Seditious Britain and “big brother Turkey” – What do the Russians see as the reasons for the aggravation of relations with Azerbaijan? What about the other side?

Recently, geopolitical topics have become easily accessible for public discussion in world politics. One such issue involves long-time acquaintances: Russia and Azerbaijan. Relations between the two countries are currently going through a serious crisis. At the end of last month, around 50 ethnic Azerbaijanis were arrested in Yekaterinburg, with two of them, the Safarov brothers, reportedly dying in custody. Unsurprisingly, Baku expressed strong dissatisfaction, and in response, Russian journalists were arrested in Azerbaijan on suspicion of espionage. In Russia, raids on the Azerbaijani diaspora are still underway. However, the deterioration of relations between Baku and Moscow began even earlier. This article explores the key factors behind the current tensions and presents views from both sides, who continue to blame each other.

Situations that have exacerbated relations between Russia and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani plane crash. Tensions between Moscow and Baku began to escalate after an Azerbaijani passenger plane crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan on December 25, 2024. That day, an Embraer 190 aircraft of Azerbaijan Airlines flying from Baku to Grozny went down, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. Later, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that the plane had been damaged by gunfire from the ground while flying over Russian airspace.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed condolences and apologized during a phone call with his Azerbaijani counterpart. Aliyev, however, demanded that Moscow accept responsibility, punish those responsible, and compensate the victims. He also accused Russia of attempting to cover up the incident. To date, the matter remains unresolved.

The closure of the Russian House in Baku and Aliyev's absence from the Victory Parade. Further incidents followed the plane crash. In February 2025, the Russian House, which had operated in Baku for nearly 30 years, ceased its activities. According to reports, the closure was due to the organization's failure to complete necessary registration procedures.

Commenting on Baku’s decision, Russian State Duma deputy Nikolai Valuev drew attention to the role of national diasporas in Russia. He claimed that such diasporas were not focused on cultural exchange but were involved in handling large sums of illegal funds. In response, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared Valuev "persona non grata" and barred him from entering Azerbaijan. In May, Moscow reciprocated by banning Azerbaijani deputy Azer Badamov from entering Russia.

Another symbolic sign of cooling relations was President Ilham Aliyev’s absence from the Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9.

Death of Russian soldiers in Nakhchivan. The tragic events in Nagorno-Karabakh in late September 2023 also heightened tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan. Russian peacekeepers returning from an observation post were killed in a shelling incident. According to the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s Office, Azerbaijani military personnel mistakenly believed the vehicle belonged to Armenian forces. A KamAZ truck carrying Russian peacekeepers was hit. Reports confirmed the deaths of six Russian servicemen. Aliyev apologized to Putin and pledged to hold those responsible accountable. Later, the commander of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Corps was reportedly dismissed from his post.

Differences in positions on Ukraine. Since its independence, Azerbaijan has supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In 2014, Azerbaijan stated at the UN that it would not recognize Crimea as part of Russia. President Aliyev reaffirmed this stance in April 2022, the third month after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In December 2023, Russian journalist Alexei Sochnev highlighted a post by a Ukrainian military reporter showing ammunition production partners. Among the images, symbols of the Azerbaijani company Palladium were allegedly visible. However, the company denied any involvement. In April 2024, President Aliyev stated:

“We are not supplying weapons to Ukraine. Even if they ask, we cannot do it. We say this openly — we will not do it. Humanitarian aid — yes. Weapons — no.”

Media battle. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Roskomnadzor began restricting access to several Azerbaijani news websites. For instance, in March of that year, restrictions were imposed on the news platforms "Haqqin.az" and "Minval.az". By June, access to the "RIA Novosti" website was blocked in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry explained the decision by noting that the agency had been promoting statements from a representative of the “unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.”

In May 2025, the Russian TV channel "Tsargrad" was blocked in Azerbaijan. During the latest wave of confrontations, on June 30, Azerbaijani police detained two individuals working for "Sputnik Azerbaijan", suspected of being agents of the Russian Federal Security Service. A number of media outlets reported that the individuals were held on suspicion of “illegal financing” of the publication’s operations. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Internal Affairs later clarified that although the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" agency’s operations had been officially suspended since February of this year, the publication continued to operate illegally.

“The big game” – How does the Russian public assess relations with Azerbaijan?

In an interview with "ForPost", Russian political scientist Vadim Siprov said that the current tensions should be seen as part of a “big game.” He explained that the geopolitical confrontation between Great Britain and Russia, which has intensified amid the weakening of U.S. influence, is now being played out across neighboring countries.

“This game involves all neighboring states, from Finland to Kazakhstan, in opposition to our country. Belarus, of course, is an exception. Azerbaijan has been assigned a significant role in this game. Behind the scenes, Great Britain is exploiting the close ties between Baku and Ankara, the political ambitions of their leaders, the pro-Turkish and pro-British elites in power, the strong Azerbaijani lobby within Russia, and criminal groups,” he said.

Siprov believes that the United States, preoccupied with both domestic and international challenges, now exerts the weakest influence across post-Soviet countries in its history.

“I repeat, the key to today’s problems with Baku lies in London. The more successfully Russia can exploit the contradictions between Britain and the U.S., the sooner the Azerbaijani elite will moderate its Russophobic sentiment. The main condition for this is the weakening of Great Britain,” he added.

Vitaly Ryumshin, a journalist and political commentator for "Gazeta.ru", also shared his views on Azerbaijan’s current stance. He argued that President Aliyev’s bold approach stems from “disgust from success” following Azerbaijan’s victories over Armenia.

“After retaking Karabakh, Azerbaijan began to see itself as a regional power. This is reflected in the current rhetoric of the local media, where Russia is accused of refusing to acknowledge Azerbaijan as a ‘strong national state,’” he wrote.

According to Ryumshin, Azerbaijan has grounds for such confidence. It is a genuinely powerful military force in the region and controls key logistics corridors vital to Russia, China, and the European Union. Geopolitically, Baku is currently in a favorable position: Armenia has been defeated, Iran—once a check on Azerbaijani ambitions—is preoccupied with internal issues, and Turkey, Azerbaijan’s “big brother,” stands firmly by its side. Meanwhile, Russia is tied down by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and cannot afford to open a new front.

However, the journalist stresses that “no matter how much Baku wants to push forward, Russia has the capacity to restrain it.”

“We must not forget that Russia is home to one of the largest Azerbaijani diasporas in the world—about half a million people. Our country accounts for around 50 percent of remittances sent to Azerbaijan and is one of its top three trading partners. This gives Moscow substantial leverage to choose how and when to respond to Baku—if it wishes to do so,” he noted.

In an interview with "Moskovsky Komsomolets", political scientist Marat Bashirov echoed the views of his Russian colleagues. According to him, Azerbaijan is a young state that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union and, in his view, “did not fully understand the implications of independence.”

“Azerbaijan was one of those countries that didn’t grasp what independence would entail. It could have been annexed by Turkey or Iran. Azerbaijan is still a young country learning how to be independent. Its president lacks significant experience,” said the political analyst.

Bashirov, like Siprov, believes that the United Kingdom is behind the current crisis.

“It’s always the British. They have networks that are very effective at plotting,” he concluded.

“Russia cannot tolerate Azerbaijan’s independent policy” – What do Azerbaijani political scientists see as the reason for the conflict?

The ongoing tensions with Russia are also actively discussed in Azerbaijan’s local media, where they are largely interpreted as part of a broader defense of national interests. For example, the death of the Safarov brothers in Yekaterinburg is widely described as a barbaric act. Azerbaijani media outlets accuse Russia of shamelessly calling the incident a “heart attack” and, instead of taking responsibility, attempting to conceal the crime with lies and shift the blame onto Azerbaijan. According to Azerbaijani commentators, Russia is deliberately seeking to destabilize the region and test Azerbaijan’s patience.

Political scientist Aktai Kasimov, in an interview with "Turkustan.az", stressed that the root cause of these tensions is Russia's unwillingness to accept Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy. He argued that Russia continues to regard all post-Soviet states as part of its exclusive sphere of influence.

“Russia also dislikes Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with Turkey and its efforts to build a modern military and security system based on global standards,” he said.

According to Kasimov, Moscow has lost the ability to exert internal pressure on Azerbaijan and is now trying to assert influence through external means—most notably through the Azerbaijani diaspora.

“Amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet space is steadily declining. Over the past three years, and especially in the South Caucasus, Moscow’s geopolitical reach has narrowed considerably,” political analyst Rizvon Huseynov told "Konkret.az".

He believes that the current deterioration in interstate relations is not solely geopolitical but also tied to internal power struggles among different factions within the Kremlin.

“Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani side is monitoring the situation carefully and remains interested in maintaining stable relations,” Huseynov added.

Zaur Mammadov, Chairman of the Baku Political Scientists Club, views Russia’s actions as a direct attempt to pressure Azerbaijan through the diaspora. In an interview with *Report.az*, he said that Moscow is motivated by fears that Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries could form closer military and political alliances with the West.

According to Mammadov, Azerbaijan plays a crucial logistical role for Russia. Specifically, Russian goods are exported to Iran and India via Azerbaijani territory. He also noted that Azerbaijan has not joined the international sanctions imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In general, Baku has avoided any steps that would provoke Moscow.

“In this context, Moscow’s aggressive actions will ultimately only harm itself,” Mammadov concluded.