Uzbeks deported to Panama, Hamas renews agreement, Munich conference without Putin. Weekly analysis  

The agreement between Hamas and Israel, expected for more than a year, is about to be canceled, and the situation in Gaza is once again off track.  

The US has deported illegal Asian immigrants to Panama. It is said that there are Uzbeks among them. Iran has already expressed its protest to the US about this situation.  

Practical steps are being taken in Munich, Germany, to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All parties are gathered here, except for Russia, of course.  

Hamas in a bind  

After the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, a five-round prisoner exchange took place between the two. However, Hamas announced this week that the exchange of prisoners and captives was suspended indefinitely, saying that the Israeli side had not fulfilled its obligations under the agreement. The next exchange was scheduled for February 15.  Hamas's decision prompted a sharp and threatening reaction from US President Donald Trump. Israeli Defense Minister Katz also called Hamas's decision a "complete violation" of the ceasefire agreement and said it had put the IDF forces in the Gaza Strip on full combat alert. However, Hamas initially rejected Trump's threatening demand. The movement's spokesman, Sami Abu Zuhri, said that adhering to the ceasefire agreement signed with Israel in January was the only way to guarantee the release of the hostages. He also added that threatening rhetoric was inappropriate in the current situation and that such actions would further complicate the situation. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's office also repeated Trump's threat to Hamas. The Times of Israel, citing the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, reported that if the next exchange is not carried out on time, the Jewish state will resume hostilities in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu also said that if Hamas did not return the Israeli hostages by noon on February 15, the ceasefire would be lifted, and Israel would resume heavy fighting until Hamas was completely defeated. His adviser, Dmitry Gendelman, reported that the Israeli army was massing its forces inside and along the Gaza Strip's borders.  

Shortly after, news broke that Hamas would continue to release the hostages in accordance with the established procedure. It is reported that after the talks in Cairo, the Palestinian group announced that the obstacles had been removed. The reports of Egypt and Qatar, which are considered mediators, also stated that the gaps had been closed. The Israeli government did not comment on these reports. In addition, Israel added that it was waiting for Hamas to provide a list of three hostages to be released on February 15. The Russian publication "RosBusinessConsulting" reported that Russian citizen Alexander Trufanov was among the prisoners to be released by Hamas on February 15.  

Thus, the planned prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel, which was scheduled to take place in real time at the time of this video recording, remains highly likely. It is highly likely that the parties will carry it out by the end of the day. Five rounds of exchanges have been held so far under the agreement, which was agreed on January 16 and entered into force on January 19. The fifth round of prisoner exchanges was completed on February 8. It saw the release of three Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of 183 Palestinian prisoners. In total, Hamas has so far released 16 Israelis. It is possible that another 17 Israeli prisoners are being held by the movement. However, Israel does not believe this. Eight of the 17 people currently believed to be under Hamas control in the Jewish state are believed to have already died. That is, it can be seen that Israel is currently waiting for the release of only nine people.  

Uzbeks deported to Panama  

According to the New York Times, the United States is deporting Uzbek immigrants who are in the country illegally to Panama. It is reported that an American military flight deported Asian immigrants who were in US immigration detention to Panama, including citizens of Uzbekistan. In addition to citizens of Uzbekistan, these illegal immigrants included adults and families with children, totaling 119 people from Afghanistan, China, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam, and Iran. Panama's Foreign Ministry confirmed that it had accepted the first flight that will allow the deportation of non-Panamanians to the country under an agreement with the Trump administration. The ministry added that the deportation costs will be covered by the United States under the agreement. The Trump administration has promoted more deportation agreements, but it is not known how many more agreements will be signed.  

In this regard, Iran has already responded to the discriminatory treatment of its citizens. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghai condemned the US government's "unfair and discriminatory" treatment of immigrants, including Iranian citizens, calling it groundless and a violation of human rights. He stressed that the Iranian Foreign Ministry will take all necessary measures to protect the rights of Iranian citizens abroad in accordance with its legal obligations.  

For information, it is also worth noting that from October 2023 to May 2024, a total of 57,200 illegal immigrants were apprehended at the southern border of the US. More than 2,900 of them were from Uzbekistan. Usually, their journey to the US consisted of a fixed algorithm in a sequence of countries such as Turkey, Spain, Bolivia, Colombia, and finally Mexico. Turning to the issue of illegal immigrants in the United States, it can be seen that in recent years, Uzbeks have been in a much higher position in this indicator. In particular, in October 2023, Uzbek citizens ranked third on the list of those who attempted to illegally enter the southern border of the United States. In addition, in March last year, Senator Steve Daines announced that 40 thousand people from Central Asian countries were waiting for asylum in the United States. It was said that almost half of those 40 thousand immigrants, or more precisely 17 thousand, were citizens of Uzbekistan.  

First steps taken in Munich for peace

One of the first major steps towards ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been taken at the Munich Security Conference, which is currently underway from February 14 to 16. This annual conference, held since 1963 and primarily focused on security issues, has made the cessation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine its main topic this year. The event gathers heads of state, lower-ranking politicians and diplomats, military personnel, business leaders, non-governmental organizations, and experts to discuss global security challenges in both public sessions and behind-the-scenes meetings. Since 2022, Russia has not attended this conference, and it was confirmed that no official invitation was extended to Russian representatives this year either. This marks the second major political event aimed at stopping the invasion without Russia's participation, following last summer's peace summit in Switzerland.  Despite this, speculation continues about potential discussions involving Russia. On February 13, former US President Donald Trump announced a planned meeting between representatives of the US, Ukraine, and Russia within the Munich Conference framework. However, Christoph Heusgen, the head of the Munich Security Conference, clarified that Russian representatives had not been accredited by the conference organizers, although he did not rule out the possibility of unexpected meetings. As the conference continues, there remains a chance for unplanned diplomatic encounters.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a central figure at the conference, faced varied reactions from the European Union and NATO. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Zelensky and pledged to expedite efforts towards Ukraine's EU membership. However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte clarified that Ukraine had not been promised NATO membership and that this would not be part of any potential peace agreement. He emphasized that NATO's priority is ensuring Ukraine is in a strong position before any peace talks commence.  

“We need to ensure that Ukraine is in a good position ahead of the talks in which it will participate. This will be part of the peace deal. We are discussing here the best way to guarantee a stable and lasting peace. But Ukraine was never promised that NATO membership would be part of the deal,” Rutte stated at the conference.  

Speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky stated that if Ukraine does not join NATO, it will require a one-and-a-half million-strong army and NATO weapons for protection. He expressed readiness for peace talks at any time, emphasizing his openness to discussing various ways to end Russian military aggression, including deploying peacekeeping forces or obtaining security guarantees.  

Zelensky also clarified that he was unaware of any potential meetings involving Russian representatives in Munich. He emphasized that if such talks occur, they would first involve discussions with US and European leaders before engaging with Russian officials. Additionally, he firmly stated that any negotiations would exclude discussions on surrendering territories occupied by Russia, emphasizing that only the Ukrainian people could decide on border changes. He revealed that plans for deploying foreign troops to ensure peace on Ukrainian territory are already in progress, although details on potential troop deployment locations will remain confidential for now. Regarding peace negotiations, Zelensky outlined two key conditions: first, Ukraine's position must be aligned with the US President and European leaders; second, Russian President Vladimir Putin must personally participate in any talks on behalf of Russia.  

Ukraine's wealth is going to the US

On the first day of the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with several high-ranking US officials, including Vice President James David Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg. Kellogg, who was assigned by former President Donald Trump to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine within 100 days, finally met with one of the key parties involved. During his visit, he also met with Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office. This meeting attracted significant attention due to Yermak's remarks and warnings to Kellogg. Yermak cautioned that "Putin never plays by the rules" and urged him not to be deceived by Russia's actions.

"Russians have always mocked the West, but they have always copied it. Their current 'turn to the East' is not a deep cultural shift, but a tactical move to achieve their own goals. Russians only respect power and despise those who do not use it. Russia will stop not when it promises, but when it has to," Yermak stated.  

The two men also discussed preparations for high-level meetings, as well as Kellogg’s planned visit to Ukraine. Prior to the Munich conference, reports suggested that Kellogg might come to Germany with Trump's peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, but he later denied these rumors.  

Although the peace plan was not introduced at the conference, another significant matter was discussed. According to Voice of America, Ukraine presented proposals for a bilateral agreement with the United States regarding the supply of mineral resources. During a meeting in Munich with a bipartisan group of US senators, Zelensky discussed the potential agreement focused on the extraction of Ukraine’s valuable natural resources. Zelensky confirmed that the proposals were made "in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine" and emphasized that Ukraine was open to American investment in its natural resources within the framework of US security guarantees. This deal would include critical rare earth minerals that have long been of interest to the United States, particularly deposits of titanium, uranium, and lithium, which are valued at an estimated $500 billion. These resources, previously mentioned by Trump as essential, could play a significant role in the geopolitical landscape and strengthen Ukraine's relationship with the US.

US and Germany “fight”

At the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President James David Vance sharply criticized European policies regarding migration, freedom of speech, and security, particularly targeting Germany. His comments came in the wake of nationalist parties in the Bundestag proposing a migration policy similar to that of the US, which faced opposition from a coalition of other parties.  

Vance expressed his concern about internal threats to Europe, stating, “The threat that worries me most for Europe is not Russia or China or any other external actor. I am worried about the threat coming from within, about Europe retreating from the most important values that it shares with the US.”  

He also cautioned against creating “a security wall” and encouraged Europe to embrace the future with confidence. In an interview with "The Wall Street Journal", Vance revealed his intention to urge German politicians in Munich to work with all political parties, including the ultra-nationalist Alternative for Germany party. This raised the question of which party he was referring to, as the Alternative for Germany is a far-right party within the Bundestag. Vance's comments indicate that right-wing factions, such as those aligned with former President Trump, continue to influence US foreign policy.  

In response to Vance's statements, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit urged the US Vice President to “not interfere in the internal affairs of a friendly country without fully understanding its political discussions.” Meanwhile, Alice Weidel, the Alternative for Germany’s candidate for Chancellor, praised Vance's speech on social media, calling it “excellent.”  

“If I understand him correctly, he is equating conditions in certain parts of Europe to those of authoritarian regimes. This is unacceptable, and it does not reflect the Europe or the democracy I live in,” Pistorius stated.

Pistorius defended European democracy, asserting that in Germany, “any opinion can be expressed,” which allows even extremist parties like Alternative for Germany to campaign openly. He pointed out that Alice Weidel had recently participated in a televised speech alongside other candidates for the chancellor position. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier also weighed in, accusing the Trump administration of being rude and undermining established norms of cooperation and trust. He emphasized the importance of maintaining rules in international relations, warning against the worldview promoted by the Trump administration.

 “The absence of rules should not become the principle for reorganizing the world. It is not a business model, and it is not a playground for destruction,” Steinmeier stated.