Pakistan and Afghanistan on the brink of war: causes, present situation, and historical context

In recent days, several armed clashes have erupted between Pakistani and Afghan forces in multiple border regions, sharply escalating tensions. Both sides accuse each other of attacking border posts and even seizing some positions. According to Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesman for the Taliban government, retaliatory strikes by Afghan forces killed more than 50 Pakistani soldiers. Pakistani officials, meanwhile, confirmed the deaths of 23 soldiers and claimed to have killed around 200 Taliban fighters and terrorists, destroying several border posts in response. The unfolding situation suggests that the two neighboring countries are standing on the brink of war.

In mid-October, intense exchanges of fire were reported along several points of the 2,600-kilometer-long Durand Line. Fighting took place near Angur Adda, Bajaur, Kurram, Dir, and Chitral districts in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, as well as around Bahram-Chah in Balochistan. The Afghan side announced it had seized nearly 25 Pakistani border posts.

Pakistan’s defense authorities condemned the attacks as “a vile act threatening civilians,” stressing that countermeasures were taken for self-defense. According to a statement from Pakistan’s military press office, the incident “validated Islamabad’s long-standing concern that the Taliban government continues to harbor terrorists.” The statement added that Pakistani forces repelled the attacks, temporarily captured over 20 enemy positions, and dismantled several camps used for operations against Pakistan.

During the clashes, the Torkham and Chaman border crossings were temporarily closed. Afghanistan’s Defense Ministry reported deploying tanks and heavy weapons to the border province of Kunar. Although the shooting has since subsided, residents in areas like Kurram still report sporadic gunfire. Both sides appear aware of the risks of a full-scale war, yet the underlying causes of the conflict remain unresolved, leaving the situation highly volatile.

What sparked the latest clashes?

The immediate trigger was a series of explosions on October 9 in Kabul and Afghanistan’s border province of Paktika. The Taliban government accused Pakistan’s Air Force of carrying out the airstrikes, calling them a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty. Islamabad neither confirmed nor denied involvement, but reiterated its demand that Kabul take decisive action against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group.

According to Pakistani intelligence sources, the Kabul airstrike that night targeted TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, who was allegedly operating from within Afghanistan. Reports initially suggested he had been killed, but the TTP later released audio and video messages claiming he had survived. The next day, TTP militants launched an attack on a police training center in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing nearly 20 security personnel.

In essence, Pakistan’s military sought to eliminate militants operating from Afghan territory, while the Taliban viewed this as an attack on its sovereignty and responded forcefully. Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Inayatullah Khwarazmi said the border counteroffensive was a “proportionate response operation” that ended before dawn.

“If the other side violates Afghanistan’s airspace again, our forces are ready to deliver a powerful response,” he warned.

On a broader level, the main driver of the conflict is the presence and activity of the TTP. The group, which identifies itself as the “Pakistani Taliban,” has waged an insurgency against Islamabad for years. Since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021, the TTP has grown increasingly active. According to UN Security Council reports, between 6,000 and 6,500 TTP fighters are currently based in Afghanistan.

“The most alarming aspect is that the Taliban government in Kabul does not consider the TTP a terrorist organization and has shown little willingness to take firm action against it,” the UN report noted.

Pakistan, in turn, has repeatedly urged Afghan authorities to rein in the group. “Our patience has run out,” Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif warned in late 2023, adding that if Kabul failed to act, Islamabad would be forced to defend itself inside Afghan territory. Indeed, terrorist attacks in Pakistan surged sharply in 2022–2023. Official figures show that in 2024 alone, TTP militants carried out over 440 attacks against security forces, killing at least 680 people.

Islamabad believes these attacks are fueled by Kabul’s indifference—or even covert support—for the TTP.

Tensions have also been worsened by Pakistan’s decision in late 2023 to deport all undocumented foreigners, including over one million Afghan refugees. The Taliban government harshly criticized the move, calling it “an injustice toward a brotherly nation.” Experts argue that this decision further strained already fragile relations between the two neighbors.

Historical roots of the dispute

The roots of today’s tensions run deep into history. The Durand Line, drawn by the British Empire in the late 19th century, divided Pashtun tribes between Afghanistan and what later became Pakistan. After Pakistan’s independence in 1947, Afghanistan refused to recognize the Durand Line as the official border and was the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the UN. Kabul even supported the idea of “Pashtunistan”—an independent homeland for Pashtuns living in Pakistan’s northwest—leading to a severe diplomatic crisis. In 1961, relations deteriorated to the point where the two countries briefly closed their borders.

During the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1989), Pakistan, alongside Western powers, supported Afghan mujahideen fighters, hosting millions of Afghan refugees. Although official relations were strained, Pakistan’s intelligence agency covertly armed anti-Soviet forces, including those that would later form the Taliban movement. When the Taliban took power in Kabul in 1996, Pakistan was among the three countries to recognize their regime, fostering close ties at the time.

However, after the U.S.-led coalition toppled the Taliban in 2001, the situation changed dramatically. While Pakistan formally allied with the U.S., Afghan leaders such as Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani accused Islamabad of hypocrisy—of harboring Taliban leaders and allowing them to wage war from Pakistani soil. Indeed, several top Taliban figures, including Mullah Omar and members of the Haqqani Network, were long reported to have found refuge in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

When the Taliban regained power in 2021, Islamabad cautiously welcomed the development, hoping for cooperation on border security. Yet the opposite occurred: the Taliban’s victory emboldened the TTP.

“Just as we defeated our enemies in Afghanistan, we will now achieve victory in Pakistan,” declared one TTP leader at the time.

Ironically, the very movement once backed by Pakistan has now turned against it. The Taliban government accuses Islamabad of trying to solve its domestic problems at Afghanistan’s expense, while Pakistani officials accuse Kabul of sheltering terrorists.

“They may have nuclear weapons, but we are not afraid,” a Taliban representative retorted after Pakistani officials warned of escalation. In response, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi condemned Afghanistan’s border attacks, stating, “Afghanistan is playing with fire and blood.”

Given the history of mistrust and aggressive rhetoric, a swift resolution appears unlikely.

The current Pakistan-Afghanistan standoff stems from a complex mix of historical, political, and security factors. Despite the heated exchanges, observers note that both sides are seeking to avoid an all-out war. Pakistan, though militarily superior and nuclear-armed, is already burdened by internal terrorism and economic crisis. Afghanistan, for its part, lacks a conventional army or air force capable of sustaining open warfare.

For now, the conflict remains confined to limited border skirmishes. Regional actors—including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar—have urged restraint and called for dialogue. Though formal ceasefire negotiations have yet to begin, diplomatic communication channels remain open. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi emphasized that stability between Afghanistan and Pakistan is crucial for regional peace and urged immediate de-escalation.

The future of the conflict largely depends on resolving the TTP issue. Unless Kabul and Islamabad find a way to cooperate against the group, border instability will persist. Restoring trust and overcoming decades of hostility will not be easy, but both sides understand that a full-scale war would be disastrous.

Analysts argue that while Pakistan and Afghanistan may be on the brink of war, it is not inevitable. Transparent dialogue on border security, counterterrorism, and refugee issues remains essential. The peace and stability of both nations—and the wider region—depend on the political will of their leaders and the success of upcoming negotiations.

In a world already preoccupied with crises in Gaza and Ukraine, a new conflict in South Asia would pose a serious threat to regional stability. Preventing such an outcome serves not only the interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan but also those of the broader international community.

                                                   Bekzod Pulatov