Weekend: Istanbul negotiations, ICC turmoil, Tartus reclaimed by UAE

In reality, entirely different individuals participated in the talks between Putin and Zelensky, which had been anticipated for May 15. These marked the first negotiations organized after a three-year hiatus. The two sides had previously sat at the same table in Turkey in 2022, shortly after the start of the invasion. Three years later, they returned to the same venue. This meeting was again held in the Dolmabahçe Presidential Palace near the Bosphorus Strait. The negotiations took place behind closed doors and were moderated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. As mentioned earlier, Zelensky and Putin were expected to meet in this very palace. Consequently, Zelensky arrived in Turkey the day before. Meanwhile, Trump—located slightly farther away in the Persian Gulf—waited for Putin's arrival until the very last minute.

However, the Kremlin announced at the last moment that Putin would not attend and instead revealed the makeup of the delegation he had approved, which was of a relatively low profile. It included other political and military officials led by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to the Russian President and former Minister of Culture. The Ukrainian delegation was led by Defense Minister Rustam Umarov. Notably, Yuri Ushakov, another aide to the Russian President who would typically lead such talks, was absent. He emphasized that the Russian delegation would discuss political and technical issues in Istanbul. Medinsky, on the other hand, stated that he had sufficient authority to make necessary decisions. Since Putin did not come to Istanbul, Zelensky at least met with Erdogan before flying to the European Political Community summit in Albania. One of the most memorable moments came when journalists asked Zelensky if he had a message for Putin. He responded, “I am here and this is the clearest message.” Meanwhile, Trump continued amassing trillions of dollars in investments in the Middle East following Putin’s absence.

On May 16, the long-awaited direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place in Istanbul, Turkey, for the first time in three years. The meeting lasted about two hours. During the negotiations, the Russian delegation demanded the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from what it considers Russian territory. It also demanded Ukraine’s full withdrawal from four regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia. According to Ukrainian sources, Ukraine rejected these demands. In response, the Russian delegation threatened that in the future, the number of regions on their demand list could increase to five. Some sources suggest the fifth region may be Sumy or Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk). Simultaneously, the Ukrainian side rejected proposals to create a demilitarized security zone.

According to some unconfirmed reports, the talks occurred amidst intense information warfare and mutual accusations. The Ukrainian side expressed concern over being compared to the Istanbul talks of 2022, while Russia this time imposed even stricter conditions. Still, there were some positive developments. During the Istanbul negotiations, both delegations agreed to conduct a “000 for 1000 prisoner exchange “in the coming days.” This was announced by Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustam Umarov, who led their respective delegations. According to Umarov, a potential personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky was also discussed. He added that any upcoming talks with Russia “will be announced shortly.” Medinsky told reporters that the Russian side was “generally satisfied with the results of the meeting” and “ready to continue the contacts.” He added that Ukraine’s request for direct talks between the two presidents had been “taken into account.” Medinsky further noted that the sides had agreed to exchange detailed ceasefire proposals in preparation for future negotiations.

One of the most sensational aspects of the talks was reported by The Economist’s Oliver Carroll. According to Carroll’s source, Medinsky issued a stark warning to the Ukrainian delegation: “We don’t want war, but we are ready to fight for another year, two, three years—as long as it takes. We fought with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

For context, the "Great Northern War" took place between the Kingdom of Sweden and Russia from 1700 to 1721. That 21-year war ended with the Treaty of Nystad, which gave Russia access to the Baltic Sea. Victory in the Great Northern War played a pivotal role in Russia's transformation into an empire.

UAE Seizes Tartus Port from Russia

The new Syrian government has terminated a six-year-old contract with Russia for the development of the Tartus port—originally signed during the Assad era—and transferred control to Dubai Ports World (DP World), a UAE-based company. The new agreement is valued at $800 million. In 2019, Syria signed a contract with the Russian company Stroytransgaz to modernize the port’s infrastructure, with the firm expected to invest $500 million. However, in early 2025, Syria’s new administration officially revoked this deal. According to the SANA news agency, under a memorandum with DP World, the port's cargo capacity will be expanded, new industrial zones and a land-based cargo terminal will be developed, and the port will be transformed into an international trade hub.

It’s worth noting that the port of Tartus houses a Russian naval base. In 2017, Russia and Syria agreed on a 49-year lease allowing Russia to use the base free of charge. In light of these new developments, agreements on Russian military infrastructure may also be subject to review. For years, it was speculated that if Russia were ever to reduce its presence in Syria, the Tartus port would likely be the first facility to be relinquished.

Initial reports about Russia’s loss of control over Tartus emerged earlier this year. On January 21, the Syrian government canceled a deal granting Russia long-term military presence in the Mediterranean. The Tartus Regional Customs Department announced the termination of the investment agreement with the Russian company and declared that all port revenues would now benefit the Syrian state. Previously, income from the port had been divided differently. According to the prior deal between Assad’s regime and the Russian company, Russia was to receive 65 percent of the port's profits. After the termination, it was unclear who would take over operations—until now. That entity has been confirmed as DP World.

One Less Anti-Israel Advocate

Karim Khan, Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and one of the few figures actively opposing Israel’s alleged genocidal and inhumane actions in Gaza, has temporarily stepped down due to an ongoing investigation into sexual harassment allegations. These accusations were first brought forth last year, coinciding with his successful issuance of an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Since May 2024, Khan had been pursuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu, then-Israeli military leader Yoav Galant, and leaders of Hamas. A viral interview at the time revealed that Khan faced opposition and pressure, with claims that the ICC was “only meant for Putin and African dictators.”

Despite the pushback, Khan managed to secure an arrest warrant for Netanyahu by the end of 2024. Several powerful Western nations stated they respected the ICC’s ruling and would arrest Netanyahu if he entered their territory. However, despite ratifying the Rome Statute that underpins the ICC, many countries have also declared that they will not detain the Israeli Prime Minister. As of now, the arrest warrant has not hindered Netanyahu’s movements. Regarding the accusations against Khan, the 54-year-old prosecutor has faced longstanding allegations of sexual harassment. It remains unclear when the investigation will conclude. In the meantime, two ICC deputy prosecutors have assumed his duties. Human rights groups and some judicial officials had previously called for Khan to resign during the investigation, but he did not comply.

According to Reuters, Karim Khan will be on leave during the inquiry and strongly denies all allegations. This situation is unprecedented in the ICC’s history, with no clear process in place for a temporary replacement. The lack of protocol adds further uncertainty to the ICC, already under strain due to U.S. sanctions.

The U.S. imposed sanctions on the ICC after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli officials—measures that have accelerated the current crisis in international law. Notably, the ICC continues to investigate war crimes related to the Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. It was under Khan’s leadership that arrest warrants were issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, neither Russia nor Israel has ratified the Rome Statute and thus do not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction, denying all allegations. In addition, countries like Mongolia and Hungary, despite being parties to the Rome Statute, welcomed Putin and Netanyahu on their soil without consequence.