Strongest magnetic storm expected in two months

A strong solar flare that occurred on August 5 may have a greater impact on Earth's magnetic field than initially expected. Scientists are now forecasting the strongest geomagnetic storm in the past two months to occur on August 8. This was reported by the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI and ISEF.

“Geomagnetic conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight, from Thursday into Friday. The situation on the Sun is currently extremely volatile—18 solar flares were recorded last night,” the statement reads.

Auroras are typically visible at latitudes of 60 degrees during such storms, but they may shift as far south as 50 degrees in particularly intense events. A more accurate forecast for the northern lights, expected between Friday night and Saturday morning, will be issued once the geomagnetic activity begins and the actual intensity can be measured.

Scientists note that if the trajectory of the solar material deviates by 3–5 degrees from predictions, the storm may not reach Earth. However, if the deviation shifts in the opposite direction, the event could become even more powerful—though the probability of this is estimated at 5%.

Initially, experts believed that the plasma cloud from the August 5 flare was ejected sideways, missing Earth. However, recalculations later confirmed that the high-speed core of the cloud is, in fact, on a direct collision course with the planet.

On August 5, two solar flares of the second-highest intensity category—class M—were recorded, one of which lasted 12 minutes. These were followed by five more M-class flares, including the strongest flare observed in the past one and a half months. These events are part of a surge in solar activity that began on August 1.

It is worth noting that researchers from the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom recently discovered molten mantle flows rising rhythmically from the Earth’s interior beneath the Afar region in Ethiopia.