Central Asian capitals face water crisis – experts

north_east

Central Asia is rapidly approaching the limits of water scarcity. Experts warn that major cities in the region could face a crisis similar to the one currently observed in Tehran, Iran, according to an article published on the “Nightingale” website.

Authors Sobir Qurbanov and Eldaniz Guseynov compared the situation to the “Tehran crisis.” In Iran’s largest city, reservoir levels are approaching “dead volume,” forcing the government to prepare plans for partial evacuation of the population.

The article notes that the perception of “sufficient water supply” no longer reflects reality. Groundwater levels are declining, soils are becoming saline, and ecosystems are deteriorating. These trends are already visible in the Aral Sea basin and are seen as indicators of future urban water challenges.

Analysts paid particular attention to the capitals of the region. The water supply networks in Tashkent and Bishkek largely date back to the Soviet era and are maintained through constant emergency repairs. In Uzbekistan, per capita water consumption is among the highest in the world, reaching nearly 400 liters per day—almost twice that of European cities. Such volumes make large cities extremely vulnerable, and even minor disruptions can lead to widespread outages.

The authors emphasize that poor crisis management is exacerbating the situation. Water tariffs do not cover the costs of network maintenance, and water agencies remain weaker than agricultural departments, which continue to increase consumption. Another source of pressure is Afghanistan: the construction of the “Qoshtapa” canal, which could divert a third of the Amu Darya flow, is already affecting water supply in southern Uzbekistan. In the future, this could have cascading effects across Central Asia, placing additional strain on the Syr Darya basin and posing a threat to Kazakhstan.

The situation is further complicated by autumn drought. According to hydrometeorological services, precipitation in some areas is 40–70 percent below normal. In rural areas of Tajikistan, electricity is limited to three hours per day. The lack of rain has also worsened air quality, with dust and smoke reaching hazardous levels.

Experts warn that without immediate reforms, the region could face increased migration, social unrest, and intensified competition over water resources between states. To avoid a “Tehran-style crisis,” Central Asia must modernize irrigation, reduce losses in water networks, expand solar and wind energy, enforce stricter urban planning, and establish a sustainable tariff policy.

Experts also stress the need for systematic dialogue with Afghanistan on managing the Amu Darya flow. Otherwise, the water crisis will deepen gradually but inevitably, eventually reaching a level that may become unmanageable.