Syria without Assad: new power, new risks for Uzbeks?

The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, has sparked intense global debate, including discussions in Uzbekistan. Many view it as the end of a dictatorship and the beginning of peace in Syria. However, shortly afterward, internal strife erupted as "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), expected to lead the new government, faced resistance from other groups. The Syrian constitution and parliamentary activities were subsequently suspended.

Taking advantage of the chaos, Israel launched an airstrike on Damascus. So, is Syria truly at peace? What kind of organization is "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham?" What are its goals and objectives? Did the Syrians avoid the rain only to be caught in a hailstorm?

To shed light on these issues, QALAMPIR.UZ interviewed Farhod Karimov, an orientalist and political scientist, for his expert analysis of the latest developments in Syria.

According to Farhod Karimov, "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" is classified as a terrorist organization by numerous international organizations, as well as several regional governments. The group's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, remains a relatively young figure who has yet to establish a significant track record. Nonetheless, he is known to hold considerable influence within the group.

"When the Arab Spring began in 2011, it ended in tragedy in Syria, where a civil war broke out. By 2015-2016, the civil war had escalated into a full-scale conflict. Various factions within Syria established their strongholds, fueled by national, ethnic, and religious divisions," Karimov said.

At this stage, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad turned to Russia, Iran, and the United States for support, effectively surrendering his independent decision-making. Each of these countries had its demands and priorities. For example, Russia aimed to protect its geopolitical interests, while Iran sought influence in the region.

Military operations came to a halt in 2016, and by 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire agreement. This allowed Assad to maintain power over the regions he controlled. However, despite regaining control of these territories, Assad faced growing criticism due to the worsening social and economic conditions.

“Jobs were scarce, infrastructure was not restored, crime surged, and human and drug trafficking became rampant. Assad's efforts to maintain power led to brutal repression, with mass imprisonments and reports of torture involving detainees and their family members. Such actions severely eroded Assad's legitimacy in the eyes of the people,” Karimov noted.

The collapse of trust in Assad provided a fertile ground for radical groups to emerge. Around this time, the Islamic State (ISIS) was still active. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda, which had previously operated in Iraq, sent a representative to Syria to strengthen its presence. That representative was none other than Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

"Initially, Jolani worked closely with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, even establishing ties with ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. However, after gaining enough influence, he severed ties with both organizations. Instead, Jolani established his power base in Idlib, Syria," Karimov said.

By consolidating power in Idlib, Jolani attracted support from regional actors and neighboring countries. Over four years, HTS absorbed other smaller groups, becoming a formidable force. Idlib became the epicenter of his operations, and many fighters and their families settled there.

The involvement of external powers significantly impacted Assad's ability to maintain control. The ongoing war in Ukraine drew Russia’s attention away from Syria, while Iran became preoccupied with its security challenges. Without strong backing from its traditional allies, Assad's grip on power weakened.

Taking advantage of this situation, HTS launched an offensive from Idlib on December 8, 2024, targeting Aleppo — Syria's economic hub and a vital transport corridor. Aleppo’s strategic significance lies in its role as a trade route connecting Syria to Turkey and beyond. HTS forces encountered little resistance in Aleppo, with many locals reportedly disillusioned with Assad and hoping for change.

“The population was exhausted from years of suffering under Assad's rule. Many believed that a change of power could improve their lives, so HTS met little resistance as it entered Aleppo,” said Karimov.

While HTS was focused on capturing Aleppo, Israel launched airstrikes on Damascus. The strikes were interpreted as a strategic move by Israel to weaken Assad's allies, particularly Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups.

"The relationship between Syria and Israel has always been strained. Syria’s support for groups like Hezbollah made it a target for Israel. In this case, Israel's strikes on Damascus were likely intended to exploit Syria’s moment of vulnerability, especially as Assad's forces were being overrun by HTS," Karimov explained.

For years, many Uzbeks have traveled to Syria, often drawn by radical ideologies or recruited by extremist groups. The ongoing instability raises concerns that these recruitment channels may be reactivated, especially if HTS, an organization classified as a terrorist group, seizes full control.

Farhod Karimov warns that the new developments in Syria might reignite these recruitment networks. As HTS gains power and consolidates control, it could strengthen its outreach to Central Asia, including Uzbekistan.

“The rise of HTS poses new risks for Uzbeks. It is a terrorist organization with global ambitions. If it establishes control over Syria, it will undoubtedly seek to expand its influence beyond Syria's borders, including in Central Asia,” Karimov stated.

Who is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani?

Jolani is a key figure in HTS, but his early career was closely tied to Al-Qaeda. He was appointed as Al-Qaeda's representative in Syria and initially collaborated with ISIS. However, as his ambitions grew, Jolani distanced himself from both groups and declared independence.

His leadership of HTS has been marked by attempts to present the group as a political movement rather than a terrorist organization. For example, HTS has engaged in limited talks with Turkey and other regional powers, aiming to be recognized as a legitimate governing authority in Syria.

“Jolani is a cunning strategist. He understands the importance of perception, which is why he has tried to rebrand HTS as a legitimate government force. However, international bodies and regional powers still consider it a terrorist organization,” Karimov said.

The overthrow of Assad and the rise of HTS mark a new chapter in Syria's ongoing crisis. While some hope for peace, others fear the return of extremist rule. For Uzbeks, the situation raises critical questions about security. Will radical groups target Uzbek citizens for recruitment again? Will Uzbeks refrain from traveling to Syria now that HTS is in power?

Farhod Karimov believes the risks are real, especially as HTS attempts to expand its influence. The organization's rise in Syria could reignite recruitment efforts targeting Uzbeks and other Central Asians. This is a key issue that authorities and communities in Uzbekistan must monitor closely.

For more detailed analysis and expert commentary, watch the full interview on QALAMPIR.UZ's YouTube channel.