Uzbekistan poised to lead economic growth in Central Asia in 2024

According to a recent report by the World Bank, Uzbekistan is expected to emerge as the frontrunner in economic growth within Central Asia in 2024. The study also projects a gradual increase in economic growth for the European and Central Asian region as a whole, forecasting a growth rate of 1.4% in 2023 and a further boost to 2.7% in 2024.

While the Central Asian region is anticipated to experience a growth rate of 1.4% in 2023, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and its aftermath introduce an element of uncertainty to future growth prospects.

However, the report highlights that the economic shocks from recent events are likely to gradually moderate, leading to an anticipated upturn in the Central Asian region's growth rate to 2.7% in 2024-2025. This positive trajectory is attributed to the normalization of inflation and fiscal policy.

Among the Central Asian nations, Uzbekistan is predicted to secure the top position in terms of growth in 2024, with an impressive rate of 5.4%. Tajikistan follows closely behind with a projected growth rate of 5%. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic are expected to achieve growth rates of 4%. Notably, Tajikistan outperforms other countries in the region for 2023 with a growth rate of 6.5%, while Uzbekistan secures the second position with a growth rate of 5.4%. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, on the other hand, exhibit relatively lower growth rates at 3.5%.

In light of these findings, Indermit Gill, the chief economist and senior vice president for economics at the World Bank Group, emphasized the precarious state of the global economy. He noted that external conditions, particularly from East and South Asia, are insufficiently dynamic to effectively address poverty, combat climate change, and enhance human capital.

Furthermore, growth in advanced economies has witnessed a deceleration, declining from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.7% this year, with a continued subdued outlook for 2024.
The eurozone's economic growth is also expected to slow down, shifting from 3.5% in 2022 to a mere 0.4% in 2023. This slowdown is attributed to the impact of tightening monetary policies and rising energy prices, which continue to weigh on the region's economic performance.

As Uzbekistan emerges as a potential leader in economic growth for Central Asia, the region as a whole faces a challenging economic landscape. The uncertain geopolitical situation and global economic trends underscore the need for concerted efforts to address various economic challenges and ensure sustainable growth for all nations in the region.