairo, foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and the Palestinian Authority firmly opposed any forced displacement of Palestinians. Critics have likened Trump’s proposal to ethnic cleansing, warning that it could destabilize the region and jeopardize peace efforts. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reaffirmed his country’s refusal to participate in such a plan, emphasizing that Egypt’s population would not accept it.

Despite this rejection, Trump remains persistent. On January 30, he remarked, “We have done a lot for them, now they must agree to it,” referring to U.S. financial and military assistance to Egypt and Jordan. Speculation continues about whether Trump will push his plan further during his upcoming meeting with al-Sisi in Washington. The closed-door discussions may reveal whether Egypt will maintain its defiant stance or face increased pressure from the U.S. administration.

Trump Is Back with His Cronies – He Wants to Occupy Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on February 4, where he made a series of remarks regarding the future of Gaza’s population. Speaking to reporters before the meeting, Trump reaffirmed his support for permanently resettling Gaza’s residents to locations where they would be free from violence. He stated that discussions on this matter were ongoing with Jordan, Egypt, and other regional states.

Welcoming Netanyahu, Trump stressed his desire to reach an agreement on “permanently resettling people in good homes where they can live happily, without fear of being shot or killed.”

“I see Gaza differently than others. I think they need to be given a nice, new, beautiful piece of land, find people willing to invest in it, and make it livable,” Trump said.

Trump’s statements immediately drew criticism. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri condemned the remarks, calling them a “recipe for chaos” in the Middle East.

Netanyahu’s visit to Washington marks a significant diplomatic moment, as he is the first foreign leader invited to the White House since Trump returned to office on January 20—symbolizing the strong ties between the U.S. and Israel. While the idea of relocating Gaza’s population is not new, Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu revealed a broader ambition. He openly suggested that the U.S. now intends to take control of Gaza.

When asked whether deploying U.S. troops to Gaza was under consideration, Trump responded, “We will do what is necessary.”

“I envision a long-term control scenario that would bring more stability to that part of the Middle East. I have been studying this issue carefully for months. I love Israel. I will be visiting there, as well as Gaza, Saudi Arabia, and other places throughout the Middle East,” he added.

After Putin, Trump Pressures Zelensky on Legitimacy

The question of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy has resurfaced after nine months. Keith Kellogg, appointed by Trump as a special representative for Ukraine, recently stated that the U.S. administration expects presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in Ukraine by the end of 2025.

“In many democracies, elections take place even during wartime. This is essential for maintaining democracy. The foundation of a stable democracy is allowing multiple candidates to participate,” Kellogg said.

According to Reuters sources, if a presidential election is held, the winner may be tasked with negotiating a long-term agreement with Moscow. However, Ukrainian officials clarified that the Trump administration has yet to make a formal request for elections in Kyiv.

It is worth noting that in 2023 and 2024, the Biden administration also raised the issue of elections with Ukrainian officials, but Kyiv rejected the idea, arguing that elections under current wartime conditions could create divisions among the country’s leadership and expose Ukraine to Russian influence campaigns.

Now, with Trump back in office, Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, further complicating potential negotiations. Putin recently claimed in an interview with Pavel Zarubin that “Zelensky’s legitimacy is zero, and he cannot participate in negotiations.” Following this statement, Kellogg’s remarks appeared to align with Putin’s position, further fueling speculation about Ukraine’s political future.

Debates over Zelensky’s legitimacy have persisted since May 2023. One of the earliest voices raising concerns was Putin himself, who has been elected five times and has ruled Russia for 25 years. Zelensky assumed office on May 20, 2019, and given Ukraine’s five-year presidential term, his mandate officially expired on May 20, 2024. Elections were initially scheduled for March 2024 but were postponed due to ongoing hostilities.

Putin has cited the Ukrainian Constitution to support his claims, emphasizing legal interpretations regarding the extension of government powers without elections.

“We need to analyze what is written in Ukraine’s Constitution—what government bodies can be extended without elections and which ones cannot. This is a matter of legal analysis within Ukraine’s political and legal system,” Putin stated during a press conference in Tashkent.

Jolani Gains Influence

Following the historic visit of Qatari Emir Tamim to Syria, marking the first visit by a foreign leader, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa embarked on his initial diplomatic trips. On February 2, he made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, where he was received by Saudi officials alongside Foreign Minister Shaibani. During his stay in Riyadh, he met with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss strengthening bilateral ties and regional issues. According to a statement from al-Sharaa, their discussions focused on humanitarian and economic cooperation, along with broader plans in energy, technology, education, and healthcare. Saudi media reports indicate that lifting international sanctions against Syria was also on the agenda. While in Saudi Arabia, al-Sharaa performed the Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca on February 3.

On February 4, the Syrian president traveled to Turkey, where he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. The two leaders discussed the importance of international efforts to remove Israel from the buffer zone in southern Syria and ensure compliance with the 1974 agreement. Expressing gratitude, al-Sharaa acknowledged Turkey's role in hosting millions of Syrian refugees during the years of conflict.

“The Syrian people will never forget the Turkish state's historical support, which opened its doors to millions of refugees. This solidarity was further strengthened in recent years when Syrian and Turkish blood was mixed in the struggle for freedom,” he stated.

Al-Sharaa emphasized that Turkey's assistance in the political and economic stabilization of the new Syrian administration is crucial for the country’s independence and security. He also highlighted the deep-rooted historical ties between Syria and Turkey, which have endured despite challenges. Reports before the meeting suggested that both sides were considering a defense pact, potentially allowing Turkey to establish military bases and train Syrian forces. Sources from the Syrian security sector claimed that Turkey was preparing to deploy air defense systems and air bases in Syria, particularly in Tiyas and Palmyra, both located in Homs province. However, no formal agreement was signed.

Preliminary Findings on the Embraer 190 Crash

Investigators analyzing the crash of the Azerbaijani Embraer 190 aircraft in Kazakhstan on December 25, 2024, have submitted the plane’s black boxes to Brazil for examination. Experts have begun evaluating the data, while the investigation—widely seen as a source of diplomatic tension between Baku and Moscow—has also involved an official apology from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. The probe includes representatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia, with additional support from Brazil. According to Kazakh Deputy Minister of Transport Talgat Lastayev, preliminary findings were expected within 30 days, following international aviation standards. This week, key details from the investigation were leaked to the media.

A report by the Kazakh Ministry of Transport, summarizing the initial findings, confirmed that the main sources of fire on the aircraft were the right wing, the nose, the central fuselage, and the left wing. Investigators identified multiple puncture marks of different sizes and shapes on the tail section, vertical stabilizer, and rudder. Similar damage was also found on the left engine and wing, with some holes reportedly having square shapes.

Under international aviation regulations, an initial factual report must be shared with relevant parties within 30 days. The joint Kazakh-Azerbaijani investigation commission, which compiled this report, confirmed several key points: The Embraer 190-100 IGV aircraft, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, was in airworthy condition at the time of takeoff for its scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny. Both engines were functioning properly before the incident. The aircraft lost GPS signals while in Russian airspace, including over Grozny airport. Due to poor weather, the crew aborted a second landing attempt in Grozny and opted to return to Baku. During this time, two unexplained noises were recorded on the cockpit voice recorder within a 24-second interval.

Photographs and videos documented multiple penetrations and impact marks on the aircraft’s fuselage, which investigators attributed to external objects. Notably, the report ruled out a bird strike or an internal oxygen tank explosion as potential causes. According to the Chicago Convention, a final report determining the definitive cause of the crash must be prepared within a year. Work on this final assessment has already begun, with Kazakhstan and other involved countries collaborating on the analysis.

However, additional, unofficial information is circulating on social media. A Reuters report, citing an Azerbaijani government source, claims that the Embraer 190 was shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense missile system.