Historic turning point. How will the Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement affect regional geopolitics?

On September 17, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was welcomed in Riyadh with Saudi F-15 fighter jets, a red-carpet reception, and full royal protocol. Together with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, he signed a ’’Strategic mutual defense agreement.’’

Observers note that this marks a significant turning point in the nearly eighty-year alliance between the two countries.

The signing ceremony at the Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh was attended by high-ranking officials from Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s two holiest mosques, and Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world.

This agreement was signed at a highly critical moment. Over the past two years, regional politics have been dramatically reshaped by Israeli ’’aggression’’ the war in Gaza, strikes on neighboring states, and, most recently, last week’s attack on Doha, the capital of Qatar, right near Saudi Arabia’s borders.

The pact also comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan following a brief but intense clash in May. For four days, both countries targeted each other’s military bases, bringing South Asia’s nuclear neighbors to the brink of full-scale war.

According to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, the defense treaty with Saudi Arabia reflects both states’ ’’mutual commitment’’ to strengthening security and promoting regional peace. It further outlines joint measures against any act of aggression and cooperation to ensure collective security.

’’The agreement states: if any country commits aggression against one of the two states, it will be considered aggression against both,’’ the ministry’s statement said.

Asfandyar Mir, a researcher at the Stimson Center in Washington, described this deal as a ’’historic turning point’’ for both countries.

’’In the Soviet era, Pakistan had mutual defense treaties with the United States, but those collapsed in the 1970s. With China, although there is extensive defense cooperation, Pakistan still does not have a formal mutual defense agreement,’’ Mir told Al Jazeera.

According to Muhammad Faisal, a researcher at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, this agreement could serve as a model for Pakistan to establish bilateral defense cooperation with other key Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar.

’’In the short term, the deal strengthens and formalizes the ongoing multi-dimensional defense cooperation, while also opening the door to joint exercises, defense production, and the potential expansion of the Pakistani military contingent in Saudi Arabia,’’ Faisal said.

The historic relations and military cooperation

Saudi Arabia was among the first countries to recognize Pakistan after its independence in August 1947. In 1951, the two states signed a ’’Friendship treaty,’’ laying the foundation for strategic, political, military, and economic cooperation.

In the following years, Pakistani troops were deployed to Saudi Arabia on several occasions, while Saudi military personnel received training both at home and in Pakistan.

According to official data, since 1967, Pakistan has trained more than 8,000 Saudis. A treaty signed in 1982 further strengthened this cooperation, guaranteeing that ’’the Pakistan Armed Forces would provide military training in Saudi Arabia.’’

However, the latest agreement was concluded at a time when the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is undergoing sharp changes. Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza and strikes on neighboring countries have unsettled many Gulf states. Although Washington remains Israel’s closest ally, Arab states in the region still rely heavily on U.S. security guarantees.

Qatar, struck by Israel on September 9 for ’’sheltering Hamas leaders’’, also hosts the headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM).

By mid-2025, the United States had stationed between 40,000 and 50,000 troops across the Middle East, deployed at major bases and at least 19 outposts, including Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh.

Although Saudi officials noted that the agreement with Pakistan had been under development for at least a year, independent Washington-based analyst Sahar Khan stressed that the treaty’s text ’’raises many questions in the United States.’’

During the Biden administration (2021–2025), Pakistan was sanctioned at least seven times over allegations related to its ballistic missile program. US officials had expressed concern that Pakistani weapons could reach long distances and potentially carry nuclear warheads.

’’Pakistan has a trust deficit in Washington, and this agreement does not resolve it,’’ Khan said.

According to her, Pakistan is keen to emphasize that its nuclear and missile programs are directed toward India. At the same time, despite maintaining strong bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is unlikely to take part in Saudi wars, instead providing only the necessary support.

The situation in the region

In June of this year, Israel waged a 12-day war against Iran, striking its nuclear facilities as well as military and civilian leadership targets. The US bombers also took part, dropping massive ’’bunker-buster’’ bombs on Fordow, one of Iran’s key nuclear complexes.

Three months later, Israel carried out a strike in Doha on a building located in an area with embassies, supermarkets, and schools. The attack killed at least five Hamas members along with several security personnel.

The strike on Doha prompted an emergency gathering of Arab and Islamic states. The Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) announced the activation of joint defense mechanisms.

According to Faisal, the Saudi-Pakistan agreement should be viewed against the backdrop of these events.

’’These incidents heightened Gulf states’ security concerns and tested their reliance on the US as the final shield. As a result, Gulf countries increasingly see regional partners such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey as natural allies in strengthening their security,’’ he explained.

Khan, however, noted that while the treaty may appear linked to Israel’s recent strike on Qatar, ’’agreements of this kind are typically discussed over months, if not years.’’

The Indian issue

This defense pact will also be closely watched by Pakistan’s nuclear rival, India.

Relations between the two countries are at their lowest point in history and escalated further in April. In the Pahalgam attack, 26 civilians were killed, with India blaming Pakistan, an accusation Islamabad rejected.

Just days later, in May, the two countries engaged in a four-day clash, striking each other’s military bases with drones and missiles. This marked the most serious escalation in 30 years. On May 10, a ceasefire was declared following US President Donald Trump’s intervention.

’’We are aware of the signing of the agreement. We will examine its implications for our national security, as well as for regional and global stability. The government remains firmly committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring national security in all areas,’’ said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, at a briefing on September 18.

However, according to analyst Faisal, the agreement could rebalance Pakistan–Saudi relations. In recent years, this relationship has been largely defined by Saudi Arabia providing financial aid to an economically struggling Pakistan, while Riyadh has simultaneously developed closer ties with India.

’’Pakistan’s relative position has improved, and new opportunities have opened up to expand Pakistan–Saudi cooperation in bilateral defense and regional security matters,’’ the analyst said.

In the past decade, as Pakistan’s economy has struggled and become increasingly dependent on Saudi aid, India has steadily deepened its relations with Riyadh. In April of this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Saudi Arabia for the third time in ten years.

According to Mir, the new agreement shows that Saudi Arabia still values its ties with Pakistan and demonstrates that, despite India’s efforts to distance countries from Islamabad, Pakistan is not isolated within its broader neighborhood.

’’At a time when Pakistan faces the threat of Indian military action, it has secured a strong collective defense pact with Saudi Arabia. This will significantly complicate future India–Pakistan relations,’’ he said.

Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella?

Saudi Arabia has long shown interest in acquiring civilian nuclear technology to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

In January this year, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud reiterated that Riyadh is ready to enrich and sell uranium, a key component for nuclear programs. However, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to develop nuclear weapons.

American journalist Bob Woodward, in his 2024 book ’’War’’, recounts that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud told US Senator Lindsey Graham that the kingdom intended to enrich uranium for energy purposes only. When Graham expressed concern about the possibility of an atomic bomb, Woodward reports the crown prince replied:

’’I don’t need uranium to make a bomb. I’ll just buy it from Pakistan.’’

Nevertheless, analyst Khan emphasized that certain ambiguities remain regarding the scope of the agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

’’It is worth noting that Pakistan has previously concluded defense agreements, but none of them have led to nuclear guarantees or the establishment of a nuclear umbrella. This agreement also contains no clauses pointing to a nuclear umbrella or an extended deterrence policy,’’ he said.

Mir cautioned that even the strongest alliances carry inherent risks.

’’This agreement raises questions about its coverage, or lack thereof, deterrence, resource allocation, operational aspects, and other issues, potentially shaping a new alliance policy. However, it does not diminish the political significance of the agreement. It is a major event for both countries,’’ he said.

Faisal agreed, noting that while the deal states that an aggression against one state is considered an aggression against the other, for now this is more of a political statement rather than a genuine alliance or a joint defense obligation.

’’Nonetheless, political and defense cooperation between the two sides will deepen, while the military capabilities of both countries will also be strengthened,’’ he added.