Midweek: Gaza's unrest, Trump's strategy, and hope for Ukraine

Turkey may face another serious natural test, with seismologists warning that this disaster could be more devastating than the earthquake that struck Kahramanmaraş in 2023.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to emphasize his serious intentions regarding Gaza, hinting at plans to transform the region into a Riviera-like area.

At the same time, potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine seem closer than ever.

Below is QALAMPIR.UZ's MIDWEEK program, detailing significant events from around the world up to the middle of this week.

Turkey Facing a Natural Test

Earthquakes have been continuing in the Aegean Sea since the end of January, particularly affecting the Greek island of Santorini (Thira). These tremors are linked to the underwater Kolumbo volcano, located about 8 kilometers from the island.

It is emphasized that seismic activity in the Aegean Sea could impact Turkey, potentially causing a tsunami if the Kolumbo volcano erupts. According to The New York Times, 13,000 out of the 15,000 people living on the island have evacuated, leaving only a few residents.

In response to the potential threat, Turkey has taken precautionary measures. The Emergency Situations and Disaster Management Authority (AFAD) installed a siren system in Bodrum to warn of a possible tsunami. AFAD teams from various provinces have arrived in the area, and population warning systems have been established in several coastal zones. The closest earthquake to the Turkish coast was recorded 140 km away.

Earlier this year, concerns were also raised about a possible earthquake in the Marmara Sea, located 400 km from Bodrum, which could have catastrophic consequences for Istanbul. An earthquake in this region could severely impact 4 million of Istanbul's 16 million residents.

Turkey's leading seismologist, Naci Görür, warned, “About four million residents of the metropolis are facing death in the event of a possible earthquake. The material losses would be unimaginable. Even the most influential institutions in Istanbul estimate that over 60 percent of the buildings in the city are not earthquake-resistant. If an earthquake occurs in Istanbul, it will be catastrophic for Turkey.”

Görür has been researching tectonic faults in the Marmara Sea for the past decade, working alongside international scientists. He explained:

“The northern part of the North Anatolian fault runs through the Marmara Sea. One segment is located south of the Princes' Islands, known as the Island Fault, while the other is the Kumburgaz Fault, extending from Yesilköy to Silivri. These two faults are blocked, accumulating energy. Once this blockage is released, an earthquake will occur.”

Seismologists predict that an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher could destroy around 90,000 buildings, render 260,000 buildings uninhabitable, and leave 4.5 million people in need of temporary shelter. Turkey's Minister of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, Murat Kurum, previously stated that such an earthquake could endanger 2.5 million people and collapse 600,000 houses in Istanbul within minutes.

The memory of the devastating earthquakes that hit southeastern Turkey on February 6, 2023, remains fresh. Measuring 7.7 and 7.6 on the Richter scale, the quakes killed over 53,500 people and injured more than 107,000. The disaster severely impacted regions like Gaziantep, Adana, and Kahramanmaraş and was recorded as the largest earthquake in Turkey since the 1939 Erzincan disaster.

This earthquake also affected northwestern Syria, including Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia. However, due to the political situation under the Assad regime, the destruction in Syria did not receive the same level of international attention as in Turkey.

The Old "Beast" Craving Gaza

On January 16, representatives of Israel, Hamas, the United States, and Qatar officially signed an agreement in Doha for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. However, the preacher of Hamas's military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade, Abu Ubayda, recently announced that the next exchange scheduled for February 15 has been postponed indefinitely. Ubayda cited Israel's failure to uphold the agreed ceasefire obligations as the reason for this decision. Since the ceasefire took effect, the Israeli army has been accused of violating the agreement, including the killing of a five-year-old girl. Additionally, Israel has reportedly prevented Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip and blocked the entry of humanitarian aid such as tents, fuel, medicine, and rubble-clearing equipment.

As expected, Hamas's decision was swiftly met with a stern response from across the ocean. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shown unwavering support for Netanyahu, demanded that Hamas release all Israeli hostages by noon on February 15. He threatened to cancel the ceasefire agreement and initiate severe military action against Hamas if the hostages were not returned by the deadline. Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, labeled Hamas's move as a "complete violation" of the ceasefire agreement and placed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza on full combat alert. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also weighed in, urging Hamas to continue releasing hostages and calling on both sides to resume peace talks.

Observing the current developments in Gaza, it appears that Palestinian statehood faces significant challenges. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House for the first time since Trump's inauguration, during which Trump openly expressed his intentions regarding Gaza. Meanwhile, King Abdullah II of Jordan, who was expected to facilitate the relocation of Gazans, had earlier met with Trump. Upcoming meetings with the Saudi Crown Prince and the President of Egypt could further impact Palestine's future. Although it seems likely that al-Sisi, Abdullah II, and the Saudi leader may oppose Trump's Gaza plans, the seriousness of Trump's ambitions is undeniable. Trump's interest in Gaza has overshadowed even his earlier discussions about Greenland. His vision of a "Middle Eastern Riviera" in Gaza remains a priority.

In a recent interview on Fox News, Trump reiterated his commitment to occupying Gaza and suggested that Palestinians living there would not be allowed to return to their homes. However, Palestinians in Gaza are determined to rebuild their properties along the Mediterranean coast and strongly oppose Trump's vision of transforming the area into a U.S.-controlled "Middle Eastern Riviera." His proposal has also faced sharp criticism from Palestinians, Arab nations, and several Western allies.

Despite this backlash, if Trump takes concrete steps to execute his plans, there may be little resistance to his imperialist ambitions. Iran is weakened by its exit from Syria, Russia is entangled in the Ukraine conflict, Turkey is focused on its operations in Syria, and Saudi Arabia shows little interest in Palestinian issues. China, preoccupied with its trade war with the U.S., is also unlikely to intervene. In short, no global power currently seems poised to challenge Trump's ambitions in Gaza.

Trump, who previously criticized U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya during his election campaigns, now appears ready to carry out a similar invasion himself. However, finding a force capable of effectively opposing his Gaza agenda remains unlikely. Only an extraordinary event, such as a possible impeachment, could halt his plans. Yet, with Republicans holding a majority in Congress, even this seems improbable.

Kyiv and Moscow at the Door of Negotiations

Late last week, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that he had spoken by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. When asked about the frequency of their conversations, Trump declined to provide specifics. According to him, Putin “really cares” about the casualties on the battlefield. It is certainly surprising to hear that Putin, widely regarded as a key obstacle to ending the three-year occupation, is showing concern for the victims. Nevertheless, discussions about potential negotiations are more prevalent than ever, and the prospect of resolving the conflict seems closer than before.

Moreover, Trump announced that he had developed a clear plan to end the war. He has assigned National Security Advisor Michael Waltz the task of organizing meetings aimed at resolving the conflict. However, Trump has made it clear that he does not intend to help Ukraine fend off Russian aggression without gaining something in return. He aims to leverage Ukraine's estimated $500 billion worth of rare mineral reserves in exchange for security guarantees in any potential peace deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump's stance aligns with his long-standing opposition to freely spending U.S. money on Ukraine.

Ukraine is known for its vast reserves of critical minerals and elements, including lithium and titanium, which are essential for modern technological production. Additionally, the country holds significant deposits of coal, oil, gas, and uranium. However, much of these resources are currently situated in areas under Russian occupation. Interestingly, President Zelensky appears open to the idea of granting the U.S. access to Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for security assurances against Russian aggression.

Regarding the possibility of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, there are indications of progress. A notable example is Keith Kellogg's role as the special representative for Ukraine, tasked with halting the invasion within 100 days. Unlike previous diplomatic efforts that were managed from Washington, Kellogg is set to visit Ukraine in person this week, from February 14 to 16, according to CNN. During his visit, Trump may also engage in a phone conversation with President Zelensky. In an interview with Fox News, Kellogg expressed confidence in Trump’s ability to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict and suggested that peace could be achieved within a few months.