Will the US join the war? What kind of “gift” has Iran prepared for it?

The main question in the Israeli-Iranian conflict is whether US President Donald Trump will decide to enter the war on Israel’s side. On June 17, following Trump’s meeting with his national security advisers at the White House, reports indicated that the next 24 to 48 hours would be decisive in determining the course of the conflict between Iran and Israel. Participants at the meeting told ABC News that by the end of this period it would be clear whether a diplomatic solution was possible; otherwise, the United States would be forced to take military action. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also stated that this was just the beginning. However, the 48-hour window has nearly passed, and so far only Iran has intensified its attacks. In its latest strikes, Iran used a heavy ballistic missile called the Sijjil, which follows an unusual, curved and zigzag trajectory. The missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers. On the morning of June 19, Iran carried out its most devastating airstrike on Israel in seven days.

Trump has yet to make a clear statement about committing the US military to the conflict. In the hours since the meeting, he stated on the White House lawn that the United States faces two options: either take action or allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. He signaled strongly to the international community that inaction was not acceptable. US troop presence in the Middle East will be further increased by the end of the week, according to Hegseth. Despite this, it remains unclear whether the United States will actually strike Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that on the evening of June 17, Trump approved a plan to attack Iran in discussions with aides but has not given the final order to execute it.

Bloomberg reported that a strike could take place between June 21 and 22. According to the publication, senior US officials are preparing for a possible attack on Iran in the coming days. At the same time, senior leadership across multiple federal agencies is also making contingency plans. Sources say Trump’s position on US intervention has shifted dramatically in recent days under pressure from Republican allies. In particular, Senator Lindsey Graham has been actively urging Trump to launch military action against Tehran.

Former MI6 chief John Sawers told the BBC that only the United States has the capability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. He explained that Israel had avoided attacking certain critical nuclear sites because it does not have the means to destroy deeply buried facilities. According to Sawers, Washington now faces a dilemma: either coordinate with Israel to finish the job or pursue a diplomatic resolution. He also warned that the wrong decision could leave Iran weakened but still able to maintain parts of its nuclear program. In his view, Israel’s true aim is to draw the United States into the war and use American military power to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities completely.

BBC political commentator Chris Mason noted that world leaders at the G7 summit remain puzzled by Trump’s true intentions in the Middle East. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that the G7 leaders discussed possible US intervention. However, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer previously emphasized that Trump’s statements did not indicate an immediate intent to intervene militarily. Nonetheless, in recent hours, the situation appears to have shifted dramatically, leaving G7 leaders guessing at Trump’s next move. Both Iran and the international community are watching closely and trying to interpret the signs.

CBS sources report that Trump has considered joining Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear sites, including its key uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. The possibility was discussed at a National Security Council meeting at the White House. However, CBS sources say Trump’s advisers remain divided. Political scientist Rajan Menon pointed out that Trump faces a serious dilemma: if he commits US forces alongside Israel, he risks reversing his previous anti-war stance; if he refuses to act, he may anger pro-Israel factions within the United States.

How will Iran respond?

As noted above, if the United States does not intervene, Israel alone may not be able to fully eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For this reason, the US is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East, deploying aircraft carriers and additional forces to the region. This signals that the likelihood of a direct clash with Iran has increased. However, analysts warn that if the US becomes directly involved, Iran will not stand by quietly. Official Tehran could escalate a regional conflict into a broader international crisis. Experts point out that Iran has several potential countermeasures. The first is direct missile strikes and attacks on military facilities. So far, Iran has not launched an attack directly targeting US bases, but it possesses a large arsenal of missiles. Should the war escalate, dozens of US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and other countries could come under attack. Roughly 40,000 to 50,000 American troops are stationed in the region. A second option is closing the Strait of Hormuz. Ismail Kosari, head of the Iranian parliament’s defense committee, has announced that Tehran is seriously considering this measure. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategic waterways, as about 20 percent of global oil shipments pass through it. The third and most dangerous option would be to disrupt trade through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by supporting the Houthis. Bab al-Mandeb is a critical passage connecting the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Iranian-backed Houthi forces could be deployed to the area, threatening maritime traffic and trade routes between Europe and Asia. In the past, Houthi operations have inflicted billions of dollars in losses by disrupting shipping in this corridor.

In addition, Iran has a wide network of “Axis of Resistance” groups — proxy forces and covert operatives spread across the region. If tensions escalate, Iran may activate this network, which includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian intelligence units operating abroad. Possible actions could range from strikes on US bases and cyberattacks to hostage-taking and other forms of asymmetric retaliation. According to analysts, direct US intervention would be viewed in Tehran not merely as a threat to the regime but as a threat to the state’s survival itself. This could turn a localized Middle Eastern conflict into a global geopolitical crisis, with consequences that are impossible to predict in advance.