How might Iran respond to the U.S. strike on its nuclear sites?

The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities has destabilized the Middle East, and the international community is now watching closely for Tehran's next move.

Speaking in Istanbul on June 22, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country has “several options” for response. From targeting U.S. military bases to closing international maritime routes, Iran is reportedly considering multiple scenarios, each carrying serious risks for Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Iran could target U.S. interests in the region

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may reactivate proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. These groups have previously attacked U.S. assets in the region.

One of Iran’s long-time regional allies, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has been weakened by Israeli airstrikes, but remains a potential actor.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. maintains 19 military sites in the region, including 8 permanent bases. As of June 13, 2025, there are approximately 40,000 U.S. military personnel stationed across the Middle East.

In 2020, Iran launched a missile strike on a U.S. military base, injuring over 100 American soldiers.

Yemeni Houthi leaders have also threatened attacks on U.S. naval vessels. On June 22, one of their officials said: “Trump is responsible for the consequences of this strike.”

Iran may disrupt the global oil trade

Iran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Nearly 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily. Experts warn that such an action could severely disrupt global markets and undermine U.S. economic pressure.

Iran could accelerate its nuclear program

Some analysts believe that even if the current regime falls, any new leadership would pursue the development of nuclear weapons.

Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute in Washington, stated that “Trump has effectively guaranteed Iran will become a nuclear power within 5 to 10 years.”

Iran might also withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Iran is likely to continue striking Israel

Following the U.S. attack, Iran launched missiles at Israel, reportedly injuring 86 people in Tel Aviv, many of whom were hospitalized.

Recognizing that it cannot engage in a full-scale war with the United States, Iran may instead continue its attacks against Israel.

In a similar scenario in 2020, after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes that caused injuries but no fatalities—what analysts called a “bloodless” response.

Cyberattacks and terrorism are also on the table

Iran may turn to asymmetric tactics such as cyberattacks or acts of terrorism, aiming for high impact with minimal resources. This approach may be linked to the depletion of its missile stockpiles following recent attacks on Israel.

The Revolutionary Guard still retains significant influence both in the region and globally, providing Iran with operational flexibility.

Iran refuses to return to nuclear talks

Amid continued Israeli strikes, Iran has declared it will not return to negotiations. Araghchi specifically accused the U.S. of “blowing up diplomacy” with its strike on nuclear sites.

Though European and Iranian diplomats had recently held talks in Geneva, the latest developments cast serious doubt on the future of these discussions.