The world is on the verge of “Cold War 2"

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, along with the possibility of US involvement, is threatening global stability. In reality, however, world peace was already under serious threat before this crisis. The world had already entered a new nuclear arms race. On June 16, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that nuclear-armed states are expanding their arsenals and that existing arms control agreements are steadily losing their force.

This situation signals that the era of nuclear disarmament, which began at the end of the Cold War in the 1980s, has come to an end. As of January 2025, there were an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide, with approximately 9,614 stored for military use and kept in a state of readiness.

Around 2,100 warheads are currently mounted on ballistic missiles and kept on high alert, with almost all belonging to the United States and Russia. According to the institute’s analysts, as international tensions rise, the world’s nine nuclear powers — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — intend to further expand their stockpiles. This trend raises the risk of future conflicts. One of the root causes of the current war between Israel and Iran is precisely the threat posed by nuclear weapons.

We begin QALAMPIR.UZ’s Midweek program with an overview of the six-day Israeli-Iranian war and other key global developments up to midweek.

Six-day war

Israel has clashed with Arab states numerous times in the past and has won nearly every conflict. In 1967, for example, Israel defeated a coalition of four Arab states in just six days. Now, the country has completed six days of war with Iran and is on the verge of entering the seventh. Each day’s clashes have so far been initiated by Israel. Recent developments have shown that the Persians, who once established the most powerful empire in Middle Eastern history, are not like the Arab coalitions Israel has faced before. When Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the first airstrikes on Iran on June 13, he may have overlooked the fact that Iran endured the Iraqi invasion led by Saddam Hussein’s elite army for nine years and has survived nearly forty years of severe Western sanctions. Today, Iranian strikes have turned many areas of Israel’s major cities into scenes resembling Gaza.

Just as Israel once sought global support to overthrow Iraq’s government at the start of this century, it is now pressing the White House for the same backing against Iran. This has quickly shifted the US president’s rhetoric, raising the possibility of direct American military action and decreasing hopes for negotiations. However, the president has denied reports that negotiations have been completely abandoned. Earlier, he demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, to which the Ayatollah responded that Iran would never capitulate. The US president also claimed to know the Supreme Leader’s hiding place, and soon after, Israeli channels reported that the bunker where he was believed to be hiding had been struck. Earlier reports suggested that Khamenei had taken refuge in a bunker in Tehran’s Lavizan district just hours after the initial Israeli strikes on June 13. The key question now is whether the United States will directly join the war or continue to act indirectly. According to some sources, the next 48 hours could be decisive — and that time is quickly running out. Trump announced that Iran’s airspace was under full control, and shortly afterward, Iran claimed it was controlling Israeli airspace in return. This battle for dominance has spilled into the media, with both sides presenting evidence of their success. Israeli fighter jets have penetrated deep into Iranian territory in recent days, while Iranian missiles have overwhelmed Israel’s renowned air defense systems. Reports suggest that Israel’s missile reserves are running low due to these covert Iranian strikes, and chaos and casualties are mounting daily. The Israeli government is reportedly cracking down on people posting online about the aftermath of the attacks. Meanwhile, Iran has imposed a nationwide internet blackout.

World leaders are in constant communication, seeking ways to stop the war. Turkish President Erdogan, US President Trump, and Russian President Putin have held extensive talks on the issue in recent days. Putin urged Trump not to escalate the conflict and offered to mediate, but Trump rejected the offer and gave Netanyahu the green light to continue operations. Additional US forces are expected to arrive in the region by the end of the week. However, Iran is not facing Israel alone. Twenty Muslim-majority countries have issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran. The foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Pakistan, Bahrain, Brunei, Turkey, Chad, Gambia, Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, and Mauritania denounced Israel’s aggression since the morning of June 13, calling it a blatant violation of the UN Charter and international law. Meanwhile, the Telegraph has reported that China has sent at least three Boeing 747 transport planes to Iran. It is believed the aircraft carried weapons and military equipment needed for Iran’s war effort. This theory is supported by the timing: the first plane reportedly departed for Iran the day after Israel began its military operation, with two more flights following shortly after. The planes reportedly flew over northern China, crossed Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, then disappeared from radar as they approached Iranian airspace. They were originally scheduled to land in Luxembourg, but none entered European airspace.

This claim by the Telegraph appears credible, given widespread speculation that one aim of these attacks on Iran is to artificially raise oil prices and weaken China’s oil-dependent economy. In this context, China has a clear interest in backing Iran. Additionally, reports indicate that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently labeled Israel a terrorist state and put his military on alert in a show of support for Iran. Pakistan has also officially declared its alignment with Iran.

Russia’s neighbors preparing for war

With tensions in the Middle East at their peak, concerns are growing that Russia may not limit its aggression to Ukraine but could also threaten the rest of Eastern Europe. Moscow has already escalated its attacks on Ukraine. On the night of June 17, dozens of buildings and other sites across Kyiv were targeted, including residential complexes, schools, and key infrastructure. One missile struck a nine-story residential building in the Solomianskyi district. So far, 21 bodies have been pulled from the rubble, and search operations continue. The total number of casualties in Kyiv has approached 30, with at least 134 people injured. Authorities declared June 18 a day of mourning in the capital. The scale and horror of the attack were underscored by President Zelensky’s early departure from the G7 summit. Russia is exploiting the world’s focus on the Middle East. Had this attack occurred before the outbreak of the Iran-Israel war, it could have strained relations between Trump and Putin — but the current situation is entirely different.

Against this backdrop, European countries bordering Russia are bracing for the possibility of conflict on their own soil. The world’s focus on the Middle East has heightened the perceived risk of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia are all stepping up preparations for a possible military clash. Lithuania, in particular, is planning for worst-case scenarios, including a potential attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Officials note that the threat of conflict has grown sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The country’s military, police, fire services, hospitals, and medical workers are undergoing training on how to operate in emergencies. Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics is building underground infrastructure, shelters, helipads, and autonomous systems designed to function even during power or water outages.

In Estonia, plans are underway to equip ambulance crews with bulletproof vests and satellite phones in case conventional communications fail. Authorities are also considering developing an independent internet network if needed. Drawing lessons from Ukraine’s experience, Estonia is installing power generators throughout its healthcare system. Many hospitals in Eastern Europe are remnants of the Soviet era and are considered especially vulnerable in times of conflict. Estonia is also acquiring mobile medical units — temporary medical facilities that can be deployed quickly in emergencies. The country is strengthening its overall preparedness, ensuring that hospitals, ambulance teams, and medical staff are ready to switch to “crisis mode” to handle surges in patients and to treat wartime injuries such as blast wounds, gunshots, burns, amputations, and severe spinal and brain trauma.

Durov and CNN praise Uzbekistan

Telegram founder Pavel Durov, in an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson, spoke warmly about his visit to Uzbekistan last year, saying he was very impressed by the experience. Although the interview was published on Carlson’s YouTube channel nine days ago, it has only recently attracted attention for Durov’s mention of Uzbekistan. While discussing his arrest in France, Durov also recalled his time in Uzbekistan. Interestingly, it was Tucker Carlson who first brought up the country during the conversation, describing Uzbekistan as safe — contrary to stereotypes about former Soviet republics. He noted that although he had never visited Uzbekistan himself, he had not heard a single negative remark about the country. In response, Durov confirmed that he had spent time in Uzbekistan last summer and was pleased with his trip. He even compared the country’s approach to human rights favorably with that of Britain and France.

“I didn’t even know this fact (that people are not afraid of Uzbekistan). But that’s exactly the point. Some countries, which we were raised to see as primitive or ruled by the whims of monarchs, later turn out to be quite normal for you, me, or any ordinary person who believes in human rights. But France or Great Britain is another matter,” Carlson concluded.

Positive remarks about Uzbekistan have not come from Durov alone in recent weeks. Well-known international analyst Richard Quest has also praised the country, highlighting its efforts to maintain geopolitical balance and foster good relations with all partners. He described Uzbekistan’s foreign policy as “not against anyone, but friends with everyone.” As an example, Quest pointed out that despite skepticism among some Uzbeks about Chinese companies, the two nations have developed ties that now amount to a strategic partnership. He also noted that Registan Square in Samarkand serves as a symbol of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy — a place where ideas and trade intersected during the Silk Road era and which today reflects the country’s commitment to global friendship and attracting investment from diverse sources.

Central Asia: “Forever friends” with China

On June 17, the second “Central Asia–China” summit was held, resulting in the signing of the Astana Declaration and an agreement on eternal good-neighborliness, friendship, and cooperation among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China.

The event, chaired by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, was attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, and Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, who has traditionally remained distant from regional integration projects. At the summit’s conclusion, the leaders signed 12 additional documents, bringing the total to 14. Alongside the Astana Declaration and the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, several key memorandums were adopted: on cooperation between the industrial ministries of the CIS countries and China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology; on deepening cooperation for seamless trade; on strengthening investment collaboration in “green minerals”; on high-speed railway development; on easing mutual travel for citizens; and on a joint program of cultural and humanitarian events for 2025–2026, among others. During the summit, President Mirziyoyev and President Xi held bilateral talks. They focused on expanding cooperation in poverty alleviation and emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of the strategic China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Both sides also expressed interest in boosting exchanges in personnel training and Chinese language education. Notably, it was announced that a protocol concluding bilateral negotiations on Uzbekistan’s accession to the WTO had been signed in the presence of both leaders. President Mirziyoyev also raised the issue of Afghanistan during the summit’s general session, proposing the establishment of a high-level group to address Afghan issues within the “Central Asia–China” framework. He stressed that China and Central Asian countries have ample capacity to contribute to Afghanistan’s reconstruction and its integration into the region.

“We are seriously concerned about the decline in the international community’s attention to Afghanistan, which is not only our neighbor but an integral part of our shared historical, cultural, and economic space. In this regard, I propose forming a high-level group to address these issues within our framework and to hold its first meeting in the border city of Termez with representatives from Afghanistan,” said Mirziyoyev.

In a gesture of symbolic diplomacy, President Tokayev gifted China 1,500 saigas for resettlement in western China, aiming to help restore the population of this rare and ancient animal. President Xi thanked Tokayev for the gesture, noting China’s plans to revive the species. Tokayev also congratulated Xi on his birthday, marking the significance of his visit to Kazakhstan.

China announced it would provide 1.5 billion yuan (approximately \$210 million) in grants to all Central Asian countries. According to Xi, the funds will support social and infrastructure projects aimed at improving living standards and fostering independent development in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

“This year, we are ready to allocate 1.5 billion yuan in grants to support key projects that enhance people’s well-being in the five countries and promote their self-reliant development,” Xi said.

China also pledged 3,000 educational scholarships for the next two years, giving citizens of the region the opportunity to study various disciplines free of charge — an effort expected to build a skilled workforce and boost educational ties. For context, the first summit under the “Central Asia–China” framework was held in Xi’an, China, in May 2023. At that time, China pledged 26 billion yuan in aid and investments for initiatives such as enhancing trade, renewing investment agreements, and constructing the “Central Asia–China” gas pipeline. To date, trade between China and Central Asia has reached \$95 billion. According to Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Jumangarin, one priority is the development of e-commerce, which will accelerate the flow of goods and services. For Uzbekistan specifically, trade ties with Beijing continue to grow steadily. China remains one of Uzbekistan’s two largest trading partners, alongside Russia. In 2024, trade turnover reached \$14 billion, and the investment project portfolio now exceeds \$60 billion.