Putin’s refusal behind the “agreement”

Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt the invasion, but as usual, the Russian president is complicating any potential truce by setting forth several conditions. Saudi Arabia, which accepted an invitation from American officials in Jeddah, has indicated that many issues need to be discussed, referencing the factors that led to the invasion. This suggests that his response does not signal consent and that he still has no intention of backing down from the conditions he laid out at the start of the invasion.

Negotiations in Jeddah and US pressure

On March 11, a meeting took place in the Saudi city of Jeddah between Ukrainian and US delegations. During the talks, the US proposed a 30-day ceasefire to Ukraine. Following the discussions, the US and Ukrainian delegations issued a joint written statement, in which Ukraine expressed its readiness to accept the 30-day ceasefire proposal immediately. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine's willingness to engage in a ceasefire would be conveyed to Russia. On the same day, both Trump and Rubio voiced their hopes that Russia would agree to the proposed ceasefire. Later that evening, Ukrainian President Zelensky, in a video address, praised the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for peace.

All attention then turned to Moscow. A day passed with no response from the Kremlin. Following calls for action, the US intensified its pressure on Russia. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant stated that if necessary, the US would impose the most severe sanctions on Russia to ensure the success of peace talks. He noted that the Biden administration had been too lenient with sanctions, a weakness he believes the Trump administration could overcome. According to Bessant, maximum pressure on both sides was part of Trump's successful negotiation plan. 

“If you were to rate it on a scale of one to ten, the sanctions against Russia under former US President Joe Biden’s administration could probably be rated as a three. Toward the end of his term, they increased to a six. I can say that we will increase them to a ten without hesitation,” Bessant said.

Response from the Kremlin

On March 13, Moscow finally responded. That same day, the plane of US President Donald Trump's special representative, Steve Witkoff, landed at Moscow's Vnukovo airport. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, US negotiators were arriving in Russia, and talks were scheduled for March 13. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov addressed the US proposal, stating that Moscow was opposed to a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. He explained Russia’s position in a conversation with US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, saying that a temporary ceasefire would merely buy time for the Ukrainian army to regroup. Ushakov emphasized that Russia was only interested in a long-term resolution to the conflict.

"Our goal is to reach an agreement on a long-term peace path, and we are striving for this. This agreement should take into account Russia’s legitimate interests and concerns. Measures that only mimic a ceasefire are of no benefit to anyone," Ushakov said.

The Kremlin aide also stressed that Moscow hoped Washington would understand Russia’s stance on Ukraine and take it into account when discussing a ceasefire. This followed reports that Russia had sent a list of demands to the United States, which were similar to the conditions previously outlined by Moscow to Ukraine, the US, and NATO. These demands include:

- Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO;
- No foreign troops deployed in Ukraine;
- Recognition of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia as part of Russia.

Putin's response

Although Yuri Ushakov stated that Russia did not agree to a ceasefire, he indicated that the final decision would be made by Vladimir Putin. On March 13, in the context of a visit from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and a joint press conference, Putin provided his response to the US proposal. According to Putin, Russia agrees with the US suggestion of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, but any ceasefire must lead to long-term peace and address the underlying causes of the conflict. The phrase "eliminating the factors that caused the conflict" is crucial here, as it most likely refers to the demands that initiated the invasion and have remained unchanged. These include Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO, demilitarization, recognition of occupied territories, and other demands that challenge Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. 

Putin elaborated that issues still need to be discussed, such as monitoring the ceasefire regime on the front line, the fate of Ukrainian soldiers in Russia's Kursk region, and the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. 

"We agree with the proposals for a cessation of hostilities, but this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of this crisis. This idea is correct in itself, and we, of course, support it. However, there are issues that we need to discuss. I think we need to hold talks with our American partners. Perhaps we should contact US President Trump and discuss this issue with him. But we support the idea of ending this conflict peacefully," Putin said.

Trump is not satisfied, Zelensky is disappointed

US President Donald Trump acknowledged that Putin’s statement about a potential ceasefire gave some hope, but he described it as "not complete." In a candid conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington on March 13, Trump mentioned that he would personally discuss the ceasefire proposal with Putin. He also expressed satisfaction with the talks in Russia held by his special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. However, Trump stressed that this progress meant little until there was a final resolution.

“If Putin does not agree to the proposal made by the United States and Ukraine after the talks in Jeddah, it will be a source of hope. Many details of the final agreement have already been discussed. Now we will see if Russia is involved. Otherwise, this is a very hopeless moment for the whole world,” Trump stated.

Ukrainian President Zelensky, however, sharply criticized Putin’s statement, calling it "another manipulation by the Russians." Zelensky argued that Putin is afraid to directly tell Trump that he intends to continue the war and keep killing Ukrainians. He suggested that the Russian leadership is masking the idea of a ceasefire with conditions designed to either fail or drag out the process.

“Putin does this often, he does not say 'no' directly, but drags things out, making rational solutions impossible. We consider this another Russian manipulation,” Zelensky remarked.

Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine is ready to work quickly and constructively, without setting conditions that would complicate the peace process. However, he accused Russia of taking actions that only prolong the conflict.

“As we have always said, the only thing that has stalled and is not constructive is Russia. They need this war. Putin stole years of peace and continues this war day after day. Now it is time to increase pressure on him. Sanctions must be applied, they will work. We will continue to work with our American and European partners and everyone who wants peace in the world to force Russia to end this war,” the Ukrainian President added.