Central Asia delivers a blow to Turkish diplomacy – political scientist

Cihad Yaycı, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul Topkapi University, has described the joint declaration signed between the European Union and five Central Asian countries—including four members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and Tajikistan—as a major blow to Turkish diplomacy. Speaking in an interview with Turkish broadcaster Haber Global, Yaycı emphasized that the development undermines decades of Turkish foreign policy efforts, particularly concerning the recognition of Northern Cyprus.

According to Yaycı, international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) remains a central issue in Ankara’s foreign policy. He believes President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will demand clear answers from diplomats and relevant officials involved in the process.

“Some are trying to downplay the current situation by claiming it won’t impact Turkey’s foreign policy. This is either an attempt to hide the truth or a result of ignorance. Four of the five countries involved in this declaration are members of the Organization of Turkic States, while Tajikistan hosts a significant ethnic Turk population. Turkey maintains strong relations with all of them. For 35 years—since the collapse of the USSR—these nations have refrained from recognizing Southern Cyprus, largely due to Turkish diplomatic efforts. What happened now is a blow to our prestige and 35 years of strategic work,” he said.

Yaycı underlined that President Erdoğan has consistently pushed for broader international recognition of Northern Cyprus and reiterated his stance at global platforms, including the United Nations. He also reminded that in 2022, Northern Cyprus was granted observer status in the Organization of Turkic States.

“Given all these diplomatic efforts, this outcome should never have occurred. I believe President Erdoğan will hold accountable those diplomats and officials who failed to prevent this,” he added.

Yaycı pointed out that the four OTS member states supported United Nations Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984), which define Northern Cyprus as an occupied territory and call for non-recognition.

“This raises the question: What role does Northern Cyprus now play within the Turkic States Organization?” he asked.

The political scientist also brought attention to promises made by the European Union during the recent summit in Samarkand, where it pledged €12 billion in investment to Central Asia, primarily targeting the development of the Middle Corridor.

“Turkey is a core part of the Middle Corridor project. If the issue is financing, then this money isn’t direct aid—it’s for project development. Besides, do Central Asian countries really need financial assistance? Nations like Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are rich in natural gas and oil. And if money was the issue, why didn’t Azerbaijan sign the declaration? Why wasn’t it part of this agreement?” he said.

The first-ever Central Asia–European Union summit was held on April 3–4, bringing together leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and top EU officials, including European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso.

Following the summit, the parties issued a joint statement emphasizing respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states in international and regional forums. The declaration reaffirmed their commitment to UN Security Council Resolutions 541 and 550, stressing that regional cooperation must align with international law and these principles.

"Turkmenistan, in particular, noted its commitment to international obligations in line with its policy of permanent neutrality,” the statement said.

The resolutions referenced—541 (1983) and 550 (1984)—explicitly call for non-recognition and non-cooperation with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. By affirming these, the Central Asian signatories—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan (as an observer)—appear to indirectly reject the legitimacy of TRNC, despite engaging with it within the OTS framework.

Legal status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

The island of Cyprus has remained ethnically and politically divided since 1974, when Turkey launched a military intervention in response to a coup d’état staged by Greek Cypriot nationalists seeking unification with Greece. As a result, approximately 37% of the island’s territory came under Turkish control. In 1983, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) unilaterally declared independence, but to date, it is recognized as a sovereign state only by Turkey.

Turkey maintains a military presence of around 40,000 troops in Northern Cyprus and provides substantial economic, political, and military support to the TRNC. The Republic of Cyprus and the United Nations view Turkey's presence on the island as an occupation, and the TRNC is considered an unrecognized entity under international law.

Despite its lack of broad international recognition, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus holds observer status in the Organization of Turkic States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

The TRNC has a population of approximately 294,906 people and spans an area of 3,355 km². The majority of the population are ethnic Turks, although enclaves of Greek Cypriots and Lebanese Maronites also reside in the region. Its capital is Lefkoşa (Nicosia), which remains a divided city, with one part administered by the Republic of Cyprus and the other by the TRNC.

A UN-patrolled buffer zone separates the northern and southern parts of the island, symbolizing the continued division. The peacekeeping mission, UNFICYP, has maintained a presence on the island since 1964 to prevent further conflict and facilitate a peaceful resolution.