Putin's “last” 10 days

The current U.S. President, known for his flair in setting deadlines—only to later dismiss them as jokes—has once again established a timeline for a serious political matter. Two weeks ago, Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a 50-day deadline to halt the invasion of Ukraine. That period has now been shortened to 10–12 days. However, even this reduction remains ambiguous. Although the U.S. leader claimed it would be pointless to overestimate Putin or expect a meaningful result, setting a new deadline suggests Trump has not yet reached a definitive position on the issue. Based on past behavior, any deadline set by Trump often signals it will not be enforced. Previously, he pledged to stop the war within 24 hours, then gave 100 days, before eventually saying, “I don’t know how to do it.” Giving a deadline to end the war in Ukraine—especially to a leader like Putin, who has continued a bloody conflict for 3.5 years against nearly unanimous global condemnation—makes it even more uncertain. Nevertheless, the ultimatum is coming from the President of one of the world’s most powerful countries. Even if Trump tends to be vague, his position still carries global weight.

From 50 to 10

On July 14, during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump stated that if peace in Ukraine was not achieved within 50 days, the U.S. would impose 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russia’s trading partners. At the same meeting, Trump made a controversial remark about his wife Melania and Putin. The 50-day ultimatum was met with criticism, especially from Western officials. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed cautious gratitude, some in the European Union argued that the deadline merely granted Russia more time to inflict damage on Ukraine.

The announcement shifted global attention to the White House, the Kremlin, and the course of the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov initially called Trump’s tariff threat “serious” and said the Kremlin was assessing the statement. He added that President Putin might later comment, but that his stance had not yet been formulated. Soon, however, Russia’s position became clear as the invasion of Ukraine intensified. Drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities increased. Despite this, Trump may have been waiting for Putin to initiate peace talks. Instead, Russia escalated its aggression, which appears to have tested Trump’s patience.

On July 26, Trump visited Scotland. On June 27, he met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and on July 28, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The main topics included a U.S.–EU trade agreement and the situation in Ukraine. Trump, who managed to pressure the EU into accepting a 15 percent tariff, made another strong statement ahead of his meeting with Starmer. He announced that the original 50-day Ukraine peace deadline would be shortened, though he did not immediately specify the new timeframe.

Eventually, Trump revealed to journalists that the new deadline would be 10 or 12 days. He explained that the revision came after Russia failed to take any steps toward peace.

“I will set a new deadline starting today—10 or 12 days. There is no point in waiting 50 days. I want to be generous, but we are not seeing any progress,” Trump said.

According to Trump, he prefers not to impose new restrictions on Russia and still hopes the hostilities in Ukraine will end. He stated that a final decision on the new deadline would be made within 24 hours, formalizing the statement delivered on June 28. Trump also repeated that he had several conversations with Putin that day. However, not long after, Russia resumed missile strikes on Kyiv and other cities, leading Trump to reiterate his disappointment in the Russian leader.

A "show" in Scotland

Beyond the 10-day ultimatum, the circumstances of its announcement are also notable. Trump’s visit to Scotland, his mother’s homeland, had the air of a monarch’s return. His meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was held on Trump’s own turf, with Trump assuming the role of host. Protocol would normally dictate otherwise. Although Scotland is part of the United Kingdom, it maintains a distinct legal system and autonomous governance in several areas. Nevertheless, the visit broke many diplomatic conventions. Starmer essentially ceded protocol to Trump, an unusual move for a sitting British Prime Minister.

The relationship between Trump and Starmer has lacked traditional formality. For example, at their White House meeting, Starmer gave Trump a letter inviting the King to visit the UK—another move outside diplomatic norms. Trump later flew Starmer across Scotland on his private jet, escorting him to a golf club—an event that became the subject of many media reports. One day prior, on July 27, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also visited Trump’s Turnberry golf course and returned with a trade deal critics in the EU called a “surrender.”