Putin is afraid: Victory Parade to be held in an “empty” square

This year, Russia’s Victory Parade will be held in a reduced format. Among those invited are no presidents of Central Asian countries. Why? Analysts say Putin is afraid and that Russia has fewer weapons and less military equipment left. How true is this? Meanwhile, Zelensky has advised representatives of other countries not to travel to Russia on May 9. Is he planning an attack? We look at May 9 — Victory Day — which has received special attention in Russia and CIS countries since the end of World War II, and the high-profile changes surrounding this year’s unexpectedly scaled-down event in Moscow.

On May 9, 1945, Moscow time, the final document on the unconditional surrender of German armed forces was signed in Berlin. After that, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin issued a decree declaring May 9 Victory Day. At 2:10 a.m. on the night of May 9, the famous Moscow Radio announcer Yuri Levitan read the long-awaited news to the Soviet people that Germany had fully surrendered and the war had ended.

Since the end of World War II, May 9 has been celebrated with great ceremony in Russia and CIS countries. In Russia in particular, this day has become a symbol of the government and its military power. The military parade held on Moscow’s Red Square has for years been one of the main tools for promoting the idea of a “mighty Russia.” Every year in early May, central Moscow would be filled with the noise of tanks, flights of fighter jets and the ceremonial march of thousands of troops.

However, this year’s Victory Day is expected to be significantly different from previous ones. According to recent reports, the 2026 parade will be held in a reduced format. Military equipment and air displays have been cancelled. Russian officials cite security concerns as the main reason, while the Kremlin blames Ukraine. More than three years after the start of the war, Victory Day, once a symbol of grandeur and confidence, is turning into a modest celebration. Why?

How will May 9 be marked in Moscow?

With only days left before the 2026 Victory Day parade on May 9, Moscow appears to be more focused on security concerns than on its usual festive atmosphere. Russia’s Defence Ministry and Kremlin representatives have officially confirmed that this year’s main military parade on Red Square will be held in a “reduced format.” One of the biggest changes is that the column of military equipment, traditionally one of the parade’s key symbols, will not be displayed. Tanks, missile systems, armoured vehicles and other heavy equipment are usually shown on Red Square. This year, however, they have been removed from the programme. Cadets from some military educational institutions, cadet corps and youth military organisations will also not take part in the event.

In fact, reports about the scaling back of this year’s parade began circulating much earlier. Earlier, pro-war Z-bloggers had reported that the traditional parade could be cancelled altogether. Ilya Tumanov, the author of the Fighterbomber channel, said in early April that rehearsals for the aerial part of the parade had been cancelled. Some media outlets reported that the first rehearsal in Moscow, which usually begins at least two weeks before May 9, had not yet been announced. Traditionally, rehearsals start at the Alabino training ground outside Moscow. By around April 20, Moscow’s transport department would normally announce road closure dates for parade rehearsals, and special road markings would be applied. This time, however, preparations for the ceremony began much later. In late March, the Kremlin said the main rehearsal for the parade would take place on May 7.

On April 27, political scientist Yekaterina Schulmann and journalist Alexandra Prokopenko, both listed in Russia as “foreign agents,” reported, citing their sources, that military equipment would not be included in this year’s parade.

“The May 9 parade, considered a sacred ritual for Putin, will be held on Red Square without military equipment and only with marching troops. According to sources, the event will be attended not by thousands of guests as usual, but by only a few hundred. The entire show will last less than an hour. The propaganda machine will claim that all of this was planned from the beginning and has nothing to do with drones,” Prokopenko wrote on X.

Two days later, on April 29, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the decision, explaining it by what he called “continued terrorist activity by Ukraine.” Russia has said in recent months that Ukrainian drones have reached deep inside Russian territory, including areas around Moscow. For this reason, security measures have been strengthened and the parade has been reduced as much as possible.

“We are taking all measures to minimise the threat. For this reason, we announce that military equipment and cadets will not take part in this year’s Victory Parade,” Peskov said.

Experts say the Kremlin is particularly concerned about the possibility of long-range drone attacks.

On May 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed countries close to Russia and advised them not to travel to Moscow on May 9. In a post on his Telegram channel, he thanked Ukraine’s special operations forces and other military units, saying that long-range strikes had been carried out on several important facilities in Russia. According to Zelensky, Ukraine once again proposed a ceasefire to Russia. This time, Kyiv suggested a full silence regime starting on May 6. Ukraine said it was ready for this, but in response, Russia launched new strikes and threats.

“It is as if they are asking Ukraine for permission to hold their parade safely. They want one hour of silence, and then they want to continue killing our people and continuing the war. This is strange and completely inadequate logic. Some countries close to Russia are planning to send representatives to events in Moscow. The desire to go to Moscow on May 9 is strange. We do not recommend it,” the Ukrainian president said.

The strengthening of security measures in the Russian capital has already begun to affect daily life. Some Moscow airports have been temporarily closed, while mobile communication and internet restrictions have been introduced in central areas. Additional checkpoints have appeared in the city centre, and air defence systems and armed security forces have reportedly been reinforced in some locations. The British newspaper The Guardian reported that snipers and additional military posts had been deployed on Moscow’s streets.

According to Russia’s Defence Ministry, the marching part of the parade will remain, but students of the Suvorov military schools, Nakhimov naval schools and cadet corps will not take part. In other words, the marching of troops will continue. Some sources say the traditional flight programme of Su-25 attack aircraft may still be preserved. However, it is clear that the main focus is now on security rather than a parade of military hardware.

The concerns surrounding this year’s parade also point to a new stage in the Russia-Ukraine war. In the early years of the war, Moscow was considered relatively safe. Now, however, reports are increasingly emerging that Ukrainian drones are reaching strategic facilities deep inside Russia. According to Reuters, on May 7, Russian air defence systems said they had shot down dozens of drones flying toward Moscow.

However, amid discussions on social media that the May 9, 2026, parade could be cancelled, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, said on the Breakfast Show YouTube channel that Ukrainian forces would not attack the Victory Parade in Moscow for humanitarian reasons, as many civilians would be present there.

“No one has abolished humanitarian principles. No one attacks civilians or civilian infrastructure,” he said.

Victory Day is not only a domestic event, but also an important political and diplomatic ceremony for the Kremlin. Every year, foreign guests, delegations from allied countries and some foreign leaders are invited to Moscow. Representatives of several countries are also expected this year. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said he would travel to Moscow, although he added that he would not attend the military parade itself. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has recently begun moving closer to Europe, openly announced that he would not attend the parade.

“I informed the president of that country about this during my visit to Russia in April,” he told journalists.

Compared with last year’s celebration, which was attended by representatives of nearly 27 countries, the number of visitors this year is very small. On May 7, the Kremlin press service published a list of heads of “foreign delegations” who would visit Moscow to celebrate Victory Day. According to the list, the event will be attended by Abkhaz President Badra Gunba, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith, Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and South Ossetian President Alan Gagloyev.

In Russia, Victory Day parades are seen as the main symbol of the victory in World War II. Under Vladimir Putin in particular, the event has become a demonstration of state power, historical memory and military capability. Red Square parades usually featured thousands of troops, hundreds of pieces of equipment and modern weapons, while fighter jets flew overhead. However, the 2026 parade is expected to be one of the most modest in recent years.

Unspoken reasons

Reports that there will be no tanks, missile systems or armoured vehicles at the May 9, 2026, parade have sparked major discussion in Russia. Usually, Yars nuclear missile systems, T-90 tanks, Iskander systems and other modern weapons are displayed during the parade. This time, however, Russia’s Defence Ministry says the column of military equipment has been cancelled because of the “current operational situation.”

Official Moscow explained the decision mainly by the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. Over the past two years, Ukraine has increasingly brought the war inside Russian territory. Drones have reached oil depots, military factories, airports and even areas around Moscow. The drone threat around the Russian capital has intensified especially since late 2025 and early 2026. For this reason, the Kremlin is trying to hold this year’s parade in the safest possible format.

In fact, the danger is not limited to the day of the parade itself. Military equipment begins preparing for the parade several weeks in advance. Tanks and missile systems are brought to special areas outside Moscow, where rehearsals are held. According to Ruslan Leviev, an OSINT analyst and one of the founders of the Conflict Intelligence Team, these preparation areas are the most vulnerable point. He says large military equipment is difficult to hide and can become a convenient target for drones. If one strike destroys or damages equipment prepared for the parade, it would be not only a military blow, but also a powerful ideological one.

Russian military bloggers are also describing the decision as a “forced precaution.” According to Alexander Kots, a correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda, the parade itself could have been cancelled. In his view, despite the risks, the Kremlin decided to preserve at least the marching parade in order to maintain the tradition.

Another aspect of this year’s changes is that Russia is now beginning to feel the war not only as a distant front, but also as an internal security problem. In recent days, Moscow airports have been closed several times, mobile internet restrictions have been imposed and additional checkpoints have appeared in the city. The British newspaper The Guardian reported that snipers and reinforced security posts had been deployed in central Moscow.

According to Austrian military historian Markus Reisner, a lecturer at the military academy in Wiener Neustadt, the equipment and hardware of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as the logistics needed to transport them, have already been deployed to the front, which is why they will not take part in the parade.

“The parade is being reduced not because of the ‘terrorist threat’ mentioned by Peskov, but because the war is consuming all resources. Russia has enough equipment, but transporting it from the front to the parade and back would require extremely high costs,” he said.

Another military expert, Yan Matveyev, believes that showing military weapons to a population facing economic difficulties during wartime could increase public anger.

“Another reason is the unwillingness to draw too much attention to military equipment against the background of the war’s failures, so as not to further anger an already dissatisfied public,” Matveyev said.

Interestingly, over the past two decades, Russia has turned the Victory Day parade into a show designed to demonstrate military power. Since 2008, heavy equipment has returned to Red Square, becoming an important part of the new militaristic image of Putin’s era. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the parade became one of the central stages of Kremlin propaganda. Russian television channels linked reports about soldiers at the front, new weapons and the “historical mission” directly to May 9. For this reason, a parade without military equipment appears unusual to many observers.

In short, this year’s parade is the result of growing concerns inside the Kremlin and the difficult economic situation caused by the war. No matter how often experts predict Russia’s victory in the war, asymmetric warfare based on modern technologies is now forcing Moscow to move from an offensive posture to a defensive one.