From triads to tactical missiles: who possesses nuclear weapons?

It has been 80 years since nuclear weapons were first used on Earth. Since then, these weapons have maintained global security through deterrence. According to the American military journal Military Watch Magazine (MWM), countries have been classified based on their secret arsenals and nuclear capabilities.

The number of states capable of delivering a nuclear strike is steadily increasing. While the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) only permits the United States, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom to possess nuclear warheads, today a total of 15 countries have at least limited nuclear strike capabilities. This group includes four countries that have not signed the treaty, as well as six countries participating in nuclear sharing agreements.

These states are preparing to use American or Russian nuclear warheads stored on their territories in the event of a large-scale conflict. Nuclear-armed countries can be divided into four categories based on the size, capability, and diversity of their arsenals and delivery systems. Below is an overview of the world’s nuclear arsenals.

The first tier: the United States, Russia, and China

These three countries possess a complete nuclear triad and can deliver intercontinental strikes. This means their nuclear weapons are deployed across land-based missile systems, strategic bombers, and submarines. Their arsenals include both tactical and strategic weapons. While China’s arsenal is roughly one-fifth the size of the U.S. and Russia’s, its nuclear doctrine is considered the most cautious and defensive in the world.

Russia has deployed the largest number of warheads, with a substantial arsenal of tactical ballistic missiles and intercontinental hypersonic systems. The United States is the only country to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on stealth fighters and bombers. At the same time, US intercontinental ballistic missiles are aging, with the main models dating back to the 1970s. In response, Russia has equipped its interceptors with the world’s only nuclear ’’air-to-air’’ missiles to counter US bombers.

The second tier: North Korea, India, Pakistan, Israel

These countries have developed nuclear weapons outside the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel achieved this largely with significant assistance from France. All of these states possess various delivery systems, but except for North Korea, all have confirmed the ability to deliver air-based strikes. North Korea and Israel are among the five countries with intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea’s arsenal is considered one of the strongest in the world, with its missile capabilities ranking second in diversity only after China. Pyongyang possesses submarine-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, hypersonic medium-range missiles, nuclear-capable underwater drones, and nuclear-armed destroyers. Among these four second-tier states, North Korea is the only country whose nuclear forces are primarily designed for intercontinental strikes. Pakistan remains the only country to deploy nuclear munitions for artillery systems, giving it the ability to carry out tactical-level strikes.

The third tier: Great Britain and France

These countries have limited nuclear capabilities, primarily relying on submarine-launched ballistic missiles. France maintains restricted tactical capabilities through its Rafale fighters, but their aging systems and lack of concealment are significant drawbacks. The United Kingdom is seeking to restore tactical capabilities through a nuclear-sharing agreement with the United States. Under this arrangement, its F-35A fighters could deploy American B61-12 bombs stationed on British territory. However, London does not possess an independent tactical nuclear force. Although both countries have strategic deterrent forces, the diversity of their delivery systems is very limited, and they face significant gaps in tactical capabilities.

The fourth tier: Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, Italy, and Belarus

The United States has signed nuclear-sharing agreements with Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, and Italy, with a similar agreement expected soon with the United Kingdom. These agreements effectively allow Washington to extend the deployment of nuclear weapons more widely. This practice is controversial, with some analysts arguing that it violates Articles I and II of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Participating countries can only use B61 nuclear bombs, which are air-deliverable. These bombs are deployed on F-16 or F-35A fighters, and in Germany, on the aging Tornado aircraft. In 2023, Belarus signed a nuclear-sharing agreement with Russia and deployed warheads on its Iskander-M missile systems. Belarus’s arsenal is expected to expand by the end of 2025 with medium-range Oreshnik hypersonic missiles and potentially nuclear-capable rocket artillery systems. However, the states participating in nuclear-sharing agreements do not have independent control over these arsenals; their use can be blocked by Washington or Moscow.