Shifting signals, broken promises, and the risk of a new war

The Strait of Hormuz was opened to all. Donald Trump expressed gratitude to Iran. However, it was closed again on April 18. Where is the logic? A well-known blogger issued a sharp appeal to Vladimir Putin, stating that the public fears him. What will happen to her now? In Kyrgyzstan, two associates of Kamchybek Tashiyev were detained. Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day ceasefire, but within an hour, strikes resumed. In Turkey, students carried out armed attacks, killing dozens. Does this signal the beginning of a new war involving Israel? A suspect in the death of an Uzbek woman is presenting himself as disabled. To what extent will the court take this into account? Over the past week, global politics has once again demonstrated its deeply contradictory nature. On one side, powerful states call for “peace,” while on the other, people struggle for their rights and even survival. We review the most important global developments of the past seven days. 

Russian bloggers dissatisfied with Putin

In recent days, an unexpected and sharp wave of discontent has emerged on Russian social media. Prominent blogger and television presenter Viktoria Bonya released an 18-minute video address to Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that everyone is afraid of him.

“I am making this appeal on behalf of the people. They did not ask me to do this, but I feel internally that I must. Why? Because, Vladimir Vladimirovich, people are afraid of you. The public is afraid. Bloggers are afraid. Artists are afraid. Governors are afraid. Yet you are the president of our country. I believe we should not be afraid. I am not afraid. It seems to me that there is a huge, thick wall between you and ordinary people, and I want to break through that wall. Today I will speak about five important issues that no governor dares to raise,” she said.

Speaking “on behalf of the people,” the blogger criticized the response to flooding in Dagestan. Heavy rainfall beginning on the night of April 5 affected more than 6,000 people, flooded homes, and left at least six dead, according to official reports. She claimed that assistance was provided too late.

“Why was no help provided within the first 24–48, even 72 hours? Why did they start talking about it only after 10 days? Why is such a disaster unfolding?” she said.

The blogger also listed environmental and economic concerns, including large oil spills along the Anapa coastline and the illegal confiscation of livestock in the Novosibirsk region, as well as a proposed law allowing the hunting of animals listed in the Red Book.

“My mother lives in Anapa. There is another oil spill there, and there is nothing positive about it. The oil slick is so large it can be seen from space... People are cleaning water of dead birds with their own hands and collecting the oil themselves,” she said.

Anapa, located in Russia’s Krasnodar region, is one of the most popular resort areas on the Black Sea. Its beaches have been polluted, and the water contaminated. Possible causes of the oil spill include illegal dumping of oil waste by ships and accidents at nearby oil-loading ports, where leaks occur due to technical failures. The pollution poses a serious threat to marine life and birds, with volunteers attempting to clean affected areas.

On April 10, the Russian government reportedly blocked the Telegram messaging platform almost entirely. The blogger said this disrupted communication and deprived people of access to information.

“If there were an alternative platform that worked, we would say, ‘Why do we need Instagram or Telegram?’ But what they created does not work. They are lying to you. Because of this, many people have lost contact with their relatives. And the bans continue. Ban, ban, ban... It feels like we are no longer living in a free country, but in a place cut off from the world,” she said.

She also proposed creating a platform through which citizens could directly communicate with the president. Her appeal was supported by another blogger and presenter, Aiza, who also criticized the blocking of Telegram and said access to information had been severely restricted.

“I sincerely hope that our president is truly unaware... I do not understand why something available to 1 percent is not available to the remaining 99 percent... Basic needs are not being met,” she said.

Bonya’s video drew significant attention both in Russia and internationally, gaining around 28 million views, 1.5 million likes, and nearly 120,000 reposts. The Kremlin responded to her appeal. On April 16, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the issues raised had generated significant public resonance and said that work was already underway to address them.

Following the official response, Bonya posted another video, expressing gratitude that her appeal had not been ignored. However, some observers suggested the situation might have been staged or used to distract public attention. Regardless, a key development followed: Russia’s State Duma approved in the first reading a bill expanding President Vladimir Putin’s powers.

Under the proposed legislation, the president would be able to deploy military forces abroad to “protect” Russian citizens. If Russian nationals are detained, held, or persecuted in foreign countries, the president may authorize the use of military force, particularly in cases involving international courts not recognized by Moscow.

Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov said the bill aims to protect the rights and interests of Russian citizens and organizations abroad and counter what he described as growing Russophobia.

It is no secret that public suffering is sometimes used as justification for broader political strategies or military ambitions. In geopolitical conflicts, ordinary people often become the primary victims. While one side claims to act in defense of citizens, others suffer the consequences of power struggles. Analysts frequently note that wars produce no true winners, as decisions by a small number of political leaders can lead to the deaths of thousands of innocent people.

This perceived double standard is particularly evident in rhetoric between East and West. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko sharply criticized U.S. global policies from the perspective of human rights and democracy.

Lukashenko criticizes Western policies

In an interview with RT host Rick Sanchez, Lukashenko strongly criticized Washington’s foreign policy. He argued that the concept of human rights is often used as a political tool rather than applied in practice.

“You speak only about democracy and human rights — all of this is nonsense. Your policies in Venezuela, threats against Cuba, wars in the Middle East and other actions show that you are acting as a dictator. You are not democratic,” he said.

To support his argument, Lukashenko referred to a deadly incident in Minab, Iran, where 175 people were reportedly killed.

“What human rights are you talking about? If you support human rights, then ensure the most fundamental right — the right to life. You still need to learn what democracy is. We have far more democracy than you. Real democracy and real human rights are here,” he added.

Amid these tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on April 16 that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting April 17. According to him, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to the arrangement.

Although Hezbollah accepted the ceasefire, it stated that its actions would depend on Israel’s behavior. Iranian official Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described the truce as a result of the resilience of resistance forces.

The agreement initially appeared significant, especially as representatives of both sides had met in Washington on April 14 for the first time in 34 years, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio present. Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, described the talks as productive. However, questions remained about whether the agreement would hold.

The answer came quickly. Although the ceasefire officially took effect at midnight on April 17, Lebanon’s national news agency reported that Israeli forces carried out strikes in southern Lebanon within an hour, targeting Al-Khiyam and Dbaybin, while drone attacks were recorded in the Bekaa region.

These developments have raised concerns among analysts about the fragility of ceasefire agreements. Some experts suggest that such truces may serve only as temporary pauses before further escalation, highlighting the ongoing instability in the region.

Strait of Hormuz reopened to all shipping

Amid escalating military tensions in the Middle East, an unexpected economic development has emerged. Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period between Israel and Lebanon. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the decision is directly linked to the duration of the truce. 

Following the announcement, global oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent crude prices falling by nearly 9 percent to around $90 per barrel. Former U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Iran’s decision and expressed gratitude. However, he drew attention for referring to the waterway as the “Iran Strait” instead of the Strait of Hormuz in a social media post. Previously, during heightened tensions, he had also referred to it as the “Trump Strait.” 

Israel’s next target questioned

Behind these unexpected geopolitical shifts and temporary ceasefires, analysts suggest deeper and more complex strategic considerations may be at play. The recent breakdown of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon shortly after its announcement has further heightened concerns in the region. One key question being raised internationally is who Israel’s next target could be.

At this point, the position of Turkey, one of the region’s major actors, has come into focus. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a strong and cautionary statement regarding what he described as long-term strategic intentions of the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu.

According to Fidan, Israel’s current military and political doctrine is based on the continued presence of an external adversary. He suggested that once tensions with Iran reach a certain point, Israel may shift its focus elsewhere.

“After Iran, Israel cannot exist without an enemy. We see indications that it may seek to designate Turkey as its next adversary,” Fidan said. 

He added that Israel’s actions in Syria also pose direct risks to Turkey. While Israel is currently focused on developments involving Iran, Ankara believes this could change in the future.

Commenting on ongoing contacts between the United States and Iran, Fidan noted that while both sides appear sincere about achieving a ceasefire, their initial positions remain far apart. He emphasized the importance of sustained commitment to maintaining any ceasefire agreement and warned that Israel’s role in the process should be carefully considered. 

Although the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drop in oil prices may provide temporary economic relief, Fidan’s remarks indicate that geopolitical tensions in the region remain unresolved. Concerns over broader regional strategies and shifting alliances continue to underscore the fragility of peace in the Middle East.

Wave of youth violence raises concern in Turkey

As geopolitical tensions draw closer to Turkey’s borders, a series of violent incidents within the country has added to growing concerns. In recent days, multiple attacks have taken place in educational institutions, raising questions about their causes and possible connections.

On April 14, a shooting occurred at a vocational and technical high school in the Siverek district of Şanlıurfa province, injuring 16 people, including students, teachers, and civilians. The attacker later took his own life. 

A day later, on April 15, a student carried out a knife attack at Ege University in Izmir, injuring two people. On the same day, a separate shooting at a secondary school in Kahramanmaraş left 10 people dead, including eight students. The suspected attacker, identified as an eighth-grade student, was found to have multiple firearms and also died by suicide after the incident. 

The similarity and timing of these attacks have prompted a large-scale investigation. Turkish law enforcement authorities have indicated that the incidents may not be isolated acts of violence but could be linked to organized provocation efforts.

Authorities reported identifying an online group known as “S31K,” allegedly operating under the Israeli flag and involving around 100,000 members, where discussions of potential attacks and targets had taken place. In response, 940 accounts were restricted, 93 groups were shut down, and 83 suspects were detained. 

In light of the situation, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Education Minister Yusuf Tekin announced new security measures. These include deploying police officers at school entrances and using drones to monitor school surroundings in major provinces such as Gaziantep.

Authorities have also increased oversight of social media platforms to prevent the spread of extremist influence among young people. 

Observers note that these internal developments, alongside regional geopolitical tensions, highlight the complex and evolving security challenges facing Turkey.

World leaders gathered in Turkey

The Antalya Diplomacy Forum was held on April 17–19 under the auspices of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and hosted by the country’s Foreign Ministry. The forum has evolved beyond a routine international event and has become a platform for global dialogue at a time when the existing world order is under strain and a new one has yet to fully take shape. 

This year’s theme, “Navigating Uncertainty in a Transforming World,” highlights the growing challenges faced by states in adapting to changes in the global system and ensuring stability amid increasing uncertainty.

Since its launch in 2021, the Antalya Diplomacy Forum has attracted high-level participation. This year’s event brought together more than 20 presidents and prime ministers, over 50 foreign ministers, and hundreds of official delegations and representatives of international organizations. 

Attention has also been drawn to a criminal case involving an Uzbek citizen in Turkey. On July 5, 2025, the body of 35-year-old Muattar Aliyeva was found at the casino where she worked in the Köşk district of Aydın province. She had sustained a fatal gunshot wound to the head. 

Prosecutors have requested an aggravated life sentence for the main suspect, casino owner Rashid Yasan, on charges of premeditated murder. The first court hearing in the case took place on April 13 this year.

During the hearing, Yasan denied the charges, stating that he is 90 percent disabled and unable to use his right hand. He claimed he did not commit the crime and requested acquittal. He also rejected allegations that jealousy was the motive, describing his relationship with the victim as brief. 

In his testimony, Yasan said the victim had taken a weapon from a table during an argument and threatened both him and herself. He stated that he attempted to intervene but was unable to prevent the shooting. 

The court hearing, which lasted approximately seven hours, included testimony from four defendants and 14 witnesses. Discrepancies between witness statements given during the investigation and those presented in court have raised further questions. The court ordered a medical examination of the suspect’s right hand and requested a forensic analysis to determine the shooting distance and which hand was used. 

The court also ordered an inspection of the casino where the incident occurred and additional questioning of witnesses who have not yet testified. The suspect remains in custody, and the next hearing is scheduled for July 3. 

Tashiyev steps down from another position

Former head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiyev, appeared at a public event for the first time since leaving office. On April 15, he attended a congress of the Kyrgyz Football Union, where he announced his resignation as the organization’s president.

“I wish football success. In Kyrgyzstan, football cannot be considered a business. I have fulfilled my duties. I believe this is the last time I address you as chairman. Now, someone who truly loves football should take this position,” he said.

Tashiyev held the post for more than two years. During the congress, he presented a report on his tenure, noting that Kyrgyz football achieved unprecedented results with state support.

“Within two years, we built 17 new stadiums, and 14 more are under construction. Nearly 7 billion soums have been allocated, and projects of similar value are ongoing. These funds did not appear on their own — the state and our partners provided significant support,” he said. 

Developments involving individuals associated with Tashiyev have also drawn attention. Two of his former deputies, Timur Shabdanbekov and Daniel Risaliyev, have been detained.

According to reports, Shabdanbekov is suspected of abuse of office and was detained by military prosecutors. Risaliyev was taken in for questioning as part of a criminal investigation and was later placed under house arrest by court order. 

Risaliyev had served as deputy head of the State Committee for National Security since December 2025, overseeing cybersecurity issues. He previously worked within the security services, including in regional leadership roles, and was dismissed in February 2026 following кадровые changes within the agency.

Shabdanbekov has served in national security bodies since 1999, holding various positions, including roles in anti-corruption units. In 2019, he was appointed deputy head of the State Committee and head of the Ninth Service, responsible for protecting top state officials. He later continued as deputy chairman until his dismissal on February 10 this year. 

Sources indicate that other officials, including former regional security department leaders and heads of specialized units such as cybercrime divisions, may also be involved. Authorities have not yet disclosed full details of the case or the specific roles of those under investigation.