Weekly digest: Collapse of the world order and emerging powers

In 1991, the world political arena witnessed a major tectonic shift. The Soviet Union, which had been doomed to "rot" for many years, finally collapsed. And the reins of the planet remained in the hands of a single ruler. Since then, the United States has established a virtual monopoly on the formation of international order. The results of the presidential elections held in this country every 4 years began to determine what the next 4 years would look like for the world. November 5, 2024, was one of those days. More than 300 million Americans who had the opportunity to participate in the elections had a huge burden on their shoulders, they had to make a decision that would dramatically affect the political processes on Earth for the next 48 months. Earlier, in the pre-election campaign, a video released by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris hinted at an interesting choice in the presidential race. It was said that Americans must choose between fear, chaos, and hatred or the political course that the Democrats can offer. Today, against the backdrop of the strange trade war taking place in the world, the pressure and oppression exerted by Washington on several countries, the trampling on human rights, and the open spitting on the sovereignty of countries, it is clear that on November 5, Americans seem to have chosen the first path envisaged in Harris's campaign video: Fear, chaos, and hatred.

New Syria

For Ahmed al-Shara, who has been carrying out many controversial campaigns as the interim president of Syria for a week, the doors of the West are finally about to open. His first trips to Turkey and Saudi Arabia have strengthened his position as Syrian president and further enhanced his image in the international arena. As evidence of this, it can be said that shortly after these events, Ahmed al-Shara was invited to Paris by French President Emmanuel Macron. Shara is trying to adequately respond to such a positive attitude of the outside world towards him. His wife Latifa al-Duroubi appeared before the world community during her trip to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, a meeting was organized between Latifa and Emine Erdogan, one of the most influential soft powers among the first ladies, and Ahmed al-Shara himself is busy with major changes in domestic politics. For example, there are reports that he intends to radically change the composition of the country's government in the next two weeks. Because, as previously reported, by spring the Syrian interim government should transfer its powers to a new government. It is noted that several ministers working in the country are on the verge of changing. According to a source in the Syrian government of The National, it is not known whether even interim Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir will retain his post. The source noted that no one except al-Shara knows how the changes will go, but Asad al-Shibani will certainly remain as foreign minister. Asad al-Shibani, who graduated in 2022 with a master's degree in international relations from Istanbul's Sabahuddin Zeyma University, is one of the figures in the current Syrian transitional government that has some similarities with Turkey. The current Syrian government is mainly led by the leaders of the old Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group and other groups that played the role of armed opposition during the Assad era. In particular, Ahmed al-Shara was also offered the status of president at a meeting of the leaders of the same groups. It is not yet known whether these clans have changed their mindset as dramatically as Jolani's, moving from radicalism to moderation. The United States has previously made it clear that to improve relations with Syria, radical elements in power must be removed from governing the country. Therefore, the dramatic changes expected in New Syria's leadership over the next two weeks could be one of the decisive steps in building the country.

When it comes to changes, it is worth noting the efforts aimed at economic recovery. The announcement of a new interim government in Syria has accelerated international efforts to stabilize the country's finances. In particular, last week the European Union lifted part of the extensive sanctions imposed on Syria since 2011. Until then, the country had been virtually cut off from the global economy. Efforts are also being made in Syria itself to improve the difficult economic situation. It has long been clear that the Syrian state economy, under the rule of the Assad clan for 53 years, is completely based on nepotism and corruption. Commenting on the intricacies of the Assad regime, which has demonstrated the highest level of nepotism, the current interim Finance Minister of Syria, Mohammed Abazid, hinted that such a level of corruption had never even occurred to them. He told Reuters that only 900,000 of the 1.3 million people receiving state salaries went to work. Accordingly, the next step of the new government will be to lay off a third of those employed in the public sector. Abazid also announced a plan to privatize more than 100 loss-making state-owned industrial enterprises.

Today, the attitude and assessment of world countries towards the young transitional government in Syria play a decisive role in many issues. In particular, at the moment, 22 countries, including Turkey, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab League, support the new Syrian government. It was also announced that the UN will not back down from the missions it has set for Syria and, if necessary, will further intensify them. This is a very good result for the two-month term of the new Syrian leadership. However, at the same time, al-Shara is still on the US list of most wanted terrorists. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is still considered a terrorist organization by the UN and the US. This is explained by the group's previous links to ISIS and al-Qaeda. However, despite this, it is only necessary to quickly and effectively change the status of Ahmed al-Shara to the current one.

The New Queen of Syria: Latifa al-Duroubi Instead of the "Rose of the Desert"

After the tragic fate of Asma al-Assad, the first lady of Syria for 24 years, who was compared to Princess Diana and was nicknamed the "Rose of the Desert", there was a question of who would take her place. This week, a woman who appeared before the Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Shara during his visit to Saudi Arabia answered this question unequivocally: Latifa al-Duroubi. The images of a couple performing Umrah in Mecca have attracted much attention online. Footage circulating on social media showed the couple, dressed in Umrah attire, walking side by side inside the Grand Mosque and entering the Kaaba together. It was al-Duroubi's first public appearance since a meeting with a delegation of Syrian women from the United States last week. At that time, al-Shara introduced her to the public, confirming for the first time that she was his only wife. According to a participant in the meeting, the Syrian transitional president stressed that he "loves" his wife "very much" and denied rumors that he has more than one wife. Arab media outlets described the event as a speech dedicated to the role of women in strengthening ties with society. It is noted that his recent appearances, including the meeting with a delegation of Syrian women from the United States and the Umrah pilgrimage, indicate that al-Duroubi's public role is increasing. Among the descriptions given to Latifa by the participants of the US delegation meeting are: cultured, elegant speaker, restrained, kind, calm, beautiful, confident, educated, and many other positive assessments. According to Arab publications, Latifa al-Durubi is also known as Latifa al-Shara. She was born in 1984. She has a master's degree in Arabic language and literature and is the mother of three sons. The wife of the Syrian transitional president al-Shara may leave such an impression on many, and her activism may be one of the messages that official Damascus is sending to the world. It is also worth noting that Latifa al-Shara has already had her first meeting with another high-ranking official as first lady. On February 4, during Ahmed al-Shara's visit to Turkey, a meeting was held between Emine Erdogan, the wife of the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Latifa. According to Anadolu, during the meeting held at the State Guest House in Ankara, Emine Erdogan and al-Duroubi exchanged views on humanitarian aid, social solidarity, women's empowerment, and the role of education. They also discussed steps that Turkey and Syria can take together for women and children who have been most affected by the war. Al-Duroubi expressed gratitude to Turkey for its assistance in the reconstruction of Syria. Thus, Latifa al-Shara began to make a worthy impression as the first lady of Syria. She was personally called "first lady" by Emine Erdogan, the most powerful first lady in the region. But 24 years ago, Asma al-Assad was also welcomed in the political arena and among the Syrian people in the same way. However, what happened next is known to everyone. Only time will tell what Latifa's future as the wife of a political leader will look like. More precisely, her fate in this position will be determined by the political decisions made by Ahmed al-Shara. Just as Asma's ugly fate is the fruit of the Assad regime.

The Trump Era: 4 Years of the Law of the Jungle, Not International Law

While the progress and positive changes in New Syria led by Ahmed al-Shara and its rapid reintegration into the world community adorn the analysis of the week, the fact that a 78-year-old man starts a new conflict every week across the ocean is a disgrace to these analyses. Once it treats illegal immigrants like animals and returns them handcuffed to their countries, another time it arbitrarily increases definitions or threatens its neighbors with increases. Now, right in front of the whole world, it is directly threatening to commit crimes against humanity. As many know, this week, on the evening of February 4, a press conference was held at the White House with the participation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has undoubtedly committed the most brutal genocide of the 21st century, and US President Donald Trump, who is on the verge of continuing this work with ethnic cleansing. Because in it, Trump revealed for the first time his intention to occupy Gaza. This proposal, which practically eliminates the two-state solution, caused, as expected, negative reactions in the international arena. Both allies and foes of the United States have condemned President Donald Trump’s proposal to hand over the Gaza Strip to Washington and forcibly relocate 2 million Palestinians to other countries, turning the territory into a “Middle East Riviera.” Britain, China, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Russia, Australia, and Spain have all announced their support for a two-state solution. The concept was supported by the United States before Trump. Several U.S. lawmakers have also spoken out against Trump. Democratic Senator Chris Coons called the president’s proposal “insulting, insane, dangerous and ridiculous,” while Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, who is of Palestinian origin and protested Netanyahu’s visit and speech during the summer, called Trump’s idea of ​​​​relocating the entire population of Gaza “an open call for ethnic cleansing.” In addition, the current events in Gaza have also put the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia on the verge of a setback. After Riyadh announced its opposition to Trump's plan to expel the Palestinians from Gaza, Netanyahu made a sharp statement, saying, "Saudi Arabia can establish a Palestinian state on its territory if it wants." This is because Saudi Arabia refused to normalize relations with Tel Aviv until the two-state solution was resolved after Israel invaded Gaza. Trump, on the other hand, recently announced that Riyadh had abandoned this position and would no longer allow the Palestinian issue to be discussed to improve relations with Israel. However, Saudi officials immediately denied Trump's statement and stated that they would not abandon their position on the two-state solution.

Meanwhile, despite the turmoil in various parts of the world, especially the Middle East and overseas, since January 20, Trump and his oligarchic administration, who have pushed aside the international order, are currently giving the impression that they are conducting a foreign policy based on the rules of the jungle. He also avoided answering the question about his position on the two-state principle. In general, the statement about clearing Gaza of Palestinians and occupying it means that Trump spat on the idea of ​​​​two states. He had already shown his indifference to independent Palestinian statehood during his first mandate with the decision to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. This time, Trump, who aims to expel the indigenous population from the Gaza Strip, adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, and create a "resort" there, wants to create many jobs and a stable economy in the territory. And he hinted at all the necessary measures to achieve this, in particular, sending troops to the sector. After Trump's statement about "ethnic cleansing" and the occupation of the sector, the defense departments of the United States and its "vassal" Israel in the Middle East became more active. In particular, former journalist Pete Hegseth, who now heads the Pentagon, announced that the structure under his leadership is ready to consider "all possible options" for participation in operations in Gaza.

"When it comes to Gaza, the definition of insanity is trying to do the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The president is ready to think outside the box, to look for new, original, and dynamic ways to solve problems that have seemed insoluble until now... We are ready to consider all options," the Pentagon chief said before meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Hegseth said that the Pentagon will begin supplying Israel with weapons that the United States has not previously provided to its ally. According to him, these weapons can be useful in destroying Israel's "radical opponents." Hegseth was most likely referring to Trump's decision to lift a ban on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which had already been imposed by former President Joe Biden. Israeli Defense Minister Katz instructed the country's army, the IDF, to develop a plan that would allow Gazans to voluntarily leave the Palestinian territories and go to any country willing to accept them.

"The plan includes land exit points, as well as special mechanisms for sea and air exit. Spain, Ireland, Norway, and other countries have unjustly accused Israel of its actions in Gaza. They are legally obliged to allow Gazans into their territories, and if they refuse, their hypocrisy will be exposed. "At the same time, countries with immigration programs, such as Canada, have previously expressed their willingness to accept Gaza residents," he says.

International Law in the Making

Last year, after nine months of efforts by the International Criminal Court Prosecutor, Karim Khan, an arrest warrant was issued for Netanyahu and Galant, the main organizers of the unprecedented massacre in Gaza. Subsequently, several countries, including Canada and Britain, as states that have ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, announced their commitment to implementing this decision. However, as expected, the United States, which has not ratified the statute, began to protect its protégé in the Middle East, Israel. Initially, the Biden administration threatened to impose sanctions on the ICC. In January, the US House of Representatives voted to impose sanctions on the ICC, but the bill failed to pass the Senate. Shortly thereafter, Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the ICC, accusing Israel of illegally targeting it. The document states that financial and visa sanctions will be imposed on Americans or their allies, as well as on those involved in the investigation, as well as their family members. Earlier, according to Reuters, the International Criminal Court took measures to protect its staff from potential US sanctions by paying them three months' salary in advance in the face of the expected restrictions. This is also the second time that the ICC has faced US retaliation. In 2020, during the first Trump administration, Washington imposed sanctions on ICC Prosecutor General Fatou Bensouda and Jurisdiction Director Fakiso Benchochoho for their investigation of US war crimes in Afghanistan.

From the first moments of his official second term, Donald Trump's "disease" of leaving organizations that are the basis of international relations has returned. After his inauguration in January of this year, the US president signed a decree on the country's withdrawal from the WHO. As noted above, such decisions by Trump are nothing new. During his first term, he stopped funding the Middle East Agency for Palestinian Refugees and also withdrew the United States from the UN Human Rights Council and UNESCO, the Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Today, Trump's decision has also been followed by another ultra-populist in Latin America, former TikToker Javier Miley, the President of Argentina. Miley expressed dissatisfaction with the organization's methods of fighting the coronavirus during the COVID-19 pandemic and reportedly instructed Foreign Minister Gerardo Verteino to withdraw the country from the World Health Organization (WHO). The presidential spokesman added that in addition to withdrawing from the WHO, Argentina is also considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. The idea of ​​​​withdrawing from the Paris Agreement was also first raised by Trump during his inauguration ceremony this year. And withdrawing from the Paris Agreement will lead to increased US extraction of natural resources in the face of global climate change. He also withdrew from the agreement during his first term.

But these are not the last agreements the US has abandoned in a short period under Trump this year. On February 4, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the UN Human Rights Council and banning any future financial support for the Middle East agency that helps Palestinian refugees. The statement explaining the withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council stated that the council had failed to fulfill its core responsibilities and had become a tool to protect states that violate human rights. The UN Human Rights Council is an intergovernmental body consisting of 47 states. It was established by the UN General Assembly in 2006 to promote the protection and respect for human rights worldwide. The US joined the council in 2009 during the presidency of Barack Obama. During the presidency of Joe Biden, the United States was a member of the council from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, after which it was transferred to observer status. When Trump withdrew the United States from the UN Human Rights Council in 2018, the council had adopted 10 times more resolutions against Israel since 2006 than against Iran. A day after this US decision, Israel also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council. This was reported by the country's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on his X page.

According to the head of the Foreign Ministry, Israel is the only target state in the UN Human Rights Council, whose agenda is dedicated exclusively to it. He noted that this body has adopted more than 100 resolutions condemning Israel, which accounts for more than 20 percent of the total number of resolutions adopted by this council. This is significantly more than the resolutions adopted against Iran, Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. Naturally, such resolutions would be adopted against a state that has been forcing Palestinians to live under apartheid oppression for more than 70 years.