The game has just begun: 2 shots in 20 seconds, 2 extraneous sounds in 24 seconds. What do these mean?

The fate of the Azerbaijani plane that was shot down over Russian territory on December 25 last year and later crashed in Aktau is once again in the spotlight. This renewed attention comes amid recent diplomatic tensions between Baku and Moscow. Leaked materials published by the Azerbaijani outlet MINVAL—including a letter, video, and audio recordings allegedly from a Russian captain—have become a turning point in the investigation. Many are now asking why this evidence has been released at this particular time. However, setting aside the broader context, it is worth focusing on two crucial aspects: the two shots fired at the aircraft and the fact that both occurred within approximately 20 seconds, no more, no less.

As previously reported, the "black box" of the Azerbaijani Embraer 190 aircraft was sent to Brazil, its country of manufacture. Soon after, a commission led by Kazakhstan and including Azerbaijani representatives shared preliminary findings about the crash, approximately five months ago, in late January. In early February, the first official reports were released. These reports included important details, notably about two unexplained sounds recorded during the incident. According to the findings, the aircraft had attempted to land twice while flying over Grozny. After failing the second attempt, the captain decided to return to Baku. It was after this decision that two extraneous sounds were recorded over Grozny, 24 seconds apart.

The two separate orders to fire—approximately 20 seconds apart—and the two unexplained sounds—24 seconds apart—were both documented in earlier reports. However, the timing and connection between these events are now being overlooked. QALAMPIR.UZ compared the officially known information with newly leaked, though still unverified, materials that may prove crucial to the investigation. This report focuses on those overlooked seconds and provides an analysis of their significance.

                                                        "Shoot"

Video and audio recordings have surfaced indicating that the order to open fire on the AZAL Embraer 190 aircraft on December 25, 2024, near Grozny, was given by Russian air defense captain Dmitry Paladichuk. On July 1, the editorial team at MINVAL received an anonymous letter containing explosive materials related to the crash. The packet included a letter allegedly written by the captain of the air defense unit, stating that the aircraft was shot down on orders from the Russian Ministry of Defense, along with supporting video and audio evidence and technical details. According to the letter’s content, Paladichuk had been instructed to go on combat alert and to eliminate the target if necessary.

“In regard to the questions addressed to me, I, Captain Dmitry Sergeevich Paladichuk, state the following: I am the commander of the 274th BM and head of calculations. From December 24 to December 25, 2024, I was on combat duty protecting the city of Grozny. On December 25 at 05:40, I received the order to transfer to the 1st detachment. At 05:48, I reported the transfer via mobile communication. The connection was unstable at the position, and there were no alternative reliable communication systems. Fiber-optic cables had been laid but were not yet connected to the terminal, and no digital telephone with a dialing area was available,” the letter states.

Paladichuk reportedly gave the order to fire twice. The first missile failed to hit the target, and 18 seconds later, a second order was issued.

“At 08:11, the target detection station identified a potential target. I received a clear tracking signal from the missile launch system, which I reported to the 51st Division command post. At 08:13, I provided updated coordinates. I was then ordered to destroy the target via phone. At 08:13:30, I gave the operator the command to engage. At 08:13:33, the missile was launched. By 08:13:47, it was reported that the target had not been hit. At 08:13:48, I gave the order to engage again,” the letter says.

The video footage, in addition to the letter, offers a visual account of Paladichuk issuing the first and second fire orders, and the actions that followed.

Let us analyze the footage based on the timeline from Paladichuk’s note. The first order was given at 08:13:30. Since it had to be repeated for the missile to be launched, the actual launch occurred three seconds later. Fourteen seconds after that, it was reported that the missile had missed. Within one second, at 08:13:48, the second order to fire was given. Taking into account the 15-second interval between the first missile launch and the second order, and assuming another 2–3 seconds were needed to carry out the second order—just as with the first—it becomes clear that both strikes took place within 18 to 20 seconds.

                                          Two sounds in 24 seconds

Why do these seconds matter? That’s the whole point. The seconds were specifically mentioned in the very first official report on the crash, submitted five months ago.

At the end of January this year, the first details about the Embraer 190 crash were made public. Although the aircraft sustained damage while in Russian airspace, it ultimately crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan. According to international aviation rules, this placed jurisdiction over the investigation with Kazakhstan. A commission was therefore formed by the Kazakh government and included all relevant parties, including Azerbaijan, the country of registration. Based on preliminary findings, the commission’s report revealed a number of new details. According to the report, the main sources of fire on the aircraft were four areas: the right wing, the left wing, the nose, and the central part of the fuselage. Experts also discovered numerous open and irregularly shaped damages of various sizes on the fuselage, particularly on the tail section, vertical stabilizer, and rudder. Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing, with some holes even shaped like squares.

The investigative commission, which included Azerbaijani representatives, confirmed several other key points in its initial report. These, in our view, may be the most crucial elements. Specifically, the aircraft lost GPS signals while flying through Russian airspace, particularly over Grozny Airport. After a failed second landing attempt in Grozny, the captain decided to return to Baku. It was after this decision that two extraneous noises were recorded over Grozny within 24 seconds. Two unexplained sounds. Two. As noted earlier, the Russian captain gave the order to fire twice, within approximately 20 seconds. The first official report, submitted five months ago, also stated that two unusual sounds were heard within 24 seconds. The correlation between these two time intervals—20 and 24 seconds—could be significant for the ongoing investigation. Perhaps even decisive. We are simply comparing the seconds that caught our attention. The rest remains in the hands of the investigators. The final report is expected to be released in December this year. This was confirmed earlier by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Transport, Talgat Lastayev, during a government briefing. At that time, he also noted that both the Secretary General andthe  President of the International Civil Aviation Organization had praised the quality of the preliminary report.

So, there is no dispute over the two sounds recorded within 24 seconds. What remains under scrutiny is the authenticity of the materials published by MINVAL. While the Azerbaijani outlet reported that the letter was signed by the captain, it also noted that it could not independently verify the document’s authenticity. The editorial team stated that the decision to publish the materials was based on the six-month duration of the investigation and the high level of public interest. According to the outlet, however, the accompanying audio recordings—three voice messages confirming the letter’s contents—can be considered authentic. This means the materials may provide useful leads for Azerbaijani authorities continuing to investigate the tragedy. In short, clarity may come in five or six months. As the saying goes, even the most complex truth will eventually emerge—if not in one year, then in forty. Yet in this case, it seems the truth behind the downing of the Azerbaijani plane, which claimed 38 lives, may not take forty years to uncover. And perhaps, the key lies in those 20–24 seconds.